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2 Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2 2013

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Risk to built property posed by transportation of liquid gasses

Kisezauskiene L., Vaidogas E. R.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2013

Vol. 4, No. 1

43--50

An assessment of risk posed by a road transportation of liquefied gases to roadside property is considered. The attention is focused on an estimation of the probability of thermal damage to a roadside object. Such damage can be caused by a boiling-liquid expanding-vapour explosion (BLEVE) of a road tank. It is suggested to estimate this probability by a combined application of stochastic simulation and deterministic models used to predict a thermal effect of a BLEVE fireball. A development of a fragility function expressing the probability of ignition of the roadside object is discussed. The fragility function is integrated into the simulation-based procedure of an estimation of the thermal damage probability. The approach proposed in this study is illustrated by an example which considers an assessment of thermal damage to a reservoir built in the vicinity of a road used for transportation of liquefied gases.

An assessment of reliability of a blast wall using limited statistical information on blast loading

Vaidogas E. R., Kisežauskien L., Juocevičius V.

Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

2013

Vol. 4, No. 2

259--266

A design of a blast wall is considered. Methods of structural reliability analysis and quantitative risk assessment are applied to the design. The basic idea of this design is to apply a probability of failure of cladding components as a criterion of damage to the cladding. This probability is used as an estimate of the proportion of cladding components destroyed by an explosion. The cladding failure probability is estimated by quantifying and propagating uncertainties related to a mechanical model of cladding and elements of the statistical sample containing records of blast loading. It is demonstrated how to estimate the cladding failure probability when the size of this sample is small from the standpoint of classical statistics. The case study included in the paper considers a design of a cladding for a blast wall to be deployed for protecting a fuel tank against an explosion of a railroad tank car.