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Climatological drivers of changes in flood hazard in Germany

Hattermann F.F., Kundzewicz Z.W., Huang S., Vetter T., Gerstengarbe F.-W., Werner P.

Acta Geophysica

2013

Vol. 61, no. 2

463--477

Since several destructive floods have occurred in Germany in the last decades, it is of considerable interest and relevance (e.g., when undertaking flood defense design) to take a closer look at the climatic factors driving the changes in flood hazard in Germany. Even if there also exist non-climatic factors controlling the flood hazard, the present paper demonstrates that climate change is one main driver responsible for the increasing number of floods. Increasing trends in temperature have been found to be ubiquitous in Germany, with impact on air humidity and changes in (intense) precipitation. Growing trends in flood pronecirculation pattern and heavy precipitation are significant in many regions of Germany over a multi-decade interval and this can be translated into the rise of flood hazard and flood risk.