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Cognitive-oriented risk evaluation using the analytic hierarchy process

Hubig L., Jonen A.

Management

2009

Spec. ed.

118-135

The evaluation of risks discharges very often into subjective assessments of the probability of occurrence and / or the extent of loss. These assessments show a low transparency concerning the development of the judgements and are influenced by various different cognitive effects hindering the assessing persons to better accomplish this important step in the handling of risks. The Analytic Hierachy Process [AHP] is an instrument which has especially been used in the field of strategic decision making to solve similar problems of inducing people to make their tacit knowledge explicit. This way it seems reasonable to adopt the AHP methodology for the assessment of risks. For that purpose an AHP risk evaluation model is built up on the basis of the analysis of advantages and disadvantages of existing risk evaluation models. The elaborated risk evaluation using AHP is finally founded upon the separated judgement of the risk parameters and the quantification with the concept of fixed points. The model delivers an adequate base of operations for risk regulation and reduces the problem areas of low transparency and negative impacts of cognitive effects.