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On the testing of seismicity models

Molchan G.

Acta Geophysica

2012

Vol. 60, no. 3

624-637

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible applications to hazard analysis. We arrive at the conclusion that model testing can be made more efficient by focusing on some integral characteristics of the seismicity distribution. This can be achieved either in the likelihood framework but with economical and physically reasonable coarsening of the phase space or by choosing a suitable measure of closeness between empirical and model seismicity rate in this space.