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Security scenarios: 3D Printed Firearms

Rautio Samu, Broms Mika

Security and Defence Quarterly

2024

Vol. 48, No. 4

59--79

The aim of this study was to determine possible future scenarios if 3D printed firearms were to be manufactured in society. These scenarios provide a closer examination of the factors influencing the use of this relatively new method of firearms production. We reviewed the factors in 3D printed firearms that are relevant to various security authorities. Scenario analysis enables the examination of problem-solving for this multi-dimensional, multi-layered and multi-scale phenomenon. The topic was approached from a systemic perspective based on complexity thinking. The scenario-creation method employed five forecasting techniques applicable to the Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation (Carleton, 2013). A context map created the basis for factor analysis, generational arcs, white spots and expert panel. The scenarios were developed into a structural format, allowing for the description of coherent entities. Upon analysing the scenarios, it was found that the ease of manufacturing 3D printed firearms could lead to a rapid increase in their numbers, potentially resulting in decreased internal and external security. The networking of manufacturers could also enable the production of weapons for individuals who previously did not have access to firearms. On the other hand, 3D printed firearms could open up new legal uses and possibilities.