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Comprehensive forecast of electromobility mid-term development in Poland and its impacts on power system demand

Piotrowski P., Baczyński D., Robak S., Kopyt M., Piekarz M., Polewaczyk M.

Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Technical Sciences

2020

Vol. 68, nr 4

697--709

This paper discusses three variants of how e-mobility development will affect the Polish Power System. Multivariate forecasts of annual new registrations of electric vehicles for up to seven years are developed. The forecasts use the direct trend trend extrapolation methods,methods based on the deterministic chaos theory, multiple regression models, and the Grey model. The number of electric vehicles in use was determined for 2019‒2025 based on the forecast new registrations. The forecasts were conducted in three variants for the annual electric energy demand in 2019‒2025, using the forecast number of electric vehicles and the forecast annual demand for electric energy excluding e-mobility. Forecasts were conducted in three variants for the daily load profile of power system for winter and summer seasons in the Polish Power system in 2019–2025 based on three variants of the forecast number of electric vehicles and forecast relative daily load profiles.

Analiza jakości prognoz produkcji energii w elektrowniach wiatrowych opracowanych na podstawie danych meteo z modeli UM i COAMPS

Baczyński D., Kopyt M.

Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

2017

R. 93, nr 11

171--175

W artykule przedstawiono testy metody prognozowania produkcji energii z turbin wiatrowych z horyzontem 48 h wykorzystującej sztuczne sieci neuronowe. Wykonano prognozy na podstawie danych z modeli pogodowych UM i COAMPS. Przeanalizowano wyniki i sformułowano wnioski końcowe.

The paper presents tests of method of 48 h ahead wind turbines electric energy production forecast by means of artificial neural networks. Forecasts using UM and COAMPS weather models were done. The results were analysed and final conclusions have been presented.