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Avoiding collisions, enhancing marine safety – a simplified model for the Aegean Sea

Ventikos N. P., Rakas D. K.

Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Morskiej w Szczecinie

2015

nr 42 (114)

78--85

Ship collision is a hazardous event within the chain of maritime transport. Collisions may result in human losses, adverse economic consequences, and environmental damages causing significant impact to local societies and related activities. A major factor in any risk analysis concerning ship collisions is the probability of these collisions occurring. The purpose of this study is to assess the probability of ship-to-ship collision in the Aegean Sea. The basic concept of the developed model is to (statistically) simulate traffic flow in the area of interest and determine the collision candidates; this will be implemented in a pilot study in a segment of the Aegean Sea. The input of this effort is based on values that are extracted from statistical analysis of the international fleet in combination with the study of maps depicting traffic flow in the studied area. Hence, it does not employ detailed AIS data. The obtained results are presented and their agreement with actual incidents is discussed in depth. The paper concludes with interesting insights of the aforementioned tasks.