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Anthropogenic and Climatic Causality of Changes in the Hydrological Regime of the Dnieper River

Pichura Vitalii Ivanovich, Potravka Larisa Aleksandrovna, Skrypchuk Petro Mikhalovich, Stratichuk Natalia Vladimirovna

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2020

Vol. 21, nr 4

1--10

The intensive use of water resources and the transformation of natural landscapes under the influence of human economic activity have led to changes in the natural water balance of river drainage basins. The negative processes thereof are intensified by climatic changes that have significantly disturbed the hydrological regime, determined by changes in water content and river flow dynamics. The retrospective study and prediction of the flow of the Dnieper River was carried out using multivariate statistics and adaptive methods of nonlinear time series analysis. The anomalous features were identified and the main periods of changes in the water regime of the river for 190 years (1818–2008) were determined using the standard root-mean-square deviation and wavelet analysis. As a result of non-linear prediction, it was determined that if the tendency of anthropogenic and climatic formation of the water regime of the Dnieper River sustains, there is a 90% probability of insignificant but steady trend and cyclical reduction of the average annual flow by 1.6 m3/s per year to 1120 ± 270 m3/s by 2040. The results of the detailed retrospective analysis for 190 years and the prediction of the probability of changes in the flow of the Dnieper river confirm the previous conclusions of many scientists regarding the significant transformation of the ecosystem of the transboundary river and provide new knowledge regarding the main stages of formation of the water regime and the probability of further regulation of the flow of the Dnieper river if the current conditions of the negative impact of economic activities are maintained in the transboundary basin.

Geomodelling of Destruction of Soils of Ukrainian Steppe Due to Water Erosion

Dudiak Nataliia Vasylivna, Pichura Vitalii Ivanovich, Potravka Larisa Aleksandrovna, Stratichuk Natalia Vladimirovna

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2019

Vol. 20, nr 8

192--198

Spatial raster distribution models of the values of factors influencing the potential soil erosion hazard were created using GIS technologies. The erosion hazard was estimated using the modified RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) model. The potential of annual soil loss of arable land was calculated. The spatial gradation of erosion violation of administrative and territorial units in the steppe zone of Ukraine was provided. About 32.7% of arable land that is subject to high erosion hazard was allocated. About 48 administrative and territorial units have a specific area less than 5% of erosion disturbed lands. They are characterized by a resistant type of agrolandscapes regarding the water-erosion processes. Most administrative and territorial units with high erosive-accumulative potential (the percentage of the area is 15% or more) are located in the western and southwestern parts of the steppe zone of Ukraine. The specific area of erosion hazardous lands reaches up to 32% in separate administrative-territorial units. The obtained results allow determining the need for a spatially discrete-distribution implementation of adaptive-landscape anti-erosion design with the elements of soil-protective agriculture.