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The study of seismicity of Alborz (Northern Iran) and Zagros (Southern Iran) regions by using time series analysis

Rahimi Mohammad, Zamani Ahmad, Ghotbi Ali Reza

Acta Geophysica

2022

Vol. 70, no 1

27--37

Since many years ago Iran faced multiple and sometimes destructive earthquakes because of its positions in seismic Alpidebelt, the regions of Alborz (in north of Iran) and Zagros (in south of Iran) are seismically important due to their dense population and the presence of economic and strategic organization in them, these zones with their high tectonic movements and their positions in seismic Alpide-belt have high potentials for large earthquakes, and 80% of Iran’s earthquakes happen in these zones. Time series analysis comprises methods for analyzing time series data in order to extract meaningful statistics and other characteristics of the data. Time series forecasting is the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values, in this study a proper model has been proposed for the earthquakes that occurred in two regions of Alborz and Zagros during 1900−2021, in all these regions time series are analyzed individually, and proper models are proposed for the prediction of empirical recurrence rate of the earthquake with magnitudes larger than 6.0 mb. Then, a compression was made between the proposed models and the earthquakes that occurred to determine their accuracy.