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A method to estimate the maximum stress time in a fault zone before an earthquake

Amiri Khamkani Hossein, Tavakoli Chatroodi Mohammad Reza, Bahrampour Alireza

Acta Geophysica

2021

Vol. 69, no. 6

2145--2159

On the basis of Coulomb criterion and Anderson theory of faulting, a method for estimating the time of maximum shear stress of a failure after an earthquake is proposed in this paper. After the earthquake and in the strain recovery time interval, the second derivative of shear stress versus time is positive and approaches to a turning point. After the turning point by employing the curve fitting and extrapolation by an optimal polynomial, the maximum shear stress and its corresponding time can be estimated. In the proposed method, the real-time variation of stress, distributed at any point along the fault, can be measured by a distributed optical fiber stress sensor. The method is verified in the theoretical framework and experimental data prior to 2011 Tohoku (Japan) and 2014 Alaska earthquakes. The proposed method is statistically investigated according to the data of successive earthquakes of M ≥ 5 in Parkfeld, Kuhbanan, and Golbaf–Sirch faults. The predicted time is in good agreement with the experimental results. Consequently on the basis of real-time measurements, a time-predictable model is proposed.