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1

Krakowskie polarne badania meteorologiczne i klimatologiczne

Ustrnul Z.

Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej

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2015

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Nr 25

67--74

PL

W opracowaniu przedstawiono najważniejsze informacje o badaniach meteorologicznych i klimatycznych prowadzonych w obszarach polarnych przez pracowników Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego. Po omówieniu krótkiej historii badań polarnych i udziale w nich poszczególnych osób związanych z ośrodkiem krakowskim przedstawiono przegląd najważniejszych problemów podejmowanych w czasie tych badań. Dotyczyły one różnych szczegółowych zagadnień obejmujących przede wszystkim Spitsbergen.

EN

The study describes general information about meteorological and climatological research conducted in polar regions by the Jagiellonian University staff members as well as people from other institutions from Krakow. The short history of the polar studies and the scientific contribution of particular people is followed by the survey of main research domains, topics and problems investigated during the expeditions. They concerned detailed issues connected mainly with Spitsbergen.

2

Meteorological hazards - visualization system for national protection against extreme hazards for Poland

Wypych A., Ustrnul Z., Henek E.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2014

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Vol. 2, Iss. 1

37--42

EN

Meteorological hazard maps are one of the components of the IT System for Country Protection against extreme hazards (ISOK) created by a consortium of Polish institutions, including the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. These maps present meteorological phenomena such as: temperature extremes, heavy and flood-producing rainfall, strong winds, intensive snowfall, fogs, glaze, rime and thunderstorms with hail. These elements were chosen arbitrarily due to recorded or estimated losses. The main aim of the maps is to present visualization methods of hazard forecast with consideration of climatological (historical) background. To identify areas especially exposed to the above meteorological hazards, extensive climatological analyses were performed, based on long-term daily data (mainly the 1951-2010 period). The main component of the warning system is a set of prediction maps created automatically on the basis of scientific algorithms that provide the probability of the occurrence of particular phenomena, or the conditions favourable for them. The algorithms’ structure, based on information about physical processes in the atmosphere, as well as detailed climatological analysis, enables the reclassification of the forecast values – predicted by the ALADIN mesoscale atmospheric model – into four groups of any hazard at the gridded points. Finally, the information will be interpolated and will result in the production of maps of spatial distribution presenting the objective probability of a particular hazard, i.e. its actual risk. Results of historical analysis are to be presented for the public by a number of climatological maps, and accompanied by additional fact sheets to provide society with an actual view of the spatial distribution of the distinguished weather phenomena, and the interrelated risks.

3

Weather conditions as a factor favouring the increase of tick - borne diseases prevalence in Poland

Ustrnul Z., Stefanoff P., Czekierda D.

Roczniki Geomatyki

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2008

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T. 6, z. 2

113-120

EN

Tick-borne diseases are a severe public heath problem in Poland, which is increasingly recognized in recent years. The present analysis focuses on tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), for which data are available from Poland for a relatively long period, and is a potentially lifethreatening problem. The spatial distribution of TBE cases is described, and temporal variability during the period 1993.2006 is assessed. Most of TBE cases are reported from the North- Eastern part of Poland, although the quality of surveillance data collected in different parts of the country is not uniform. The highest number of cases was reported in 1999, and the lowest in 2003. The association of meteorological factors on TBE incidence is assessed, including air temperature parameters, precipitation, and snow cover. Analyses were attempted using seasonal, decadal, and daily meteorological measurements. Preliminary results have confirmed a statistically significant relationship between air temperature and occurrence of TBE cases. The relationship with other factors is quite probable, but confirmation requires more comprehensive data on tick-borne diseases and multivariate analysis will be necessary. The final multivariate model should include not only meteorological conditions, but also information on the environment and human behaviour.

PL

W pracy przedstawiono zagadnienie chorób odkleszczowych, które stanowią poważny problem w Polsce, zwłaszcza w ostatnich latach. Szczególną uwagę poświęcono kleszczowemu zapaleniu mózgu (KZM), które na obszarze Polski jest stosunkowo długo monitorowane i jednocze.nie bardzo niebezpieczne dla człowieka. Omówiono zróżnicowanie przestrzenne zachorowań na KZM z uwzględnieniem powiatów i gmin, a także zwrócono uwagę na zmienność w rozpatrywanym wieloleciu 1993-2006. Dane jednoznacznie wskazały, że największa liczba zachorowań notowana jest w północno-wschodniej Polsce, choć autorzy zwracają uwagę na wątpliwości co do jednorodności uzyskanych danych. W wieloleciu zanotowano znaczne różnice w liczbie zachorowań. Najmniej wystąpiło ich w 1999 roku, najwięcej w 2003. W pracy zwrócono uwagę na wpływ warunków meteorologicznych na liczbę zachorowań na KZM. Uwzględniono kilka elementów meteorologicznych, w tym: temperaturę powietrza z różnymi jej charakterystykami, opad atmosferyczny, pokrywę śnieżną. Wykonano analizy oparte na danych sezonowych, dekadowych oraz dobowych. Wstępne wyniki potwierdziły istotnie statystyczny związek pomiędzy temperaturą powietrza a zachorowaniami. Wpływ innych elementów jest prawdopodobny, ale wymaga on szczegółowych badań na bogatszym materiale badawczym i przy zastosowaniu analizy wieloczynnikowej. Powinna ona obejmować nie tylko warunki meteorologiczne, ale również inne dane o środowisku i człowieku.

4

Uwarunkowania cyrkulacyjne zachmurzenia ogólnego w strefie polarnej Europy

Adamczyk R., Ustrnul Z

Problemy Klimatologii Polarnej

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2008

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nr 18

79-88

PL

Analizowano wielkość zachmurzenia ogólnego w zależności od kierunku adwekcji mas powietrza. Materiał badawczy stanowiły dane gridowe pochodzące z bazy danych ERA 40 (1961-2000) oraz dane stacyjne z bazy danych ORNL/CDIAC – 123 NDP-026C (1972-1996). Cyrkulację atmosferyczną ujęto jako obraz pola wiatru geostroficznego. Warunki makrocyrkulacyjne powodują duże zróżnicowanie regionalne wzajem-nych zależności pomiędzy cyrkulacją a zachmurzeniem na badanym terenie. Różnice wielkości zachmurzenia podczas adwekcji mas powietrza z poszczególnych kierunków są bardziej wyraźne w analizach wykorzystują-cych dane stacyjne. Występujące różnice między wynikami analiz przeprowadzonych z wykorzystaniem danych gridowych i stacyjnych wynikają głównie z trudności w dopasowaniu położenia stacji do punktów węzłowych siatki geograficznej oraz z samego charakteru danych.

EN

The main aim of the study was the quantitative estimation of the influence of the air advection on the total cloudiness in the European polar zone. The area of interest was defined as the region located over the northern polar circle. That territory covers the large part of the Arctic Ocean with the arctic archipelagos such as: Spitsbergen, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, and the separate islands. The northern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula with the Kola Peninsula were also taken into considerations. The source data contain daily total cloudiness data originated from reanalyses ERA-40 (developed by ECMWF) for the period 1961-2000. Simultaneously, daily resolution station data from 5 stations originated from CDIAC database for the period 1972-1996 have been taken into account. Atmospheric circulation was performed as the geostrophic wind field. Geostrophic wind vectors were calculated using splines and on their basis the 9 main circulation types were distinguished (modified Ustrnul’s circulation classification). The crucial method was the calculation of anomalies of the total cloud cover in particular air flow types in two thermal and circulation different months: January and July. The analysis of cloudiness showed large regional diversity of this element in the polar zone of Europe. The relations of the total cloud cover with atmospheric circulation in maritime area were weaker than in the continental parts of research domain. On the basis of many cases was founded that cloudiness was also under influence of orography, type of the active surface, sea and atmosphere interactions. Large scale circulation with the mentioned factors causes significant regional differen-tiation of mutual connections between cloudiness and geostrophic wind vector.

5

Rola zmiennych objaśniajacych w interpretacji przestrzennej wybranych elementów klimatu

Łupikasza E., Ustrnul Z., Czekierda D.

Roczniki Geomatyki

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2007

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T. 5, z. 5

55-64

EN

In the paper, the problem of application of explanatory variables in the spatialisation methods is presented. The analysis was performed for the territory of Poland with respect to 3 main climate parameters: air temperature, precipitation totals and general cloudiness. Elaboration of meteorological/ climatological maps is a complicated task. It requires careful and detailed analysis of respective element fields and thorough knowledge of physical processes connected with the complexity of geographical environment. Simultaneously, the application of additional explanatory variables (such as altitude, aspect, land use, relative height, etc.) is highly recommended. There is no one universal spatialisation method and one explanatory variable relevant for different climatological problems and for different spatial and temporal scales. Each element and resolution requires individual approach. It was found that residual kriging is the best solution for monthly and seasonal means of air temperature and precipitation totals. Spatialisation of the precipitation totals is particularly difficult due to its highly temporal and spatial differentiation. However, for both elements and also for cloudiness the application of altitude usually improves spatialisation results. It is especially recommended for seasonal values and for larger areas. The application of circulation types . as the main predictor - usually improves spatialisation of the daily values for most climatic elements. However, the use of some non.advective types does not improve results. Maybe the application of some additional explanatory parameters should be considered (e.g. humidity, vertical profiles, air masses types, etc).

6

Metody analizy przestrzenno-czasowej w badaniach klimatologicznych (na przykładzie Polski)

Ustrnul Z., Czekierda D.

Roczniki Geomatyki

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2006

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T. 4, z. 2

147-156

EN

The main objective of the study is to present spatial and temporal methods in climatology using GIS techniques. The study is mainly based on the examples of climatological elements from the territory of Poland. Simultaneously, many examples from world literature were cited. Special importance of the European Union/European Science Foundation programme COST 719 .The use of GIS in climatology and meteorology. was stressed. First, a review of contemporary studies is presented with explanation of some terms such as .interpolation. and .spatialisation.. The principle features of the GIS, digital maps and spatial analyses were discussed. Spatialisation problems were explained on the Polish examples with special attention paid to the air temperature and precipitation. That was done with the reference to some European results. All mentioned studies clearly confirmed that there is no one universal spatialisation method efficient enough for all climatological elements. Moreover, each spatial and temporal scale may require application of other spatialisation method. Usually, the best results can be achieved with the application of methods using additional explanatory variables such as residual kriging, cokriging or multiple regression. Different geographic parameters, including elevation, latitude, longitude, land cover etc. can be used as the predictor variables for the spatialisation. When one can not find them and the coherence between analysing parameter and other variables is unknown application of ordinary kriging is recommended in the first step. The study confirms that application of circulation types as the main additional predictor (i.e. synoptic climatology method) together with GIS techniques e.g. residual kriging is a useful and promising tool for constructing climate maps at different temporal and spatial scales. The results show that climatological studies with this kind of methodological approach may have a prior cognitive as well as a practical importance. Using the .Grosswetterlagen. calendar of circulation types for this purpose for the territory of Poland has shown that each type causes a slightly different spatial distribution of e.g. air temperature both in winter and summer. Finally, there are some examples presenting GIS tools for the purposes of temporal analyses. They enable an easy calculation and display of the area with specified climatic conditions and constructing diagrams for the climate monitoring purposes. Gridded approach is strongly recommended as a promising tool for the studies with different spatial and temporal scales.

7

Wykorzystanie GIS w meteorologii, klimatologii i hydrologii

Madej P., Dyras I., Ustrnul Z., Barszczyńska M., Kubacka D.

Roczniki Geomatyki

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2005

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T. 3, z. 3

115-124

EN

GIS is a widely used tool in environmental issues. However, the operational use of GIS in meteorology is not yet very popular. This results from historical reasons as well as from the fact that the classic GIS packages are not well adapted to the needs of the atmospheric sciences. In the paper, problems of hydro-meteorological and geographic data integration are presented. Examples illustrate the possibilities of using GIS in meteorology, climatology and hydrology.

8

Analiza zmienności czasowej rozkładu temperatury powietrza w Polsce z zastosowaniem metod GIS

Ustrnul Z., Czekierda D.

Roczniki Geomatyki

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2005

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T. 3, z. 2

153-162

EN

The methods for analysing of temporal variability of air temperature are presented in the paper. Special attention is paid to the application of GIS tools. Being a leading and so-called continuous climatic element, air temperature is the best known climatic parameter and therefore makes a good base for various theoretical and practical studies. It concerns temporal analyses as well as spatial issues. In the recent years spatial analyses using GIS techniques are fairly frequent. However, there is the lack of studies devoted to temporal analyses of this particular climatic element. The paper is an attempt to use average annual and monthly air temperature for the territory of Poland. The data originate from 213 meteorological stations in Poland and in neighbouring areas ansd cover 53 years (1951-2003). The data series studied here are fully homogenous, already checked and verified earlier. Application of GIS methods also requires the use of other layers, so in the study digital terrain model (DTM), hydrographical network as well as administrative information were applied. Elevation plays the most important role in the spatial temperature distribution and determination coefficients even exceed 0.95. In the first phase the traditional, classical characteristics for temporal analysis were applied such as: linear trend, standard deviation, variation coefficient. Spatial distribution of the above mentioned measures is presented on the maps of Poland. The next step is based on the gridded values. They are available for the 10 km resolution and have been created from the air temperature maps formerly constructed by the residual cringing method. Such data enabled detailed temporal air temperature analyses for the territory of Poland as well as for individual regions. Gridded data provided the base for the construction of different diagrams showing absolute and relative temporal variability for particular territories. Digital dimension of all these graphs allows many various calculations indicating the range and intensity of the air temperature variability. The study contains only some examples of the temporal analyses from a large variety of particular cases. They are rather universal, so they can be applied for different climatic elements and for many temporal and spatial scales. That approach can be a good tool for further detailed processing as well as for formulating synthesis. All investigations confirm relatively large warming in the recent years. It concerns the whole Poland with the special regard to the central and western regions. However, due to relatively short period this trend does not allow to formulate further conclusions as to the future long-term tendency. Special attention was paid to the extreme thermal seasons of winter and summer. The results univocally show temperature increase during winter since the last years of 80s of the 20th century and they do not confirm any significant tendency for summer. All these results were received based on traditional (station) data as well as on gridded values. Application of the gridded data is quite important from the practical point and for the perspectives of climate change and variability studies. The obtained results point to the main features of the temporal thermal variability and also indicate a considerable spatial diversity not only in the mountain areas but also on Polish Lowlands. At the same time the examples presented here show that digital maps and diagrams allow for various types of calculating and analysing which may add a prominent practical dimension. The results show that climatologic studies with this kind of methodological approach may have a prior cognitive as well as practical meaning. Applied methods can be also used for other environmental elements.

9

Regionalizacje, typologie i wyznaczania sezonów klimatycznych z zastosowaniem analizy skupień

Bednorz E., Kolendowicz L., Bielec-Bąkowska Z., Bokwa A., Żelazny M., Kicińska B., Lewik P., Nowosad M., Ustrnul Z.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

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2003

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Z. 1-2

11-32

EN

In the paper are presented examples of regionalisation, typology and delimiting climatic seasons, completed with chosen cluster analysis methods: K-means, Ward's and Wroclaw dendrite. The methods were used to distinguish atmospheric circulation regions on the Northern hemisphere, thunderstorm regions and sulphur dioxide pollution regions in Poland, and snow-cover regions in North-Western Poland. Moreover, atmospheric circulation seasons, skiing seasons and thermal seasons were defined. The methods were also used for typology of thermal structure in the air layer near the ground, and for an attempt to define the relations between physical-chemical features of precipitation and meteorological conditions. The presented examples prove that it is possible to approach the problems of regionalisation and typology in climatology in a new way, namely without a priori assumptions, without imposing at the beginning the elements determining the spatial pattern of a phenomena. Additionally, it is very important that such an analysis requires from the researcher independence, responsibility and lot of criticism while interpreting the results, especially using non-hierarchical methods. Finally, the presented methods allow us to obtain the image of both spatial and temporal differentiation of chosen elements.

10

Konstrukcja map temperatury powietrza Polski z wykorzystaniem GIS

Ustrnul Z., Czekierda D.

Archiwum Fotogrametrii, Kartografii i Teledetekcji

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2003

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Vol. 13a

243--254

PL

Podstawowym celem pracy jest prezentacja metody konstrukcji map charakterystyk temperatury powietrza obszaru Polski przy wykorzystaniu metod GIS. Konstrukcja map klimatycznych technikami GIS-u wymaga dwóch rodzajów danych. Pierwszym z nich są odpowiednie dane klimatyczne, którymi były średnie miesięczne i sezonowe wartości temperatur powietrza z 223 stacji z obszaru Polski i terenów sąsiednich z okresu 1961–2000. Drugi rodzaj danych stanowiły dane środowiskowe zawierające przede wszystkim informację o rzeźbie terenu, która odgrywa najistotniejszą rolę w kształtowaniu warunków termicznych powietrza. Pozostałe warstwy stanowiły dane dotyczące sieci hydrograficznej oraz administracyjnej. Przy konstrukcji map najtrudniejszy okazał się wybór najlepszej metody. Doświadczenia z innych krajów zdecydowały, że na wstępie do szczegółowych rozważań wzięto metodę regresji, kokrigingu oraz tzw. krigingu resztowego. Ostatecznie, po wykonaniu wielu prób, ze względu na najmniejsze błędy, do konstrukcji map postanowiono zastosować metodę krigingu resztowego. W pracy jako zmienne objaśniające wartości poszczególnych temperatur przyjęto i wykorzystano: wysokość nad poziomem morza, długość i szerokość geograficzną oraz odległość od morza dla stacji położonych do 100 km od wybrzeża Bałtyku. Wymieniona metoda posłużyła do konstrukcji podstawowych map temperatury powietrza oraz różnych charakterystyk pochodnych. Zamieszczono przykłady kilku map, które świadczą, że mapy cyfrowe pozwalają na uzyskiwanie różnego rodzaju informacji często o dużym znaczeniu praktycznym.

EN

The main objective of the study is the method’s presentation of the construction of air temperature maps for the territory of Poland through the application of contemporary GIS techniques. Construction of climate maps with the application of GIS tools requires 2 types of data. Firstly, there are relevant climatic data i.e. mean monthly and seasonal temperatures from 223 stations from the entire territory of Poland and neighboring areas from the period 1961–2000. Secondly, environmental data allowing spatial representation of the particular climatic component which basically are relief model as well as hydrographic and administrative layers. Decision for the application of the most appropriate spatialisation method was the most difficult in the study. A several spatial interpolation methods have been tested: ordinary kriging, cokriging and residual kriging. The last one – residual kriging – was chosen for the map constructions due to the best verification results. Several geographic parameters, including elevation, latitude, longitude, and distance to the Baltic coast (for stations located within 100 km) were used as predictor variables for air temperature estimation. Finally using the residual kriging method different air temperature maps have been constructed. GIS approach enabled for easy calculation and display of the area with specified thermal conditions and characteristics which can be extremely useful from the practical point of view.