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Changes in Oil Transportation in the Years 2020 and 2030 – The Case of the Gulf of Finland

Brunila O., Storgård J.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2014

Vol. 8, no. 3

403--409

This paper covers the current state of maritime oil transportation in the Baltic Sea and the development of oil transportation in the 2000s, as well as estimations of transported oil volumes in 2020 and 2030 in the Gulf of Finland. The scenarios were formulated on the basis of a current state analysis, energy and transportation strategies and scenarios and expert assessments. The study showed that the volumes of oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland will increase only moderately compared to the current status: 9.5-33.8 %, depending on the scenario. Green energy policy favours renewable energy sources, which can be seen in the smaller volumes of transported oil in the 2030 scenarios compared to the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

The effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments from the Finnish maritime experts’ point of view – case Gulf of Finland and prevention of an oil accident

Lappalainen J., Storgård J., Tapaninen U.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

2013

Vol. 7, no. 3

353--362

Sea accidents are aimed to be prevented with an extensive amount of maritime safety regulation. The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of a questionnaire study that was targeted at Finnish maritime experts and addressed the question: how to prevent an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland. This study also includes a literature study about the problems of the current maritime safety regime. The findings of the questionnaire study are compared to the findings of the literature study. The questionnaire study showed that many kinds of policies have improved maritime safety, and they are needed to ensure maritime safety. For instance, ship construction, fairway maintenance, nautical charts and rules of the road at sea can be considered the cornerstones of maritime safety. However, the results ranked voluntary activities of companies as the most effective way to improve maritime safety in the future. Self-regulative approaches could solve some problems connected to more traditional policy-making.