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1
Content available Study of inland waterway transport routing options under conditions of uncertainty in navigational restrictions
Pencheva Velizara, Asenov Asen, Georgiev Ivan, Ivanov Boril, Zanev Ivelin
Transport Problems
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2023
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T. 18, z. 3
89--99
EN
Given the uncertainty of the navigating conditions on the Danube River, the hydrological situation on the Bulgarian leg of the river is predicted using ARIMA methods. The forecast is based on statistical daily hydrological data for a period of five years. A mathematical routing model is developed under the condition that it is not possible for a self-propelled vessel to continue its voyage due to draft limitation. Options including waiting for navigation opening, partial lightening on a barge, and a complete or partial modal shift to rail or road transport through an alternative port are considered. An acceptable option is determined, taking into account the additional costs and transit time. A routing simulation is made using SPSS software.
2
Content available Shallot Price Forecasting Models: Comparison among Various Techniques
Kasemset Chompoonoot, Phuruan Kanokrot, Opassuwan Takron
Production Engineering Archives
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2023
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Vol. 29, Iss. 4
348-355
EN
Shallot is one of several horticultural products exported from Thailand to various countries. Despite an increase in shallot prices over the years, farmers face challenges in price forecasting due to fluctuations and other relevant factors. While different forecasting techniques exist in the literature, there is no universal approach due to varying problems and datasets. This study focuses on predicting shallot prices in Northern Thailand from January 2014 to December 2020. Traditional and machine learning models, including ARIMA, Holt-Winters, LSTM, and ARIMA-LSTM hybrids, are proposed. The LSTM model considers temperature and rainfall as influencing factors. Evaluation metrics include RMSE, MAE, and MAPE. Results indicate that the ARIMA-LSTM hybrid model performs best, with RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values of 10.275 Baht, 8.512 Baht, and 13.618%, respectively. Implementing this hybrid model can provide shallot farmers with advanced price information for informed decision-making regarding cultivation expansion and production management.
3
Content available remote Zastosowanie metody ARIMA w prognozowaniu liczby uszkodzeń przewodów sieci wodociągowych na terenie Rzeszowa
Boryczko K.
Zeszyty Naukowe Politechniki Rzeszowskiej. Budownictwo i Inżynieria Środowiska
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2010
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z.57[271], nr 3
51-59
PL
Prognozowanie przyszłych wydatków eksploatacyjnych jest kwestią kluczową w budżecie eksploatatora systemu zaopatrzenia w wodę (SZW). Prognozy pozwalają sporządzić plany przyszłych remontów. Celem pracy jest przedstawienie metody prognozowania liczby uszkodzeń przewodów wodociągowych Rzeszowa w latach 2000-2007. Prognozy wykonano z wykorzystaniem modelu ARIMA z pakietu STATISTICA 8.0.
EN
Prognostication of future exploitative costs is key issue for water supply system (WSS) exploiter's budget. Prognostications allows to create future repair plans. The aim of this paper is to present method in failure number prognostication of water-network pipes for Rzeszow in years 2000-2007. Prognostication was made using ARIMA model from STATISTICA 8.0 software.
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