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Metoda operacyjnego prognozowania wielkości popytu uwzględniająca determinanty rynku

Mach Ł., Knosala R.

Zarządzanie Przedsiębiorstwem

2005

Vol. 8, nr 2

45-56

The article presents issues of demand forecast for ready made goods including the application of marketing - mix tools. The issues mentioned include: application of artificial neural networks methods, assigning parameters to market determiners in a market based on the implementation of marketing mix instruments, operative method of demand forecast its implementation and verification in an enterprise. The aim of the research is to develop a method of operative potential demand forecast for ready made goods which is a basic condition for timely and correct recognition of customers' behavior in the target market. To attain the objectives the following actions were scheduled to be taken: - Analysis of statistic - mathematical methods of forecast including the non-stationary character of the analyzed phenomenon, its trend, periodic, seasonal and accidental shifts: Choice of statistic - mathematical method of forecast, approximating the analyzed relationships, Determining algorithm of selected parameters for the method chosen. - Analysis of neural networks with predictive properties and specification of algorithm for the choice of the kind of network and its topology: Choice of appropriate kind of a neural network, Choice of topology network, Selection of optimum network parameters. - Identification of market determiners based on the application of marketing - mix instruments: Identification of product data, Identification of product price data, Identification of product distribution data, Identification of product promotion data, Including the initial constituent meaningful periodic rows, calculated by means of statistic - mathematical forecast method, method based on artificial neural networks. Development of operative demand forecast method, linking the statistic - mathematical method of forecast demand and a method based on artificial neural networks and its verification.