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1 2014

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the city of Quetta, Pakistan

Rehman S., Lindholm C., Ahmed N., Rafi Z.

Acta Geophysica

2014

Vol. 62, no. 4

737--761

Seismic hazard assessment for Quetta is carried out using probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique based on area sources and augmented by line source used for the first time in Pakistan. Seismic data has been collected and analyzed in spatial and temporal domains. Five Seismic Zones have been modeled in line with tectonics of the region with b-value of 1.14 using regression. The b-value is slightly higher, which is attributed to the fact that aftershocks were not removed as it distorted the dataset. Five fault sources are modeled, with three as reverse and two as strike-slip with 7.8 as maximum magnitude. Mach Structure is included in the tectonics for the first time. The attenuation relation used in the present study is recommended by various researchers. The expected Peak Ground Acceleration for 500-year return period is 4.79 m/s2 for rock outcrop and characterized as very high. Furthermore, variation in spectral acceleration within Quetta city is observed, for which spectral curves are developed for four different places.