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Time-dependent seismic hazard in Bobrek coal mine, Poland, assuming different magnitude distribution estimations

Leptokaropoulos K., Staszek M., Cielesta Sz., Urban P., Olszewska D., Lizurek G.

Acta Geophysica

2017

Vol. 65, no. 3

493--505

The purpose of this study is to evaluate seismic hazard parameters in connection with the evolution of mining operations and seismic activity. The time-dependent hazard parameters to be estimated are activity rate, Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean return period and exceedance probability of a prescribed magnitude for selected time windows related with the advance of the mining front. Four magnitude distribution estimation methods are applied and the results obtained from each one are compared with each other. Those approaches are maximum likelihood using the unbounded and upper bounded Gutenberg–Richter law and the non-parametric unbounded and non-parametric upper-bounded kernel estimation of magnitude distribution. The method is applied for seismicity occurred in the longwall mining of panel 3 in coal seam 503 in Bobrek colliery in Upper Silesia Coal Basin, Poland, during 2009–2010. Applications are performed in the recently established Web-Platform for Anthropogenic Seismicity Research, available at https://tcs.ah-epos.eu/