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1

Storm-surges Indicator for the Polish Baltic Coast

Stanisławczyk I.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2012

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Vol. 6, no. 1

123--129

EN

Storm surges appear in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea and, depending on row of factors, have different sizes, specifically characteristic for each region of the sea-coast. Observed climate changes are characterized with greater dynamics of weather phenomena. To compare the risk of storm surges to different areas, a new method had to be developed. Storm-surges indicator is used to compare the risks to the South Baltic water areas, varied along with conditions therein and the hydro meteorological and local conditions. The studies on the relations between the parameters and the occurrence of storm surges were carried out as well. The storm surges indicator “W” is related to the number of storm surges observed at the stations in the particular regions, the maximal wind velocity and the max sea level occurring during the same storm surges. The storm surges indicator was calculated for the period of 1955-2008 for the Polish coastal zone. The inten-tion is to use this indicator for research and forecasting purposes. Assessment of the tendencies and variability of the regional phenomena indicators in timescale prove occurrence of certain regional changes of hydrome-teorological conditions.

2

Low Sea Level Occurrence of the Southern Baltic Sea Coast

Stanisławczyk I., Kowalska B., Mykita M.

TransNav : International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation

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2010

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Vol. 4, no. 2

199--204

PL

The level of 440 cm is defined as the upper limit of low sea level. This value is also accepted as the warning level for navigation, according to the NAVTEX. The low sea levels along the southern Baltic Sea coast were analyzed in the years 1955 – 2005. Lowest values recorded ranged from 309 cm in Wismar to 370 cm in Kołobrzeg. The phenomenon was chiefly generated by hurricane like offshore winds. Extremely low levels were not frequent, their occurrence did not exceed more than 0,3% in Świnoujście and not more than 1% in Warnemünde. In summer months these phenomena occurred extremely seldom, they were more fre-quent in the western, than in the eastern part of the coast. Long-term variation and statistical analysis was pre-sented. Probability of low sea levels occurrence was calculated by Gumbel method and percentile distribution for 4 gauge stations was analyzed. The calculations revealed that, for instance, in Warnemünde once in 20 years the minimum sea level can be as low as 358 cm.

3

Warunki zlodzenia na Bałtyku w akwenie Zatoki Gdańskiej w latach 1922-2000

Stanisławczyk I., Sztobryn M.

Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika

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2004

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nr 2

109-112

PL

Analiza statystyczna parametrów zlodzenia akwenu Zatoka Gdańska w latach 1922 - 2000. Ilustracja graficzna i tabelaryczna wyników obliczeń okresu sezonu lodowego, liczby dni z lodem, odniesienia do liczby dni wezbrań sztormowych. Wnioski.

EN

Statistic analysis of ice parameters of Gdańsk Bay in years 1922-2000. Graphical and tabular presentation of the calculation results of ice seasons, number of days with ice-cover, references to the number of storm freshet days. Conclusions.

4

Quality assessment of the hiromb water level forecast for the Polish coastal zone

Kowalska B., Stanisławczyk I., Mykita M.

Biuletyn Instytutu Morskiego w Gdańsku

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2001

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Vol. 28, No. 2

65--70

EN

The aim of this paper is to compare the observed water level and the results of HIROMB model for the same period. Real sea level values, collected in the data base of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Gdynia were measured by Polish water gauges situated along tlze west part of coast and around the Gulf of Gdansk. The analysed data were from the period 15.08.1998 - 28.05.1999, and the forecast lead time was equal to 24 hours. The assumed reference level, equal to 500 cm, caused too high forecast levels and marked differences between observed and computed sea levels. In order to improve the results of modelling a new reference level has been established. Having introduced the new reference level, a better agreement between the observed and computed values was obtained in most cases. The validation of modelled results was carried out by means of the chosen statistical indicators.