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1

Spatial variability of long-term trends in significant wave height over the Gulf of Gdańsk using System Identification techniques

Badur J., Cieślikiewicz W.

Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies

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2018

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Vol. 47, No. 2

190--201

EN

The significant wave height field over the Gulf of Gdańsk in the Baltic Sea is simulated back to the late 19th century using selected data-driven System Identification techniques (Takagi-Sugeno-Kang neuro-fuzzy system and non-linear optimization methods) and the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD Reanalysis 2 wind fields. Spatial variability of trends in the simulated dataset is briefly presented to show a cumulative “storminess” increase in the open, eastern part of the Gulf of Gdańsk and a decrease in the sheltered, western part of the Gulf.

2

Port of Gdańsk and Port of Gdynia’s exposure to threats resulting from storm extremes

Cieślikiewicz W., Dudkowska A., Gic-Grusza G.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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2016

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Vol. 7, No. 1

29--36

EN

This study is intended to make a first estimate of the exposure of the two Polish largest ports – Gdańsk and Gdynia, localized in the Gulf of Gdańsk – to threats from storm extremes. These ports are elements of the Polish critical infrastructure and presented analysis is one of the tasks related to critical infrastructure protection. Hypothetical extreme meteorological conditions have been defined based on 138-year NOAA data and assumed wave fields for those conditions have been generated. Using HIPOCAS project database the 21 extreme historical storms over the period 1958–2001 were selected to simulate realistic conditions in the vicinity of the ports. The highest significant wave height was found to be nearly 4 m in the vicinity of Port of Gdańsk and nearly 2 m in the vicinity of Port of Gdynia. A future intensification of these wave conditions should be considered due to the climate change and sea level rise.

3

Rekonstrukcja falowania wiatrowego Bałtyku w okresie 1958 - 2001

Cieślikiewicz W., Paplińska-Swerpel B.

Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika

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2005

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nr 4

313-321

PL

Rekonstrukcja falowania na Bałtyku dla długiego okresu - 44 lat (1958-2001). Model falowania WAM4 w dużej rozdzielczości przestrzennej i czasowej. Porównanie wyników modelowania z pomiarami in situ oraz z pomiarami satelitarnymi. Praktyczne zastosowania wyników modelowych.

EN

Reconstruction of Baltic wind waves for long period of time - 44 years (1958-2001). WAM4 wave model in high spatial and time resolution. Comparison of modeling rsults with in situ and satellite measurements. Practical applications of model results.

4

Modelowanie falowania wiatrowego Morza Bałtyckiego i Zatoki Gdańskiej

Cieślikiewicz W., Herman A.

Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika

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2001

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nr 4

173-184

PL

Charakterystyki falowania wiatrowego. Modelowanie numeryczne falowania wiatrowego: modele WAM i SWAN. Dane wejściowe oraz siatki obliczeniowe. Wyniki modelowania. Wnioski.

EN

Characteristics of wind waves. Numerical modelling of wind waves: WAM and SWAM models. Input data and calculation meshes. The results of modelling. Conclusions.

5

Zastosowanie metod identyfikacji systemów oraz empirycznych funkcji ortogonalnych w prognozowaniu stanu morza

Cieślikiewicz W.

Inżynieria Morska i Geotechnika

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2000

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nr 1

9-18

PL

Opracowanie transformacji parametrycznej łączącej warunki meteorologiczne ze stanem morza. Pola prędkości wiatru przetworzone za pomocą metody empirycznych funkcji ortogonalnych. Opis ewolucji w czasie pola przy użyciu tylko kilku pierwszych składowych głównych. Opracowanie efektywnego modelu parametrycznego prognozującego stan morza za pomocą danych meteorologicznych. Dostateczna zgodność modelowanych szeregów czasowych ze zmierzonymi.

EN

The development of parametric transformation linking the meteorological conditions with the sea response is presented. The method of empirical orthogonal functions is applied to the wind velocity field and it is shown that the wind field time history can be adequately represented by the first few principal components. The system identification procedures are then applied to develop a new efficient form of parametric model linking spatial meteorological data with the sea state response. Comparison between the modelled and observed time series of sea state parameters present a sufficiently good agreement to prove effectiveness of the new approach.

6

Maximum-entropy probability distribution of wind wave free-surface elevation

Cieślikiewicz W.

Oceanologia

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1998

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No. 40 (3)

205-229

EN

The probability density function of the surface elevation of a non-Gaussian random wave field is obtained. The derivation is based on the maximum entropy (information) principle with the first four statistical moments of the surface elevation used as constraints. The density function is found by the use of the Lagrangian multipliers method and it is shown that only two of four Lagrangian multipliers are independent. The applied method of numerical solution is described in detail and the useful nomograms that give the Lagrangian multipliers as functions of skewness and kurtosis are calculated and incorporated in the paper. For slightly nonlinear waves the approximate maximum-entropy probability distribution is developed. The condition of the existence of this approximate distribution agrees with the empirical criterion for small deviations from the Gaussian distribution of random water waves. The theoretical results compare well with field experiment data of Ochi and Wang (1984), even in the strongly non-Gaussian case.