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Współczesny cyfrowy Atlas Malej Energetyki Wiatrowej dla Polski (AMEW-PL)

Wieczorek Joanna, Jurasz Jakub, Bochenek Bogdan, Mazur Andrzej, Strzyżewski Tomasz, Figurski Mariusz, Jaczewski Adam, Gruszczyńska Marta

Gaz, Woda i Technika Sanitarna

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2023

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Nr 5

20--26

PL

Zasoby energii promieniowania słonecznego w Polsce są dobrze rozpoznane i w perspektywie długookresowej cechują się stabilnością potencjału w czasie oraz przestrzenni. To przekłada się więc na niewielkie ryzyko inwestycyjne z punktu widzenia estymowanej w przyszłości generacji. Sytuacja jest bardziej skomplikowana w przypadku energetyki wiatrowej. A w szczególności małej energetyki wiatrowej, gdzie warunki wietrzności cechują się znacznym zróżnicowaniem przestrzennym, nawet na niewielkim obszarze, a ponadto dużą zmiennością czasową. Zależną od sytuacji meteorologicznej. Słabe rozeznanie zasobów energii wiatru na wysokości 10-20 metrów nad poziomem gruntu powoduje, iż inwestycja w źródła generacji wiatrowej jest obecnie nadal przedsięwzięciem obarczonym wysokim ryzykiem, ponieważ nie jest możliwe oszacowanie z odpowiednią dokładnością potencjalnej ilości energii elektrycznej jaka może zostać wygenerowana przez generator wiatrowy wybrany przez inwestora. By częściowo zaradzić temu problemowi i wspomóc nowych inwestorów na etapie wyboru lokalizacji inwestycji i szacowania możliwych potencjałów produkcyjnych przedstawiamy koncepcję pierwszego dla obszaru Polski cyfrowego Atlasu malej energetyki wiatrowej, z wyborem treści w formule otwartego dostępu, który dostarczy informacji na temat potencjału energii wiatru na poziomach 10, 30, 50, 80 oraz 100 m n.p.g, z rozdzielczością powierzchniową 1x1 km. Atlas w pierwszej wersji opracowany zostanie na podstawie czterech lat (2019-2022) danych godzinowych pochodzących z modelu INCA-PL 2, a wraz rozwojem szereg czasowy będzie odpowiednio wydłużany. Wykonana analiza wskazuje, na znaczące różnice w potencjale energii wiatru pomiędzy szacunkami w oparciu o model INCA-PL 2 a atlas energetyki wiatrowej prof. Lorenz w szczególności dla rejonu Dolnego Śląska. Dodatkowo wskazujemy, na silny wpływ kształtu krzywej mocy turbiny wiatrowej na wykorzystanie zasob6w energii wiatru w danej lokalizacji wyrażane w kWh generacji w skali roku na 1 kW mocy zainstalowanej.

EN

Poland's solar energy resources are well recognized and in the long term are characterized by a small variability of potential in time and space. This, therefore, translates into a low investment risk from the point of view of estimated future generation. However, this situation is more complicated in the case of wind energy. And specify in the small wind power energy, where wind conditions are characterized by significant spatial variation, even over a small area, in addition to high temporal variability. Dependent on the meteorological situation. Poor understanding of wind energy resources at a height of 10-20 meters above ground level means that investment in wind generation sources is currently still a high-risk venture, as it is not possible to estimate with sufficient accuracy the potential amount of electricity that can be generated by the wind generator chosen by the investor. In order to partially remedy this problem and assist new investors at the stage of investment site selection and estimation of possible production potentials, we present the concept of the first digital Atlas of small wind energy for the area of Poland, with a selection of content in the formula of open access, which will provide information on the potential of wind energy at levels of 10, 30, 50, 80 and 100 meters a.g.l. with a surface resolution of lx1 km. The Atlas in its first version will be developed on the basis of four years (2019-2022) of hourly data from the INCA-PL 2 model, and as it develops, the time series will be extended accordingly. The analysis shows significant differences in wind energy potential between the estimates based on the INCA-PL 2 model and the wind energy atlas of prof. Lorenz in particular for the region of Lower Silesia. In addition, we indicate the strong influence of the shape of the wind turbine power curve on the use of wind energy resources in a given location, expressed in kWh of generation per year per 1 kW of installed power.

2

Influence of computational grid resolution on the quality of forecasts of dangerous convection phenomena: a case study of August 11, 2017

Mazur Andrzej, Duniec Grzegorz

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2022

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Vol. 10, Iss. 2

106--114

EN

On August 11, 2017, a violent convection phenomenon took place in northwestern Poland, i.e., a storm combined with intense rainfall and hurricane winds. This paper presents an attempt to analyze this case by using the results of a numerical weather model, at grid spacings of 7 km, 2.8 km, and 0.7 km. Various convective indicators were analyzed to assess the nature of the event. The key question the authors try to answer is: „To what extent, if any, did a tenfold increase in resolution improve the quality of the numerical forecasts?” This question, however, has not been conclusively resolved. The most likely cause of this event was a supercell rapidly moving from south to northeast. This supercell's path has been mapped (qualitatively at least) by the Supercell Detection Index at all resolutions used. As the resolution increased, the forecasted maximum gusts also increased from 25 m/s in the domain with a resolution of 7 km to 35 m/s at a resolution of 2.8 km and up to about 50 m/s at the highest resolution of 0.7 km. A key conclusion is that the results of the model at a resolution of 2.8 km are much closer to reality than at 7 km. This effect did not pertain to differences between the 2.8 km and 0.7 km models. The latter increase in resolution did not significantly improve the quality of the forecast.

3

Three months of “Cumbre Vieja” : analysis of consequences of volcano eruption

Mazur Andrzej

Archives of Environmental Protection

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2022

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Vol. 48, no. 3

99--108

EN

The work describes the methodology and results of analysis for the consequences assessment of eruption from Cumbre Vieja volcano in Canary Islands. The preliminary analysis of dispersion of emitted pollutants was performed using Lagrangian trajectories model. To estimate long-term outcomes of eruption in terms of deposition and concentration of eruption products the Eulerian model of air dispersion was used. The model uses data from Global Forecasting System meteorological model launched at the NCEP-NOAA centre. The average concentration and deposition of sulfur compounds as well as the probability and time of the pollution cloud reaching all European capitals were examined. In 90 days a cloud of pollutants (SO2, volcanic ashes) spread over the northern hemisphere. Pollution reached Africa, North Sea and Europe. With an average emission of 15,000 tons of SO2/day, the maximum calculated deposition to the Earth’s surface reached 0.8g/m2, while overall deposition – 35 kilotons in the domain area.

PL

W pracy opisano metodykę i wyniki oceny skutków erupcji wulkanu Cumbre Vieja na Wyspach Kanaryjskich. Wstępną analizę dyspersji emitowanych zanieczyszczeń przeprowadzono z wykorzystaniem modelu trajektorii Lagrange’a. Do oszacowania długoterminowych skutków erupcji pod względem osadzania i koncentracji produktów erupcji wykorzystano eulerowski model dyspersji powietrza. W modelu wykorzystano dane z modelu meteorologicznego Global Forecasting System uruchomianego w ośrodku NCEP-NOAA. Zbadano średnie stężenie i depozycję związków siarki oraz prawdopodobieństwo i czas dotarcia chmury zanieczyszczeń do wszystkich stolic europejskich. W ciągu 90 dni chmura zanieczyszczeń (dwutlenek siarki, popioły wulkaniczne) rozprzestrzeniła się na półkuli północnej. Zanieczyszczenia dotarły do Afryki, Morza Północnego i Europy. Przy średniej emisji 15 000 ton dwutlenku siarki na dobę maksymalna wyliczona depozycja na powierzchni Ziemi osiągnęła 0,8 g na metr kwadratowy, a ogólna depozycja 35 kiloton w obszarze domeny.

4

Comparison of Free and Commercial Software in the Processing of Data Obtained from Non-Metric Cameras

Kloc Barbara, Mazur Andrzej, Szumiło Małgorzata

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2021

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Vol. 22, nr 2

213--225

EN

The main goal of the work was an attempt to compare the free and commercial photogrammetry software for processing the pictures taken with a camera drone, a traditional digital camera and a smartphone. Due to a wide range of programs on the market, four were selected for comparison (Agisoft Metashape, DroneDeploy, VisualSfM, COLMAP). Their brief description was presented, and then the photos were processed in each of them. Three sets of photographs were used for the processing (part of a residential area, photos of a building, and photos of a tree trunk). As a result, the capabilities of the selected applications were presented on the basis of various input data. Not every program was able to deliver all the desired products. Moreover, they differ depending on the software. The commercial applications have more functionalities. On the other hand, the open-source solutions allow for the development of algorithms. Working in any environment had its own characteristics. The selected applications were compared on the basis of the processing and the results obtained. Due to many aspects of their evaluation, it turned out that the research topic was very extensive. Moreover, it was found that it is very difficult to make an objective statement of the tested programs, because the same program can be scored differently, depending on the user’s needs, capabilities and knowledge.

5

The analysis of spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the multiyears 1981–2010

Grzywna Antoni, Bochniak Andrzej, Ziernicka-Wojtaszek Agnieszka, Krużel Joanna, Jóźwiakowski Krzysztof, Wałęga Andrzej, Ciupak Agnieszka, Mazur Andrzej, Obroślak Radomir, Serafin Artur

Journal of Water and Land Development

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2020

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no. 46

105--111

EN

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the spatial variability of precipitation in Poland in the years 1981–2010. The average annual rainfall was 607 mm. Precipitation in Poland is characterized by high spatial and temporal variability. The lowest annual precipitation was recorded in the central part of the country, where they equaled 500 mm. The highest annual precipitation totals were determined in the south, equaling 970 mm. The average precipitation in the summer half-year is 382 mm (63% of the annual total). On the basis of data from 53 climate stations, maps were made of the spatial distribution of precipitation for the period of the year and winter and summer half-year. The kriging method was used to map rainfall distribution in Poland. In the case study, cross-validation was used to compare the prediction performances of three periods. Kriging, with exponential type of semivariogram, gave the best performance in the statistical sense. Their application is justices especially in areas where landform is very complex. In accordance with the assumptions, the mean prediction error (ME), mean standardized prediction error (MSE), and root mean-square standardized prediction error (RMSSE) values are approximately zero, and root-mean-square prediction error (RMSE) and average standard error (ASE) reach values well below 100.

6

Estimation of Potential of Agriculture Biogas Production in the Biała Podlaska County (Poland)

Kowalczyk-Juśko Alina, Mazur Klaudia, Maciąg Michał, Pochwatka Patrycja, Listosz Agnieszka, Mazur Andrzej

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2020

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Vol. 21, nr 8

156--162

EN

By analyzing the resources of the economic infrastructure (distilleries, diaries, fruit and vegetable processing and meat processing factories) of the Biała Podlaska County, the possibilities of the biomass obtaining and creating the biogas plants basing on the agri-food industry waste were estimated. The stocking of animals was the basis for the assessment of manure and slurry resources that can be subjected to the methane fermentation process. On the basis of the data concerning the surface of the wastelands, located on the Biała Podlaska County territory, the possibilities of the biomass from special crops were specified. In the Biała Podlaska County, it was established that there are possibilities for obtaining the biomass for the biogas production: from livestock production (1 475 272 GJ/year), maize cropping in marginal lands (172 875 GJ/year) and wastes and by-products from food industry (51 081 GJ/year). The estimated potential of biogas allows for the construction of several agricultural biogas plants with a capacity of 1 MWe each, often built in Poland. The usage of the identified resources enabling the improvement of the energetic safety and also can contribute to the sustainable development of rural areas and agriculture.

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Effect of Unitary Soil Tillage Energy on Soil Aggregate Structure and Erosion Vulnerability

Wojciechowski Tomasz, Mazur Andrzej, Przybylak Andrzej, Piechowiak Jarosław

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2020

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Vol. 21, nr 3

180--185

EN

The integrated soil tillage developed in the Institute of Biosystem Engineering is based on a single pass of basic tillage, secondary tillage and sowing or planting. The integrated soil tillage enables to achieve a relatively high mechanical strength of the soil. An important element of the technology is the use of tillage roller sets which significantly influence the obtained aggregate structure and its eolic resistance. The aim of the study was to determine the influence of roller speed under various soil moisture conditions on the aggregate structure of the arable soil layer. The research was carried out on the production field in Dziećmierowo, Wielkopolska Voivodeship, Poland, on medium soil with the mechanical composition of light clay. During the research, cultivation sets with two units of Campell + Croskill platelet and studded rollers were used. For two actual soil moisture levels and five speeds within the range of 3–7 km/h, the influence of unit tillage energy at three levels of the cultivating layer (0–5 cm, 5–10 cm and 10–15 cm) was analyzed on the aggregate structure of soil and the content of aggregates with the highest resistance to wind erosion. The results of the work lead to the conclusions that it is possible to use the working speed and overloading of rollers set in integrated soil tillage trailer to manipulate the process of forming an optimal, erosion-resistant soil layer. However, it should be pointed out that for even very similar types of roller sets, the process control under different soil moisture conditions may be different and require an individual test.

8

Dependence of skill and spread of the ensemble forecasts on the type of perturbation and its relationship with long term norms of precipitation and temperature

Duniec Grzegorz, Mazur Andrzej

Acta Geophysica

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2020

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Vol. 68, no. 5

1505--1528

EN

A new computing cluster has been operating since 2016 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. Increasing computing power enabled the implementation of ensemble prediction system forecasts in the operational mode and the use of a new computer for research purposes. As part of the priority project on “Study of Disturbances in the Representation of Modeling Uncertainty in Ensemble Development” and the earlier project entitled “COSMO Towards Ensemble in Km in Our Countries), implemented in the Working Group 7 (Predictability and Ensemble Methods) as part of the COSMO modeling consortium, specifc studies were carried out to test ensemble forecasts. This research concerned the impact of variability of physical felds characterizing the soil surface (a selected parameter determining evaporation from the soil surface and soil surface temperature) using various methods of perturbation. Numerical experiments were completed for the warm period (from June to September) 2013.

9

The Assessment of the Amount of Soil Material Deposited on the Bottom of a Dry Erosive-Denudation Valley

Mazur Andrzej, Obroślak Radomir, Nieścioruk Kamil

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2019

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Vol. 20, nr 11

210--216

EN

The work presents the results of research on erosion and landform changes of a bottom of a dry erosive-accumulation valley in Elizówka in 1958, 1970 and 2016. The changes have been examined with the use of geodetic topographic surveys techniques. The research field was a 480-metres long part of the valley bottom. The topographic surveys in 1958 and 1970 were conducted with longitudinal (parallel to the bottom of the valley) and cross (every 20 metres) sections method. In 2016 the modern measuring devices were used. All the results, together with coordinates of points and historical data were converted into GIS spatial layer. The altitude values formed the input data for interpolation of rasters showing changes of the topography in three periods. Three TIN models were also developed to distinguish erosion and accumulation zones plus the quantity of eroded and accumulated material. The valley on the majority of its length has been raised and has changed from V-shaped into U-shaped. Accumulation of the soil material led to levelling the bottom. Accumulation concentrates along a flow line, while soil washout mainly at the bottom of slopes. The thickest sediment layers were observed in the lowest part. For the whole 1958–2016 period a total of 3470 m3 soil material has been deposited on the area of about 1.62 ha, while in the same time only 130 m3 has been eroded (from 0.22 ha).

10

Development of the Edge of the Gully in the Zone Adjacent to the Field

Rybicki Roman, Obroślak Radomir, Mazur Andrzej, Grzywna Antoni, Serafin Artur

Journal of Ecological Engineering

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2019

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Vol. 20, nr 1

238--244

EN

The development of the side arm edge of the valley-gully in Gałkowice village in the Dwikozy commune (the Opatówka catchment in the Sandomierz Upland) was investigated during the period from 2002 to 2017. An increase of fragmentation of the gully edge was found. Most of the pre-existing erosive indents increased in size (maximum of 2.8 m – about 0.2 m per year). An increase in the area of the gully by 145 m2 was found. As a result, the boundary of plow tillage shifted to an average of 1.5 to 2 meters (maximum 3.8 m), which resulted in a loss of 545 m2 of adjacent arable land. As the main reason for the development of the analyzed section of the gully, meltwater flows were considered.

11

Hypothetical accident in Polish nuclear power plant. Worst case scenario for main Polish cities

Mazur Andrzej

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. S

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2019

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Vol. 26, nr 1

9--28

EN

Poland is under threat of potential accidents in nuclear power plants located in its close vicinity, in almost all neighboring countries. Moreover, there are plans to establish a new nuclear power plant in Polish coast. In this paper the analysis of atmospheric transport of radioactive material released during a potential accident in the future nuclear power plant is presented. In the first part of study transport of radioactivity as seen from the long time perspective is analyzed. This involves trajectory analysis as a tool for describing the statistics of air pollution transport pattern and screening the meteorological situations for episode studies. Large sets of meteorological data for selected episodes were stored as a result of this process. Estimation of risk includes both analysis of the consequences and probability analysis of an occurrence of such situation. Episodes then were comprehensively studied in the second phase of the study, using the Eulerian dispersion model for simulation of atmospheric transport of pollutants. This study has proven that the time needed for reaction in case of (hypothetical) accident is enormously short.