Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

1

Selected polynomial identification techniques to evaluate maritime transport trends around Covid-19

Borucka Anna, Kozłowski Edward

Zeszyty Naukowe. Transport / Politechnika Śląska

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2023

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z. 120

51--68

EN

The Covid-19 pandemic has drastically affected the transport sector, because of the restrictions introduced to limit the spread of the threat. They concerned primarily passenger traffic, but trade in goods also faced completely new challenges, related to increased consumption and the dynamic development of e-commerce on the one hand and restrictions related to the pandemic and sealing borders on the other. One of the most susceptible to fluctuations in international trade is the maritime economy, which has been analysed in this article. It was checked how the global threat affected sea traffic in terms of gross weight of goods handled in main ports. The aim of the study was to characterize the impact of the pandemic on sea transport depending on the type of ship and to evaluate the current state of sea transport in the context of the level shaped by forecasts based on observations from before the coronavirus pandemic. The authors' assumption was to check whether the rail transport market has already reached the level it could reach in the absence of the virus threat. The use of a polynomial function was proposed for the study. Time series containing observations up to the outbreak of the pandemic and forecasts based on them, as well as time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analysed. The study results obtained allowed to conclude how the global crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic affected the cargo traffic in the sea transport, expressed by the mass of goods transshipped in major ports, depending on the individual types of ships.

2

Assessing the possibility of improving rescue operations with the use of UAVs. Case studies from wielkopolskie province

Gładysz Piotr, Parczewski Rafał, Borucka Anna

Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej

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2023

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Nr 86

191--203

EN

The growing intensity of fire hazards is increasing the need for incorporating aerial vehicles — including unmanned aerial vehicles, which are now becoming a valuable tool in the hands of various state bodies and institutions, including the State Fire Service (SFS) in Poland, in supporting activities aimed at saving human life, health or property. The article presents the characteristics and purpose of the SFS and the range of tasks performed by it, as well as key problems in this area. Examples of the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in firefighting activities were also presented. It was pointed out that improving the ability of SFS to carry out tasks should be a priority, especially in an era of cyclical threats arising from human activity or environmental forces, and the continued growth of technology means that unmanned aerial vehicles can provide increasing support. The purpose of the article was to present the scale and level of a fire threat and to indicate the potential of UAVs in combating it. The research was conducted on the example of a selected region. The article uses the case study method: 3 examples are presented to support rescue operations using unmanned aerial vehicles. Descriptions of cases are supplemented by operational conclusions and recommendations. It was assumed (research hypothesis) that the large-scale use of unmanned systems for search and rescue operations in the SFS would not only affect the speed and effectiveness of the response, but also enhance the level of safety of the officers involved. The authors also emphasise the need of creating a new unit in the structures of the State Fire Service, which would deal exclusively with the implementation of tasks related to the processing, management, analysis and placement on the map of the necessary data on the hazards. This would make preventive measures more effective.

PL

Rosnące natężenie zagrożeń pożarowych zwiększa potrzebę włączania do działań statki powietrzne, w tym bezzałogowe statki powietrzne, które stają się obecnie cennym narzędziem w rękach różnych organów i instytucji państwowych, w tym Państwowej Straży Pożarnej (PSP) w Polsce, we wspieraniu działań mających na celu ratowanie życia, zdrowia lub mienia. W artykule przedstawiono charakterystykę i cel PSP oraz zakres realizowanych przez nią zadań, a także kluczowe problemy w tym obszarze. Zaprezentowano również przykłady wykorzystania bezzałogowych statków powietrznych (BSP) w działaniach gaśniczych. Wskazano, że doskonalenie zdolności PSP do realizacji zadań powinno być priorytetem szczególnie w dobie cyklicznych zagrożeń wynikających z działalności człowieka lub sił natury, a ciągły rozwój technologii sprawia, że bezzałogowe statki powietrzne mogą stanowić coraz większe wsparcie. Celem artykułu było przedstawienie skali i poziomu zagrożenia pożarowego oraz wskazanie potencjału bezzałogowych statków powietrznych w jego zwalczaniu. Badania przeprowadzono na przykładzie wybranego regionu. W artykule wy korzystano metodę studium przypadku: przedstawiono trzy przykłady wsparcia działań ratowniczych z wykorzystaniem bezzałogowych statków powietrznych. Opisy przypadków uzupełniono wnioskami i rekomendacjami operacyjnymi. Założono (hipoteza badawcza), że wykorzystanie na szeroką skalę systemów bezzałogowych do działań poszukiwawczo-ratowniczych w PSP wpłynie nie tylko na szybkość i skuteczność reagowania, ale także podniesie poziom bezpieczeństwa za angażowanych funkcjonariuszy. Autorzy podkreślają również potrzebę utworzenia w strukturach Państwowej Straży Pożarnej nowej komórki, która zajmowałaby się wyłącznie realizacją zadań związanych z przetwarzaniem, zarządzaniem, analizą i umieszczaniem na mapie niezbędnych danych o zagrożeniach. Dzięki temu działania prewencyjne byłyby bardziej skuteczne.

3

A road safety evaluation model in the context of legislative changes

Borucka Anna, Sobecki Grzegorz

Transport Problems

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2023

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T. 18, z. 3

41--51

EN

Road accidents are affected by various factors, but many of them are not monitored and collected, and some of them are not even known. Important factors that are often overlooked in research are legislative issues and legal changes regulating road safety, which are the subject of the study in this article. As it is extremely difficult to prove a significant influence of these factors and, therefore, to demonstrate that the impact of legislative changes on the number of road accidents is significant, this variable was considered while analyzing the impact of other variables, which, in the authors' opinion, were the most important and, above all, known over the period in question. Day of the week, month, and year are selected. It was decided that other factors influencing the decreasing number of accidents would be included in the trend. With this assumption, the analysis of an additional variable that marks the periods of changes in legal regulations and the confirmation of its significant impact on the number of accidents will allow us to conclude that it is an important element shaping road safety.

4

Wiarygodne prognozy kluczem do usprawnienia realizacji zamówień

Guzanek Patrycja, Sobecki Grzegorz, Bawoł Piotr, Borucka Anna

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

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2023

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nr 1

31--39

PL

Celem artykułu jest wskazanie różnic między ogólnodostępnym narzędziem prognozującym wykorzystywanym w planowaniu dostaw a dedykowanym, stworzonym specjalnie dla danej firmy. Autorzy na podstawie przeprowadzonych badań ukazują różnice w działalności sieci sklepów, prognozowaniu dostaw i ich wartości z użyciem dwóch różnych systemów wspomagających prognozowanie sprzedaży produktów. Przyjęto hipotezę badawczą, że wiarygodne prognozy są kluczowe w usprawnianiu realizacji zamówień i stanowią istotny czynnik wpływający na satysfakcję klienta oraz zdobywanie przewagi konkurencyjnej.

EN

The aim of the article is to indicate the difference between a publicly available forecasting indicator used in supplier planning and one created specifically for a given company. The authors based on the results of comparative research in the operation of chain stores, forecasting deliveries and their value with the use of various systems supporting the forecasting of product supply. A research hypothesis was adopted that reliable forecasts are crucial in improving order fulfillment and are an important factor influencing customer satisfaction and gaining a competitive advantage.

5

Evaluation of the maintenance system readiness using the semi-Markov model taking into account hidden factors

Kozłowski Edward, Borucka Anna, Oleszczuk Piotr, Jałowiec Tomasz

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

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2023

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Vol. 25, no. 4

art. no. 172857

EN

Modelling the time that the system remains in a given state using classical distributions is not always possible. In many cases, empirical distributions are multimodal due to the influence of external, hidden factors and the selection of the best classical distributions may lead to erroneous results. In the article the method of diagnosis of influence of hidden factors into sojourn time of semi-Markov models was presented. In order to capture hidden factors, the authors proposed to model the distributions of the sojourn time with a mixture of distributions, which is a significant novelty in relation to the studies presented in the literature. Hidden factors directly affect the reliability of technical systems. Detecting the existence of these factors enables more accurate modeling of system readiness. Paying attention to irregularities caused by hidden factors makes it possible to reduce system maintenance costs. Such a system model providescomplete information and enables a reliable assessment of the system readiness and maintenance.

6

Modeling the dynamics of changes in CO2 emissions from Polish road transport in the context of COVID-19 and decarbonization requirements

Borucka Anna, Kozłowski Edward

Combustion Engines

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2023

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R. 62, nr 4

63--70

EN

Emissions from transport account for 20-25% of anthropogenic global carbon dioxide emissions [17, 37], with more than 70% coming from road transport, making it an extremely important topic in the context of decarbonization. The aim of the article is to analyze the trend of CO2 generated from road transport, taking into account various sources, and also to examine how reduced mobility during the pandemic affected the emissions at the time. For this purpose, a time series containing observations up to the pandemic outbreak and a time series containing additional observations from the pandemic period were analyzed. For each time series, a trend was determined and described by a polynomial and then verified to see if the pandemic phenomenon significantly affects a parameter of the proposed model, using appropriate statistical tests.

7

Maintaining technical readiness in the context of military exploitation systems

Borucka Anna

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

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2023

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Vol. 71, nr 5

art. no. e146619

EN

Readiness and reliability is a special attribute of rescue systems (army, police, fire service), where performance at the highest level is more important than economic efficiency. For this reason, special attention is given to the process of renewal of technical objects. In such systems, a preventive strategy is most often used. Though this is a safe model, it does not always take into account the specifics of the use of a technical object. Moreover, in some situations, it forces the end of life of a device that could still continue to operate as intended. The article analyzes precisely such technical objects, removed from operation after just 10 years of use. It was shown that such approach is not justified and that modern management strategies must be implemented also in relation to machinery and equipment operating in rescue systems. The most important achievements of the article are the use of reliability analysis methods in the systems where it is not common, and the indication of the benefits of such analysis. It has been shown that knowing the characteristics of reliability, you can consciously control each process and make decisions in this regard based on the technical condition of the facility and not on instructions. In the case under study, this would make it possible to undermine the decision to withdraw the analyzed objects from operation.

8

Predicting the seasonality of passengers in railway transport based on time series for proper railway development

Borucka Anna, Guzanek Patrycja

Transport Problems

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2022

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T. 17, z. 1

51--61

EN

Planning the frequency of rail services is closely related to forecasting the number of passengers and is part of the comprehensive analysis of railway systems. Most of the research presented in the literature focuses only on selected areas of this system (e.g. urban agglomerations, urban underground transport, transfer nodes), without presenting a comprehensive evaluation that would provide full knowledge and diagnostics of this mode of transport (i.e. railway transport). Therefore, this article presents methods for modelling passenger flow in rail traffic at a national level (using the example of Poland). Time series models were used to forecast the number of passengers in rail transport. The error, trend, and seasonality (ETS) exponential smoothing model and the model belonging to the ARMA class were used. An adequate model was selected, allowing future values to be forecast. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model follows the tested series better than the ETS model and is characterised by the lowest values of forecast errors in relation to the test set. The forecast based on the ARIMA model is characterised by a better detection of the trends and seasonality of the series. The results of the present study are considered to form the basis for solving potential rail traffic problems, which depend on the volume of passenger traffic, at the central level. The methods presented can also be implemented in other systems with similar characteristics, which affects the usability of the presented solutions.

9

Information in the decision-making process

Ściborek Zbigniew, Borucka Anna

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

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2022

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Vol. 56, no. 1

147--160

EN

The thesis that the variability of conditions in which organizations operate has an impact on the decisions made about their functioning is the starting point for achieving the research objective and presenting the research findings. The objective of the research was to demonstrate the importance of the information system in the organization and to visualize the impact of information on the decision-making process, also in terms of shaping the future. The analysis of a number of theoretical studies has led to conclusions that unequivocally prove that every decision should be based on reliable information. This is strongly emphasized in the article. The main methods used were literature analysis, synthesis, mathematical modeling and desk research. In addition, the paper presents tools for describing the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of random phenomenon, i.e., for assessing the amount of information conveyed by the observation of random phenomenon and for comparing two variables with different information potential. The analyses conducted clearly indicate that decision making and information must be closely linked. The results of the research inquiries in the publication also indicate the role to be played by the information system in the organization. It contains the state-ment that no decision can be made without information. The approach adopted in the article allowed for presentation of essential research findings, while providing a basis for further, extended research on this extremely important and topical issue, especially in the context of the internationalization of a number of phe-nomena and processes.

PL

Teza, że zmienność warunków funkcjonowania organizacji nie pozostaje bez wpływu na dokonywane rozstrzygnięcia związane z ich funkcjonowaniem, jest punktem wyjścia do osiągnięcia założonego celu i prezentacji wyników badań. Celem podjętych badań było wykazanie znaczenia systemu informacyjnego w organizacji i unaocznienie wpływu informacji na proces decyzyjny, także pod kątem kształtowania przyszłości. W wyniku analizy wielu opracowań teoretycznych, także zawierających wyniki przeprowadzonych badań, wysnuto liczne wnioski. One to jednoznacznie dowodzą, że podstawą każdego rozstrzygnięcia powinna być wiarygodna informacja. Jest to mocno podkreślone w artykule. Ukazano również potrzebę podejmowania działań ukierunkowanych na zdobycie, w miarę szybko, nieodzownych informacji, aby stworzyć podstawy do korzystnych rozstrzygnięć dla firm, które funkcjonują w zmieniających się warunkach. Nieodzowne są także wysokie kompetencje informacyjne menedżerów. Przeprowadzone analizy jednoznacznie wskazują, że decydowanie i informacja muszą być ze sobą ściśle pozwiązane. Wyniki dociekań naukowych zawarte w publikacji wskazują również na rolę, jaką ma spełniać system informacyjny w organizacji, który choć składa się z trzech etapów, to są one logicznie powiązane, fazy te charakteryzuje pragmatyzm naukowy. Zawarto twierdzenie, że bez informacji nie ma decyzji. W artykule przyjęte podejście umożliwiło uzyskanie przekrojowego charakteru prezentacji wyników badań, dając jednocześnie podstawy do dalszych, poszerzonych badań tego niezwykle istotnego oraz aktualnego problemu, zwłaszcza w kontekście umiędzynarodowiania wielu zjawisk i procesów.

10

Adaptation of selected digital solutions in the field of military logistics

Lisnik Anton, Chomacki Arkadiusz, Borucka Anna, Parczewski Rafał, Markiewicz Grzegorz, Pęzioł Anna

Systemy Logistyczne Wojsk

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2022

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Vol. 56, no. 1

17--33

PL

Czwarta rewolucja przemysłowa i związana z nią transformacja cyfrowa rozwija się niezwykle dynamicznie wprowadzając istotne ulepszenia w przemyśle. Szczególnie obecna jest w procesach wytwórczych, zmieniając w sposób fundamentalny funkcjonowanie przedsiębiorstw. Jednak wiele rozwiązań technologicznych stosowanych w tym obszarze może być z powodzeniem wykorzystane również na innych płaszczyznach. Jedną z nich są siły zbrojne. W artykule autorzy dokonali analizy przykładowego procesu funkcjonowania żołnierzy w toku codziennego porządku dnia aby wskazać, że możliwie jest zastosowanie prostych rozwiązań z zakresu elektronicznego zbierania danych i uzyskanie wymiernych korzyści. Tak też określono główny cel badania. Aby go zrealizować autorzy dokonali szczegółowej analizy i oceny wy-branego procesu (ewidencjonowanie faktu opuszczania pododdziału przez podchorążych) wskazując jego niedoskonałości. Na tej podstawie zaproponowali rozwiązanie optymalizujące jego najważniejsze parametry (czas, niezawodność). Zaproponowane rozwiązanie, polegające na wykorzystaniu rejestratorów zbliżeniowych i błyskawicznym odczycie danych wychodzącego żołnierza pozwoliło na rozwiązanie problemu badawczego tj. odpowiedzi na pytanie: czy możliwe i zasadne jest wsparcie wybranych procesów funkcjonowania żołnierzy na pododdziale z wykorzystaniem nowoczesnych narzędzi przemysłu 4.0? Pozwoliło to zweryfikować hipotezę badawczą zakładającą, że zastosowanie prostych narzędzi wykorzystujących nowe technologie może w istotny sposób usprawnić funkcjonowanie badanego procesu. Osiągnięcie założonego celu badania było możliwe dzięki wykorzystaniu takich metod, narzędzi i technik badawczych jak analiza literatury, synteza, metoda obserwacyjna, analiza statystyczna, porównanie i wnioskowanie. Artykuł składa się ze wstępu a następnie z przeglądu literatury z obszaru zarówno rewolucji przemysłowej jak i modernizacji sił zbrojnych. Zasadniczą część stanowi badanie statystyczne czasów trwania procesu wypisywania się podchorążych w niezbędnej dokumentacji podczas opuszczania miejsca zakwaterowania, jego charakterystyka i ocena. Na tej podstawie zaproponowano możliwe rozwiązanie stwierdzonych niedociągnięć. Artykuł wieńczy podsumowanie przeprowadzonych analiz i wnioski końcowe, a także rekomendacje w zakresie dalszych analiz.

EN

The fourth industrial revolution is especially present in manufacturing processes. However, many technological solutions used in this area can also be successfully used on other levels. One of them is the armed forces. In the article, the authors analysed a process of the soldiers functioning in the course of the daily routine to indicate that it is possible to apply simple solutions in the field of electronic data collection and obtain measurable benefits. This is also how the main aim of the study was defined. The authors made a detailed analysis and evaluation of the selected process, pointing to its imperfections and proposing a solution that would optimize its most important parameters (time, reliability). The proposed solution, involving the use of proximity recorders made it possible to solve the research problem, i.e. to answer the question: is it possible and justified to support selected processes of the functioning of soldiers in a sub-unit with the use of modern logistics 4.0 tools? This allowed to verify the research hypothesis that the use of simple tools using new technologies can significantly im-prove the functioning of the examined process. The following research methods, tools and techniques were used: literature analysis, synthesis, observational method, statistical analysis, comparison and inference. The article consists of an introduction and then a review of the literature. The main part is a statistical study. Based on this, a possible solution to the identified shortcomings was proposed. The article ends with a summary and final conclusions.

11

The role of border guard in ensuring seaport security

Parczewski Rafał, Chomacki Arkadiusz, Borucka Anna

Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Morskiego

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2022

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XVI

1--16

EN

The Border Guard (BG) has a very important function in ensuring the proper protection of the state border. Poland's accession to the Schengen Area itself has contributed to the freedom of movement within the territory of the Parties to the Agreement. The above event imposed a number of duties and powers on various services in Poland, including the Border Guard. Supervision over exploitation of Polish maritime areas is undoubtedly a responsible task performed by the Border Guard. The quality of the border checks on persons or means of transport contributes to an adequate level of security. The article presents the organizational structure of the Border Guard and the Maritime Unit of the Border Guard with head-quarters in Gdansk. Based on the data obtained from the Border Guard, the number of border checks performed at the Border Guard posts operated by the Maritime Unit of the Border Guard (MUBG) is presented. The presented numbers of disclosures of various negative incidents by the Border Guard officers show the scale of threats that may exist in Polish maritime areas. The large number of border checks carried out by Border Guard officers, accompanied by a high rate of detected crimes and offences, only proves the commitment and professionalism of the said service.

12

Identification of the personality factors of the driver and road safety

Stasiak-Cieślak Beata, Borucka Anna

Gospodarka Materiałowa i Logistyka

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2022

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nr 10

15--20

EN

The study presents an overview of the available research results concerning the analysis of the impact of factors characteristic for the behavior of road users that influence road accidents. Intellectual fitness, personality and temperament as well as psychomotor skills were analyzed. The aim of the article is to present the current results in terms of selected psychological factors, i.e. intellectual performance, personality and temperament traits as well as psychomotor performance in the field of road safety. It is also the basis for setting directions for further research in this field.

PL

Opracowanie przedstawia przegląd dostępnych wyników badań dotyczących analizy oddziaływania czynników charakterystycznych dla zachowań uczestników ruchu drogowego, mających wpływ na wypadki drogowe. Analizie poddano sprawność intelektualną, osobowość i temperament oraz zdolności psychomotoryczne. Celem artykułu jest przedstawienie dotychczasowych wyników w zakresie wybranych czynników psychologicznych, tj. sprawności intelektualnej, cech osobowości i temperamentu oraz sprawności psychomotorycznej w zakresie bezpieczeństwa ruchu drogowego. Jest to również podstawa do wyznaczania kierunków dalszych badań w tym zakresie.

13

Assessment of the possibility of using nanomaterials as fuel additives in combustion engines

Jaroń Agata, Borucka Anna, Sobecki Grzegorz

Combustion Engines

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2022

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R. 61, nr 2

103--112

EN

Nanomaterials are a new group that has quickly found a wide range of applications in medicine, cosmetology, the food, weapons or automotive industry. They are also used as a fuel additive. This paper reviews the literature and assesses the current state of knowledge regarding the use of nanoparticles in automotive engine fuels. The results obtained so far are presented and further research directions in this field are identified.

14

Evaluation of air traffic in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic

Borucka Anna, Parczewski Rafał, Kozłowski Edward, Świderski Andrzej

Archives of Transport

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2022

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Vol. 64, iss. 4

45--57

EN

The Covid-19 pandemic unexpectedly shook the entire global economy, causing it to destabilize over a long period of time. One of the sectors that was particularly hit hard was air traffic, and the changes that have taken place in it have been unmatched by any other crisis in history. The purpose of this article was to identify the time series describing the number of airline flights in Poland in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic. The article first presents selected statistics and indicators showing the situation of the global and domestic aviation market during the pandemic. Then, based on the data on the number of flights in Poland, the identification of the time series describing the number of flights by airlines was made. The discrete wavelet transformation (DWT) was used to determine the trend, while for periodicity verification, first statistical tests (Kruskal-Wallis test and Friedman test) and then spectral analysis were used. The confirmation of the existence of weekly seasonality allowed for the identification of the studied series as the sum of the previously determined trend and the seasonal component, as the mean value from the observations on a given day of the week. The proposed model was compared with the 7-order moving average model, as one of the most popular in the literature. As the obtained results showed, the model developed by the authors was better at identifying the studied series than the moving average. The errors were significantly lower, which made the presented solution more effective. This confirmed the validity of using wavelet analysis in the case of irregular behaviour of time series, and also showed that both spectral analysis and statistical tests (Kruskal-Walis and Fridman) proved successful in identifying the seasonal factor in the time series. The method used allowed for a satisfactory identification of the model for empirical data, however, it should be emphasized that the aviation services market is influenced by many variables and the forecasts and scenarios created should be updated and modified on an ongoing basis.

15

An Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Number of Safety Incidents in Civil Aviation

Guzanek Patrycja, Borucka Anna

Safety & Defense

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2021

|

2

105--118

EN

Aviation is the youngest of the transport industries, yet despite its short history, it is considered one of the most important spheres of transport, both in terms of passenger and cargo transportation. Civil aviation is used by an increasing number of people, and the number of aircraft used by airlines around the world continues to grow. An inherent element that is a particularly important aspect of this mode of transportation is security. In civil aviation, there are numerous dangers associated with events occurring before the flight, during the flight, as well as those associated with the landing process. The events need to be controlled and their causes actively sought and ultimately prevented. The Polish Civil Aviation Authority, as part of the creation of the National Civil Aviation Safety Program, developed the National Safety Plan 2020-2023. The document covers threats identified in the Systemic, European, and National Areas. They are characterized and classified based on the materiality (significance) of the event. The aim of this article is to characterize and analyze selected factors (e.g. collisions with birds, helicopter events) that affect the number of safety incidents in civil aviation. The background of the study was the analysis and synthesis of the literature on the subject, while the main research method was the statistical analysis of historical data on aviation incidents. The data provided in Poland's National Security Plan 2020-2023 were used to distinguish the factors associated with the threats present and synthetically evaluate their impact. The analyses made it possible to identify areas of particular safety risks and form the basis for further detailed research.

16

Influence of meteorological conditions on road accidents. A model Indexed by: for observations with excess zeros

Borucka Anna, Pyza Dariusz

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

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2021

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Vol. 23, no. 3

586--592

EN

Road accidents are one of the basic road safety determinants. Most research covers large territorial areas. The results of such research do not take into account the differences between individual regions, which often leads to incorrect results and their interpretation. What makes it difficult to conduct analyses in a narrow territorial area is the small number of observations. The narrowing of the research area means that the number of accidents in time units is often very low. There are many zero observations in the data sets, which may affect the reliability of the research results. Such data are usually aggregated, which leads to information loss. The authors have therefore applied a model that addresses such problems. They proposed a method that does not require data aggregation and allows for the analysis of sets with an excess of zero observations. The presented model can be implemented in different territorial areas.

17

Assessment of the influence of selected factors on the punctuality of an urban transport fleet

Grzelak Małgorzata, Borucka Anna, Świderski Andrzej

Transport Problems

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2020

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T. 15, z. 4, cz. 2

311--323

EN

Urban transport systems operate according to fixed, strict timetables, which requires high timeliness and technical readiness of the fleet. Therefore, this article proposes a detailed study of the punctuality of the public transport system using a multiple regression model for the main modes of transport (trams, buses, and Warsaw Metro). The analysis made it possible to go beyond the framework of the overall assessment and to identify the factors that have a significant effect on the punctuality index and to indicate the degree of this effect. The obtained results are a universal tool to assess the punctuality level of the urban transport fleet and to support decision making in the scope of organization of their work, which can be implemented in any similar transport system. The specification of the number of breakdowns, road accidents, or unauthorized stopping of a vehicle as the main causes of delays is the basis for taking corrective measures related to the improvement of the fleet operation system, or for preventive measures. The development of such models is practical in both public transport systems and similar companies providing transport services. For such institutions, the parameter of punctuality is extremely important and affects the quality of the services offered and the reputation of the company, which translates into the numer of customers and potential profit. Therefore, it is important to investigate the factors that shape the punctuality of the tasks performed. It allows for shaping the processes of fleet control and management. It is also worth emphasizing the scientific aspect of the publication, which is the presentation of the possibilities of applying selected mathematical models in such analyses, indication of the conditions of their application, and presentation of possible results together with their interpretation.

18

Application of the logistic regression model to assess the risk of death in road traffic accidents in the Mazowieckie voivodeship

Borucka Anna, Grzelak Małgorzata, Świderski Andrzej

Transport Problems

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2020

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T. 15, z. 4, cz. 1

125--136

EN

Mortality caused by road accidents is a significant problem for most countries, including Poland, where approximately 2,900 people die each year, and another 37,359 are injured. Research in this area has been conducted on a large scale. One of the most important elements is the evaluation of factors leading to fatalities in road accidents, which is also the goal of this article. The analysis was based on data on road accidents from the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, which is characterized by one of the highest mortality rates gathered for the period 2016-2018. Owing to the dichotomous form of the studied variable, logistic regression was used. Estimated model parameters and calculated odds ratios allowed to assess the effect of selected factors on road traffic mortality rate. As significant, the type of the perpetrator and the traffic participant, sex and age of the victim, road lighting, and the driver’s experience were selected. It was assessed that pedestrians are the group most exposed to death in a road accident, both as perpetrators and victims. It was also pointed out that the risk of death for women is 1.8 times higher than men. In addition, the effect of driving experience is also important, and the risk of death is 0.64 times lower for drivers with longer practice. It was also assessed that with each subsequent year of life, the risk of death in a road accident increased by 2%. Furthermore, according to incident site lighting, the study demonstrated that the risk of death was greatest when driving at night on an unlit road. The results obtained may support public safety and law enforcement authorities in carrying out preventive actions and also can be helpful in shaping the overall strategy on road safety.

19

Application of information on road occurrences for the assessment of the social risk of some types of accidents

Borucka Anna, Grzelak Małgorzata, Świderski Andrzej, Jóźwiak Arkadiusz

Prace Naukowe Politechniki Warszawskiej. Transport

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2020

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z. 128

37--47

EN

Every year, in the Pomeranian Voivodeship, around 2600 road accidents occur, resulting in about 140 death casualties and a further 3200 injuries. For many years there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of traffic incidents in the study area, butthe number of fatalities is still high. Therefore, it is crucial to research to determine the causes of the above phenomenon continually. The article aimed to assess the social risk of road accidents based on a two-factor model. Traffic events occurring in built-up and undeveloped areas, depending on the date of their occurrence, were analyzed. The number of accidents and participating vehicles related to the average daily traffic volume was adopted as the measure. The analysis showed that regardless of the area, most events occur on Fridays. Besides, the highest volume of traffic is also recorded on these days of the week. As a result of the conducted research, it was found that March and April are the months with the highest social risk regarding road accidents, both in urban and extra-urban areas. Finally, the relative risk of road accidents in built-up and undeveloped areas was compared. On this basis, it was found that the risk of participation in a road accident in the urban zone is over six times greater than the risk of an event occurring in the extra-urban area (even though urban roads represent only 22% of all road infrastructure in the Pomeranian Voivodeship).

PL

Każdego roku na terenie województwa pomorskiego rocznie dochodzi do około 2600 wypadków drogowych w wyniku, których śmierć ponosi ok. 140 osób, a kolejnych 3200 zostaje rannych. Od wielu lat zauważalny jest spadek liczby zdarzeń komunikacyjnych na badanym obszarze, niemniej jednak liczba ofiar śmiertelnych wciąż jest na wysokim poziomie. Dlatego ważnym jest ciągłe prowadzenie badań mających na celu ustalenie przyczyn powyższego zjawiska. Celem artykułu była ocena ryzyka społecznego powstawania wypadków drogowych przeprowadzona w oparciu o model dwuczynnikowy. Analizie poddano zdarzenia komunikacyjne mające miejsce na terenie zabudowanym i niezabudowanym w zależności od daty ich powstania. Za miarę przyjęto liczbę wypadków oraz pojazdów w nich uczestniczących w odniesieniu do średniodobowego natężenia ruchu na drogach. Analiza wykazała, że niezależnie od obszaru, najwięcej zdarzeń ma miejsce w piątki. Ponadto, w te dni tygodnia odnotowuje się również największe natężenie ruchu. W wyniku przeprowadzonych badań stwierdzono, że marzec i kwiecień są miesiącami o największym ryzyku społecznym dotyczącym wypadków drogowych, zarówno w obszarze miejskim i pozamiejskim. Ostatecznie dokonano porównania ryzyka względnego powstawania wypadków drogowych w terenie zabudowanym i niezabudowanym. Na tej podstawie stwierdzono, że ryzyko uczestnictwa w wypadku drogowym w strefie miejskiej jest przeszło sześciokrotnie większe od ryzyka powstania zdarzenia w strefie pozamiejskiej (pomimo, że drogi miejskie stanowią wyłącznie 22% całej infrastruktury drogowej na terenie województwa pomorskiego).

20

Application of the logistic regression for determining transition probability matrix of operating states in the transport systems

Kozłowski Edward, Borucka Anna, Świderski Andrzej

Eksploatacja i Niezawodność

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2020

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Vol. 22, no. 2

192--200

EN

Transport companies can be regarded as a technical, organizational, economic and legal transport system. Maintaining the quality and continuity of the implementation of transport requisitions requires a high level of readiness of vehicles and staff (especially drivers). Managing and controlling the tasks being implemented is supported by mathematical models enabling to assess and determine the strategy regarding the actions undertaken. The support for managing processes relies mainly on the analysis of sequences of the subsequent activities (states). In many cases, this sequence of activities is modelled using stochastic processes that satisfy Markov property. Their classic application is only possible if the conditional probability distributions of future states are determined solely by the current operational state. The identification of such a stochastic process relies mainly on determining the probability matrix of interstate transitions. Unfortunately, in many cases the analyzed series of activities do not satisfy Markov property. In addition, the occurrence of the next state is affected by the length of time the system remains in the specified operating state. The article presents the method of constructing the matrix of probabilities of transitions between operational states. The values of this matrix depend on the time the object remains in the given state. The aim of the article was to present an alternative method of estimating the parameters of this matrix in a situation where the studied series does not satisfy Markov property. The logistic regression was used for this purpose.

PL

Przedsiębiorstwa transportowe mogą być traktowane jako wyodrębniony pod względem technicznym, organizacyjnym, ekonomicznym i prawnym system transportowy. Zachowanie jakości i ciągłości realizacji zleceń przewozowych wymaga wysokiego poziomu gotowości pojazdów oraz personelu (szczególnie kierowców). Kontrolowanie i sterowanie realizowanymi zadaniami wspierane jest modelami matematycznymi, umożliwiającymi ocenę i określenie strategii dotyczącej podejmowanych działań. Wsparcie procesów zarządzania polega głównie na analizie sekwencji kolejnych, realizowanych czynności (stanów). W wielu przypadkach taki ciąg czynności jest modelowany za pomocą procesów stochastycznych, spełniających własność Markowa. Ich klasyczne zastosowanie możliwe jest tylko w przypadku, gdy warunkowe rozkłady prawdopodobieństwa przyszłych stanów są określone wyłącznie przez bieżący stan eksploatacyjny. Identyfikacja takiego procesu stochastycznego polega głównie na wyznaczeniu macierzy prawdopodobieństw przejść międzystanowych. Niestety w wielu przypadkach analizowane ciągi czynności nie spełniają własności Markowa. Dodatkowo, na wystąpienie kolejnego stanu wpływa długość interwału czasowego pozostania systemu w określonym stanie eksploatacyjnym. W artykule przedstawiono metodę konstrukcji macierzy prawdopodobieństw przejść pomiędzy stanami eksploatacyjnymi. Wartości tej macierzy zależą od czasu przebywania obiektu w danym stanie. Celem artykułu było zaprezentowanie alternatywnej metody estymacji parametrów tej macierzy w sytuacji, gdy badany szereg nie spełnia własności Markowa. Wykorzystano w tym celu regresję logistyczną.