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1 Journal of Water and Land Development

1 2023

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Historical and projected land-use / land cover changes of the Welmel River Watershed, Genale Dawa Basin, Ethiopia

Ayalew Solomon E., Nigussie Tewodros A.

Journal of Water and Land Development

2023

no. 58

89--98

Human activities on land have grown significantly changing the entire landscape, while most of the changes have occurred in the tropics. The change has become a serious environmental concern at the local, regional and global scales. The intensity, speed, and degree of land use / land cover (LULC) changes are nowadays quicker compared to the past because of the development of society. Moreover, the rapid increase in population resulted in disturbing a large number of landscapes on the Earth. The main objective of this study was to detect historical (1990-2020) and predicted (2020-2050) LULC changes in the Welmel River Watershed, which is located in the Genale-Dawa Basin, South Eastern Ethiopia. The dataset of 1990, 2005, and 2020 was generated from Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 respectively to determine the historical LULC map. The result of this study revealed that agriculture/ settlement increased by 6.85 km2 ∙y-1, while forestland declined by 9.16 km2 ∙y-1 over the last 31 years between 1990 and 2020. In the coming 31 years (by 2050), if the existing trend of the LULC change continues, agriculture/settlement land is expected to increase from 290.64 km2 in 2020 to 492.51 km 2 in 2050 at the rate of 6.73 km2 ∙y-1, while forestland is expected to shrink from 690.48 km2 in 2020 to 427.01 km2 in 2050 by a rate of 8.78 km2 ∙y-1.