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Potential autonomous vehicle ownership growth in Hungary using the Gompertz model

Alatawneh Anas, Torok Adam

Production Engineering Archives

2023

Vol. 29, Iss. 2

155--161

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to bring forth a multitude of advantages for upcoming mobility.These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. There are several articles that investigated AV market share with a variety of methods, however, they show a huge variation depending on the market specifications. The aim of this research is to calculate private AV adoption rates over time depending on the Hungarian automobile market characteristics. The re-search empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of private auton-omous passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data on the basis of projected per capita GDP.The study's findings suggest that, in an optimistic and moder-ate scenario, the Hungarian car market is projected to become saturated due to AVs by 2067 and 2076, respectively. However, a pessimistic estimation indicates that saturation is unlikely to occur before 2100. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts AVs market penetration rate and saturation year, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be modified depending on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and improvement in knowledge of the studied market.

Prediction of vehicle ownership growth using Gompertz model, case study of Hungary

Torok Adam

System Safety : Human - Technical Facility - Environment

2022

Vol. 4, nr 1

164-169

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are expected to introduce numerous benefits for future mobility. These potential benefits and many others vary substantially by the market share of AVs. Therefore, this research empirically estimates, using the Gompertz function, the projected growth rates of passenger vehicles in Hungary using historical patterns of human-driven vehicle ownership data based on projected per capita GDP. This study’s contribution to the literature is through a mathematical approach that predicts passenger cars market penetration rate, in which the assumptions and the used parameters of the model can be easily modified based on different case studies, or they can be updated due to the advancement in technology and progress in knowledge of the studied market.