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Input/output models for freight transport demand: a macro approach to traffic analysis for a freight corridor

Pompigna Andrea, Mauro Raffaele

Archives of Transport

2020

Vol. 54, iss. 2

21--42

Input Output model are of great interest in the transport sector, especially regarding freight transport demand. These models allow to analyze the cross effects of: political, macroeconomic and transport changes; industrial dynamics; exchange flows between different sites within a reference area, more or less divided into subareas. Although very interesting and desirable to be used and disseminated, their use is often hindered by the complexity of the modelling structures that need to describe the interactions with the transport systems and by the difficulty of finding complete and reliable data. In this context, this paper deals with a macro-level Input Output approach for freight demand analysis, which directly relates the quantities of goods transported along a multimodal corridor to the functioning of the economic system. The proposed model is structured on two levels: the first level allows the sectoral production forecasts of the entire economic system based on the exogenous final demand; the second allows the forecast of tons transported, annually and by sector, along the corridor based on the sectoral production estimated at the first level. The two modelling levels are applied to the analysis and forecast of freight traffic demand along the Italian-Austrian cross-border stretch of the Brenner corridor, a fundamental axis of the European transport infrastructure network. The model has been verified and validated on data covering 15 years between 2000 and 2014 using the reclassified time series of Input Output tables and the international trade data for Italy. The model has been used to produce medium-long term forecasts for different economic scenarios. The macro-level point of view and the application for the corridor provide a simple and directly applicable model compared to the complex articulations that characterize the Input Output applications to the transport systems, which can hinder their concrete use as decision support in the planning of transport infrastructures.

A structural decomposition analysis for traffic demand assessment on a freight transport corridor

Pompigna Andrea, Mauro Raffaele

Archives of Transport

2020

Vol. 56, iss. 4

19--31

This paper deals with a Structural Decomposition (SDA) applied to the analysis of the freight traffic demand in an Input Output (IO) modelling context. After reviewing the basic definitions of IO models and some methodological references for their application in the freight transport field, the paper proposes the application of the SDA in the perspective of a freight corridor. This application takes place downstream of an IO model that directly relates the quantities of goods transported along the corridor with the functioning of the reference economic system. Considering the evolution of tons annually trans-ported in a certain time interval, the SDA model allows to isolate the specific effects related to: intensity of freight traffic typical of the corridor; technological structure of the production sectors; characteristics of the final demand in relation to its overall level, sectoral structure and allocation between components. The SDA model is applied to a case study considering the total volumes of goods annually in transit at the Brenner pass between 2000 and 2014. The evaluation of the polar forms of the multiplicative decomposition and their geometric mean allow to quantify the effects of each factor on the variation of the tonnage in terms of indexed value, absolute variation and percentage contribution compared to the base year (2000). The relative influences on freight traffic at the Brenner pass are therefore highlighted, both in terms of total volumes transited and impacts attributable to each of the decomposition factors introduced, with particular evidence also in the event of periods of economic and financial crisis. The SDA specified in the paper and the related case study provide useful elements for studying the traffic demand of goods through a freight corridor, helping in outlining the effects of the different driving forces related to the economic system and affecting freight transport demand trends.