The impact of ship traffic emissions in the Baltic Sea on deposition and airborne concentrations of nitrogen and sulphur compounds in the period 2008-2011 was studied using the Hilatar chemistry transport model with a 0.068° latitude-longitude resolution. An accurate ship emission inventory based on AIS (automatic identification system) security signals was used. The uncertainty of the European emission inventories are discussed, as is an inter-comparison of the Baltic Sea airborne load and concentrations with other model-based estimates and with air quality measurements and the effect of the EU sulphur directive for ship emissions on sulphate concentrations.
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The degree of inter-annual variability in spring and summer phytoplankton blooms and nitrogen fixation in response to the deposition of oxidized nitrogen originating from ship emissions (hereafter nitrogen deposition) was evaluated in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea) based on 10-year (1997-2006) simulation results using a coupled hydrodynamic (GETM) and ecological (ERGOM) model. Ship emissions were generated for 2008 using the Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model, and ship nitrogen deposition was calculated using the Hilatar chemistry-transport model over the Baltic Sea. The annual ship nitrogen deposition in the Gulf of Finland was 1.6 kt N, about 12% of the annual atmospheric deposition, and increased in summer, up to 30% compared to the monthly atmospheric deposition. Ship nitrogen deposition caused an increase in spring and post-bloom primary production in two functional groups (diatoms and flagellates), at the same time reducing phosphate resources in the upper layer. Nitrogen fixation due to ship nitrogen deposition decreased by 1-1.6 kt N year-1 (2-6%). The effect of ship nitrogen deposition on nitrogen fixation was greater in the western and central Gulf of Finland. The additional ship nitrogen deposition to the Gulf was practically compensated for by a decrease in nitrogen fixation.
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The variability of the marine boundary layer parameters over the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins and their impact on the 6 h, monthly or seasonal deposition of oxidized nitrogen compounds was studied using results of the Hilatar chemistry-transport model, the 6th hour forecasts of the HIRLAM weather prediction model and meteorological measurement data. The monthly load of oxidized nitrogen was highest in the winters of 1993-1995 and 2000, and lowest in 1996-1997 and 2005; no trend was detected. Short-time correlations were low, but a significant correlation of the monthly deposition with the NAO index and ice-season was found over northern sub-basins.
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