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Probabilistic model of rear-end traffic conflict

Szymanek A.

Logistyka

2007

nr 3

CD-CD

In this paper a notion of traffic conflict "dynamics" has been defined. Described here are are problems of rear-end conflicts that is traffic conflict typical for car-following, where the only evasive action is emergency braking of following wehicle, [1]. In this context the present work is essentially connected with the same author's earlier works, [2], [3]. Dynamics of above mentioned conflicts has been defined through speed of changes of random current distance between braking vehicles. Such distance is formally described as stochastic process continuous in relation to time. A derivative of this process describes "speed" of conflict. In this work is shown, among others, diagram of conflict dynamics illustrating "speed" of increasing or decreasing of collision danger. Possibly applications of theoretical results are discussed.