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Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics

Meier H.E.M., Höglund A., Döscher R., Andersson H., Löptien U., Kjellström E.

Oceanologia

2011

No. 53 (1-TI)

193-227

Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961-2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.

The major Baltic inflow in January 2003 and preconditioning by smaller inflows in summer/autumn 2002 : a model study

Meier H. E. M., Döscher R., Broman B., Piechura J.

Oceanologia

2004

No. 46 (4)

557-579

Using the results of the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO) the Baltic inflows in summer/autumn 2002 and January 2003 have been studied. The model results were extracted from a long simulation with observed atmospheric forcing starting in May 1980. In RCO a bottom boundary layer model was embedded. Both the smaller inflows and the major inflow in January 2003 are simulated in good agreement with observations. We found that a total of 222 km3 water entered the Baltic in January; the salinity of 94 km3 was greater than 17 PSU. In August/September 2002 the outflow through the Sound and inflow across the Darss Sill were simulated. The net inflow volume amounted to about 50 km3.