Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is important for the planning, operation and optimization of municipal waste management system. However, it’s not easy task due to dynamic changes in waste volume, its composition or unpredictable factors. Initially, mainly conventional and descriptive statistical models of waste generation forecasting with demographic and socioeconomic factors were used. Methods based on machine learning or artificial intelligence have been widely used in municipal waste projection for several years. This study investigates the trend of municipal waste accumulation rate and its relation to personal consumption expenditures based on the yearly data achieved from Local Data Bank (LDB) driven by Polish Statistical Office. The effect of personal consumption expenditures on the municipal waste accumulation rate was analysed by using the vector autoregressive model (VAR). The results showed that such method can be successfully used for this purpose with an approximate level of 2.3% Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).
In the paper issues related to the production and utilisation of waste-derived fuel (alternative fuel) in Poland are presented. Alternative fuel comes from dry residue of waste, mostly municipal, and is treated as a waste. In European Waste Catalogue waste-derived fuel is marked with 191210 code despite their municipal, industrial or mixed origin. The production and utilisation of alternative fuel were analysed with the data from sixteen polish voivodships’ annual reports. The total amount of waste-derived fuel produced in Poland exceeds 3 million tonnes annually. It means there is no balance between the amount of production and possibility of energy recovery in Poland. In 2018 only 1,54 million tons was recovered in R1 recovery process which is only half of the waste-derived fuel produced. In addition, the entire amount of fuel is used in the cement industry. In 2018 in the cement industry 1,46 millions tons of alternative fuel was used. It is estimated that the potential use of alternative fuel by cement plants in Poland is about 1.5-1.8 million tonnes. This means that greater use of alternative fuel in the cement sector is significantly limited. The difference between in the amount of fuel produced and the amount of fuel used for energy recovery in 2018 is around 1.67 million tons. This situation has a significant impact on the economy of waste management in the field of combustible waste production.
JavaScript jest wyłączony w Twojej przeglądarce internetowej. Włącz go, a następnie odśwież stronę, aby móc w pełni z niej korzystać.