Wyniki wyszukiwania - BazTech

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Numerical simulations of sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea for 2010–2016 winters using the 3D CEMBS model

Janecki M., Nowicki A., Kańska A., Golenko M., Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L.

Polish Maritime Research

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2018

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nr 3

35--43

EN

Sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea during six latest winters – 2010/2011 to 2015/2016 are analysed using coupled ice– ocean numerical model 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea). Simulation results are compared with observations from monitoring stations, ice charts and satellite data. High correlation between model results and observations has been confirmed both in terms of spatial and temporal approach. The analysed period has a high interannual variability of ice extent, the number of ice days and ice thickness. Increasing number of relatively mild winters in the Northern Europe directly associated with climate change results in reduced ice concentration in the Baltic Sea. In this perspective, the implementation and development of the sea ice modelling approach (in addition to standard monitoring techniques) is critical to assess current state of the Baltic Sea environment and predict possible climate related changes in the ecosystem and their influence for human marine–related activities, such as fishery or transportation.

2

The use of satellite data in the operational 3D coupled ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea (3D CEMBS)

Nowicki A., Janecki M., Darecki M., Piotrowski P., Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L.

Polish Maritime Research

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2016

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nr 1

20--24

EN

The objective of this paper is to present an automatic monitoring system for the 3D CEMBS model in the operational version. This predictive, eco hydrodynamic model is used as a tool to control the conditions and bio productivity of the Baltic sea environment and to forecast physical and ecological changes in the studied basin. Satellite-measured data assimilation is used to constrain the model and achieve higher accuracy of its results. 3D CEMBS is a version of the Community Earth System Model, adapted for the Baltic Sea. It consists of coupled ocean and ice models, working in active mode together with the ecosystem module. Atmospheric forecast from the UM model (Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of the Warsaw University) are used as a forcing fields feed through atmospheric data model. In addition, river inflow of freshwater and nutrient deposition from 71 main rivers is processed by land model. At present, satellite data from AQUA MODIS, processed by the SatBałtyk project Operational System are used for the assimilation of sea surface temperature and chlorophyll a concentration. In the operational mode, 48-hour forecasts are produced at six-hour intervals, providing a wide range of hydrodynamic and biochemical parameters.

3

Assimilation of the satellite SST data in the 3D CEMBS model

Nowicki A., Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Janecki M., Kałas M.

Oceanologia

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2015

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No. 57 (1)

17--24

EN

The 3D CEMBS (3D Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea) is a coupled ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea. In operational mode it computes 48-h forecasts of the hydrodynamic and biochemical parameters describing the Baltic Sea state. The Cressman assimilation scheme was implemented as part of the system in order to improve overall model accuracy. The system uses satellite-measured sea surface temperature from the MODIS Aqua spectroradiometer for the assimilation process. The satellite measured SST is obtained from a predefined server, which is part of the Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment project (SatBałtyk). To validate the model results and the impact of assimilation on the model's accuracy, two separate test runs were performed using historical data covering the years 2011 and 2012. Independent computations were performed for the model with and without satellite SST assimilation, respectively referred to in this paper as 3D CEMBS_A and 3D CEMBS. The results of the computations were then compared with satellite and in situ measured data to validate the model and the assimilation scheme's implementation. The objective of this paper is to describe the implementation of the satellite SST data assimilation algorithm and to present the results of the preliminary validation of the models with observations.

4

Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS) : the ecosystem module

Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Janecki M., Nowick A., Jakacki J.

Oceanologia

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2013

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No. 55 (3)

543--572

EN

The paper describes the ecohydrodynamic predictive model - the ecosystem module - for assessing the state of the Baltic marine environment and the Baltic ecosystem. The Baltic Sea model 3D CEMBS (the Coupled Ecosystem Model of the Baltic Sea) is based on the Community Earth System Model, which was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice-ecosystem model. The 3D CEMBS model uses: (i) hydrodynamic equations describing water movement, (ii) thermodynamic equations, (iii) equations describing the concentration distribution of chemical variables in the sea, and (iv) equations describing the exchange of matter between individual groups of organisms and their environment that make allowance for the kinetics of biochemical processes. The ecosystem model consists of 11 main components: three classes of phytoplankton (small phytoplankton, large phytoplankton represented mainly by diatoms and summer species, mostly cyanobacteria) expressed in units of carbon and chlorophyll a as separate variables, zooplankton, pelagic detritus, dissolved oxygen and nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate and silicate). In operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM) are used. All model forecasts are available on the website http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php. The results presented in this paper show that the 3D CEMBS model is operating correctly.

5

Activation of the operational ecohydrodynamic model (3D CEMBS) : the hydrodynamic part

Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Jakacki J., Nowicki A., Janecki M.

Oceanologia

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2013

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No. 55 (3)

519--541

EN

The paper describes the hydrodynamic part of the coupled ice-ocean model that also includes the ecosystem predictive model. The Baltic Sea model is based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM from NCAR – National Centre for Atmospheric Research). CESM was adopted for the Baltic Sea as a coupled sea-ice model. It consists of the Community Ice CodE (CICE, model version 4.0) and the Parallel Ocean Program (POP, version 2.1). The models are linked through a coupler (CPL7), which is based on the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) library. The current horizontal resolution is about 2 km (1/48 degrees). The ocean model has 21 vertical levels and is forced by atmospheric fields from the European Centre for Medium Weather Forecast (ECMWF). A preliminary validation of the hydrodynamic module with in situ measurements and reanalysis from My Ocean (http://www.myocean.eu) has also been done. In the operational mode, 48-hour atmospheric forecasts provided by the UM model from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling of Warsaw University (ICM) are used. The variables presented on the website in real time for a 48-hour forecast are temperature, salinity, currents, sea surface height, ice thickness and ice coverage (http://deep.iopan.gda.pl/CEMBaltic/new_lay/index.php). The embedded model of the marine ecosystem, like ice, is not taken into account in this paper.

6

Influence of climate parameters on long-term variations of the distribution of phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration in the Baltic Sea simulated by a 3D model

Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Piskozub J., Jakacki J., Janecki M., Nowicki A.

Polish Journal of Ecology

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2012

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Vol. 60, nr 4

651--666

EN

We used a 3-D coupled seaice ecological model of the Baltic Sea to investigate the influence of long-term trends in average temperature, wind speed and solar irradiance on nutrients concentration and distribution of phytoplankton. We tested the sensitivity of the model to changes of the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation performing several numerical experiments with different configurations. Discussion about the relevance of the results for the expected future climate change is provided. The calculations were done for whole Baltic Sea for the period from 2004 to 2048. The results of the numerical simulations for the different areas of Baltic Sea (nine stations: Gulf of Gdańsk, Gdańsk Deep, Gotland Deep, Bornholm Deep, Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Bothnian, Bothnian Sea, Danish Straits) were presented. The simulations results show significant changes in phytoplankton biomass and nutrient concentration distributions, which took place in the regions where a significant increase in currents (to 100 cm s-1) was found. The results of the numerical simulations for five years (2000–2004) are consistent with in situ observations for temperature and phytoplankton (Dzierzbicka-Glowacka et al. 2011b).

7

Variability in the distribution of phytoplankton as affected by changes to the main physical parameters in the Baltic Sea

Dzierzbicka-Głowacka L., Jakacki J., Janecki M., Nowicki A.

Oceanologia

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2011

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No. 53 (1-TI)

449-470

EN

An integrated ecological system model was used to determine the influence on Baltic phytoplankton of the long-term variability in the sea's main physical parameters. A three-dimensional coupled sea-ice model was developed. A simple ecosystem was added to the sea-ice model and used to estimate phytoplankton variability during long-term changes in the main atmospheric forces. Scenarios similar to those of climate were performed by altering the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation (in different configurations). The influence of the variability in these parameters on phytoplankton is discussed.