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Długookresowe tendencje obiegu wody w Kampinoskim Parku Narodowym

Gutry-Korycka M.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2002

Z. 3-4

211-223

On the basis of trends analysis concerning river flow, phreatic water states and climate elements, the problem of intensifying water deficit in the Lasica River basin is described. Receiving two scenarios of global climate changes: pessimistic GFDL and moderately optimistic GISS an estimation of effect future changes in air temperature and precipitation on percolation and runoff from the catchment is made. The basin of the Lasica River (a tributary of the Bzura) is one of the lowland regions in Poland that is particularly threatened by water deficits in different seasons and years. This is the result of relatively low annual precipitation, as well as of human activity including deforestration, drainage, intensive abstraction of groundwater and intensive development of agriculture and urban agglomerations. Water deficit can be confirmed hydrologically in long term negative trends of runoff in the Lasica and Utrata River and for phreatic groundwater at several observation points (piezometer and wells). In analysis was made an annual trends for elements of the climate precipitation and air temperature, at the stations representing the lowland Lasica basin. In estimating future changes in elements of water circulation (groundwater, evapotranspiration, retention and runoff) was made of the GFDL and GISS scenarios for global climate change. Negative trends were noted for vertical feeding of groundwater in the cases of both the pessimistic GFDL and the moderately pessimistic GISS scenario. The anticipated unfavourable conditions for the supply and renewability of groundwater coincide with significant changes (reduction) already noted in subsurface storage and the flow of the Lasica River.

Wieloletni rytm zmian opadów, stanów wód podziemnych i przepływów w małej zlewni nizinnej

Somorowska U.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

2001

Z. 3

197-207

This study investigates the long-term variations of precipitation, groundwater levels and discharge in a lowland basin. The area chosen for study is the Łasica basin (right tributary of Bzura river), situated in central Poland on the Mazovian Lowland. The dominating feature of the considered basin is a presence of wet zones that appear within low lying, flat areas constituting over 50% of the basin's area. Courses of annual values of precipitation, groundwater levels and discharge in years 1956-2000 have been analyzed. The standardized cumulative annual deviation (SCAD) according to Łozowski et al. (1989) was applied in order to determine dry and wet periods characterized respectively by negative and positive slope of the SCAD function. With respect to precipitation two distinct periods in years 1956-2000 have been observed. In years 1964-1981 significant positive slope of the SCAD function in consecutive years was detected. Negative slope has appeared in years 1981-1993. Analysis of the SCAD function applied to groundwater levels and discharge data has revealed similar tendencies. Temporal delay of SCAD functions of groundwater levels and discharge is observed in comparison to precipitation (period 1981-1993). This is due to the basin's inertia. The method of SCAD function has enabled the simultaneous analysis of three dependant variables. This study has proved the applicability of the method for detection of tendencies that appeared in long-term period.