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Assessing logistic factors and forecasting their impact on economic growth: the example of Kazakhstan

Raimbekov Zhanarys, Sharipbekova Kunduz, Syzdykbayeva Bakyt, Turginbayeva Ardak, Sładkowski Aleksander

Transport Problems

2022

T. 17, z. 4

41--54

This article assesses the impact of the development of logistics systems (LS) on the efficiency of the economy. A multi-level methodology for assessing the impact of LS on the economy consisting of six stages (transport, investment, economic, information, material and technical, labor and infrastructure) is proposed using a dynamic structural model for a group of macroeconomic logistical factors for the period 2009-2020 for the republic and the regions of Kazakhstan. Their close relationship with economic growth has been established. Based on the results of factorial and index methods of analysis, mechanisms of differentiation in the management of the regional economy are proposed based on the level of development of logistics and their impact on the growth of the regional economy. Four groups of regions are identified according to the level of development of logistics and their impact on the economy, and directions for their further development are proposed. The forecast is based on the studied factors up to 2030. In particular, it has been established that for the long-term development of the economy of Kazakhstan, the development of agriculture and industry, investment in fixed assets, freight turnover, the availability of vehicles, wages, communication services, and the density of the railway network are important factors.

Assessing the impact of transport and logistics on economic growth in emerging economies: a case study for the conditions of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Raimbekov Zhanarys, Syzdykbayeva Bakyt

Transport Problems

2021

T. 16, z. 2

199--211

This article examines the link between logistics indicators and economic growth in Kazakhstan in the period 1995-2019. Factors and the causal relationship between the indicators of transport development and economic growth, using the models of total production, demand and vector error correction, are studied. The analysis established specifics of the relationship between indicators of various types of transport and economic growth and their mutual influence, both in terms of directions and the nature of the relationship. A bi-directional cause-and-effect relationship between railway transport infrastructure and economic growth has been identified according to the Granger test. It was found that in a small economy, road and sea transport in the long term will lead to a higher rate of economic growth, and vice versa, economic growth encourages the development of pipeline transport and this in turn, in a one-way direction, stimulates the development of all other types of transport. It was revealed that economic growth in Kazakhstan leads to an increase in demand for transport and logistics services and their infrastructure to a lesser extent than in countries with large economies. To improve the effectiveness of the economy, a differentiated approach to transport policy is recommended depending on the highlighted long-term relationship between the studied parameters. Our research indicates that conditions for road and sea transport in Kazakhstan should be improved to stimulate economic growth. The results of the study can be used as recommendations for developing a long-term transport policy.