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Modeling of Continuous and Extreme Hydrological Processes Using Spatially Distributed Models MERCEDES, VICAIR and VISHYR in a Mediterranean Watershed

Aqnouy Mourad, El Messari Jamal Eddine Stitou, Bouadila Abdelmounim, Morabbi Ali, Benaabidate Lahcen, Al-Djazouli Mahamat Ouchar

Ecological Engineering & Environmental Technology

2021

Vol. 22, iss. 1

9--23

Hydrological modeling predicts flood discharge and diminishes the danger by minimizing the environmental damages downstream. This study aimed to investigate the application of the ATHYS Models platform for simulating the rainfall-runoff relationship in Oued Laou Watershed (940 km2 ). The study area is characterized by strong storms associated with the highest rainfall in Morocco, as well as renowned for its regular water supply and historical flooding; for these reasons, it is classified as a vulnerable area during a rainfall event. The models of the ATHYS platform have been implemented in continuous time during (2004–2012), and in four hourly rainfall extremes recorded in March 2018 at the Kodiat Khorireen station. The VICAIR model was used to visualize, analyze and spatially adjust the input data in raster format (land use, soil numerical map, slope, and flow direction). The VISHYR model, on the other hand, was used for corrections, calculations, management, and visualization of local hydro-climatic data in the FTS63 format. Under the MERCEDES model, the combination of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) production function and the Lag and Route (L&R) transfer function has produced satisfactory results for continuous simulation periods and for the extreme scenarios. The modeling of the flow process in the Oued Laou by the ATHYS platform produced a reasonable performance with an average NSE of 0.70, R2 of 0.73, PBIAS of 13% and RMSE of 0.46. The research results reveal that the storage parameters, soil type, land use, and vegetation are the most important factors affecting the sensitivity of the hydrological response in the Oued Laou watershed. Moreover, the results indicate that the MERCEDES model is an appropriate tool for modeling floods and flow volumes associated with specific rain events and could be used by managers and decision-makers as a tool for flood forecasting in Morocco.