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1 2024

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Components of the polish LPI in relation to macroeconomic variables. Cointegration analysis

Karp Piotr

Zeszyty Naukowe. Organizacja i Zarządzanie / Politechnika Śląska

2024

z. 191

265--276

Purpose: The aim of the article is to analyze Poland’s logistics potential measured by the means of the LPI (Logistics Performance Index). The impact of trade volume, infrastructure development and service quality on individual LPI components was assessed. Estimating the relationship between the components of the Polish LPI index and macroeconomic variables enables the assessment of the strength of the relationship and sensitivity to the economic situation. It allows to draw conclusions about possible areas that are more sensitive or require repair. It also enables to indicate how the economy influences the TSL sector (Transport–Shipping–Logistics). Design/methodology/approach: The analysis was carried out using the rules and methods of time series cointegration, which enable the analysis of long- and short-term relationships. This enabled the identification of areas most sensitive to the influence of particular factors. To obtain consistent time series, interpolation methods were also used. Findings: The development of infrastructure and an increase in the level of services has a positive impact on all aspects measured by LPI components. In turn, the increase in trade exchange, as an increase in demand for the TSL sector, affects four of the six components. In two cases, border services and on-time delivery, the relationship is negative. This highlights the main points limiting the growth of LPI ratings and indirectly limiting trade and economic development of Poland. Research limitations/implications: Limited data availability influenced the choice of method used in the study. Moreover, short time series and data interpolation used in the study may result in the inaccuracy of estimations. Practical implications: Econometric analysis indicates weaknesses in the Polish logistics sector. Improvements in customs regulations and expansion of infrastructure may improve the functioning of the TSL sector. It should be of particular interest to policy makers, for which economic growth and the LPI rating should be very important. Originality/value: This is the first paper that uses econometric tools to compare the components of LPI with macro variables.