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Assessment and Future Climate Dynamics in the Bouregreg Basin, Morocco – Impacts and Adaptation Alternatives

Ouharba El Houssaine, Mabrouki Jamal, Triqui Zine El Abidine

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

2024

Vol. 25, iss. 3

51--63

The hydrological regimes of all Moroccan basins are characterized by significant inter-annual variability, with alternating wet and dry years, interspersed with periods of intense hydrology or severe drought. Most watersheds are short of water. Climate change and the increasing frequency of severe events, particularly sudden drops in precipitation and widespread drought, are likely to exacerbate this situation. Like the severe drought years that hit Morocco from 1980 to 1985, 1990 to 1995, 1998 to 2002, 2011 and 2015 to 2020, the threat of drought still hangs over the country. During these years, almost all watersheds experienced water shortages, leading to overexploitation of groundwater. The aim of this research is to explain the climate of the Bouregreg watershed and the effects of climate change on its water resources. In order to preserve a more sustainable environment for future generations, it is crucial to assess the vulnerability of this area and the possible effects of climate change on hydrology. The results find after treatment of data confirmed previous research concerning the increase in temperatures and the decrease in precipitation which has been carried out in northern Morocco. RCPS scenarios (2.6; 4.5 and 8.5) shows that the research region will become dry. Getting from 0.8 to 1.3°C on an annual basis is planned for the 1920s and 2030s, as well as a modest increase in the frequency of days with summer waves.