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1 2022

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Simulation of Favorable Habitats for Non-Gregarious Locust Pests in North Kazakhstan Based on Satellite Data for Preventive Measures

Baibussenov Kurmet, Bekbayeva Aigul, Azhbenov Valery

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2022

Vol. 23, nr 7

299--311

The paper considers the approaches and possibilities of using two types of simulation: the species distribution model and the ecological niche model. The study aimed to simulate favorable habitats and the potential spread of non-gregarious locust pests in North Kazakhstan based on satellite and ground data for preventive measures. The MaxEnt software was used to conduct the simulation. According to the species distribution model, high indicators of the habitat are predicted in the Pavlodar and Kostanay regions, on 69.9–100% of the studied territory. With the simulation of ecological niches for non-gregarious locust pests, the following class boundaries were determined for the transition from quantitative to qualitative indicators from I (85–100%) to IV (0–50%), which indicates the zones of the probability of pest attack from a higher indicator to a lower one. According to the fundamental model, high indicators of the area of pest occurrence, that is, zones I and II, are located in the central and northern parts of the Pavlodar region. Here, the probability of non-gregarious locust occurrence of zone I and II with a ratio of 1:1 is observed in a slightly arid, moderately warm agro-climatic zone. In the southern part of the Kostanay region, the simulation predicts the probability of occurrence on zones I and II with a ratio of 1:2 in the moderately arid warm agro-climatic zone of this region. In the southern and southeastern parts of the Akmola region, the model predicts the probability of occurrence in zones I and II with a ratio of 1:3 in a slightly humid, moderately warm agro-climatic zone of the region. The considered species distribution model can be used as a modern tool for long-term forecasting of the spread of non-gregarious locust pests since it takes into account the peculiarities of the agricultural landscape. The fundamental niche model can be used in a long-term population forecast since it focuses more on the theoretical conditions of pest habitats.