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The September 2017 flood in Elbląg (Poland) in perspective

Konieczny R., Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2018

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Vol. 6, Iss. 2

67--78

EN

On the morning of 18 September 2017, the center of the city of Elbląg in northern Poland was inundated by the rapidly rising waters of the Kumiela River, resulting in considerable damage and chaos in the city. The present paper provides information about this event, which was caused by intense precipitation lasting two days. We put this individual event in perspective by examining the climate track in the observation and projection of flood hazard through analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation and intense precipitation. We also examine the non-climatic factors of flood risk, such as spatial development and river regulation. Further, we pose the question of whether actions aimed at flood risk reduction, predominantly by way of structural defenses in the catchment of the Kumiela River, really reduce the flood risk in Elbląg. We also offer more general remarks pertaining to flood risk reduction in Poland, primarily based on technical measures, and we unveil the shortcomings of the current flood risk management system in Poland. In the social consciousness, the structural flood defense strategy has become the norm of thinking in terms of methods for reducing the effects of floods in Poland, but this does not always contribute to reducing flood damage either locally or nationally. We refer to some good examples of preparedness for urban inundations caused by heavy precipitation in other cities.

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Assessment of climate change and associated impact on selected sectors in Poland

Kundzewicz Z. W., Piniewski M., Mezghani A., Okruszko T., Pińskwar I., Kardel I., Hov Ø., Szcześniak M., Szwed M., Benestad R. E, Marcinkowski P., Graczyk D., Dobler A., Førland E. J., O’Keefe J., Choryński A., Parding K. M., Haugen J. E.

Acta Geophysica

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2018

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Vol. 66, no. 6

1509--1523

EN

The present paper offers a brief assessment of climate change and associated impact in Poland, based on selected results of the Polish–Norwegian CHASE-PL project. Impacts are examined in selected sectors, such as water resources, natural hazard risk reduction, environment, agriculture and health. Results of change detection in long time series of observed climate and climate impact variables in Poland are presented. Also, projections of climate variability and change are provided for time horizons of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 for two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in comparison with control period, 1971–2000. Based on climate projections, examination of future impacts on sectors is also carried out. Selected uncertainty issues relevant to observations, understanding and projections are tackled as well.

3

Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z. W., Choryński A.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2017

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Vol. 5, Iss. 2

21--30

EN

Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interest and importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRES family. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models under examination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).

4

Changes of snow cover in Poland

Szwed M., Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z. W., Graczyk D., Mezghani A.

Acta Geophysica

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2017

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Vol. 65, no. 1

65--76

EN

The present paper examines variability of characteristics of snow cover (snow cover depth, number of days with snow cover and dates of beginning and end of snow cover) in Poland. The study makes use of a set of 43 long time series of observation records from the stations in Poland, from 1952 to 2013. To describe temporal changes in snow cover characteristics, the intervals of 1952–1990 and of 1991–2013 are compared and trends in analysed data are sought (e.g., using the Mann–Kendall test). Observed behaviour of time series of snow-related variables is complex and not easy to interpret, for instance because of the location of the research area in the zone of transitional moderate climate, where strong variability of climate events is one of the main attributes. A statistical link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the snow cover depth, as well as the number of snow cover days is found.

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Changes of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

Kundzewicz Z. W., Stoffel M., Ruiz-Villanueva V., Ballesteros-Cánovas J. A., Wyżga B., Niedźwiedź T., Kaczka R., Łupikasza E., Spyt B., Janecka K., Pińskwar I., Choryński A., Zawiejska J., Mikuś P, Hajdukiewicz H.

Acta Geophysica

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2017

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Vol. 65, no. 4

799--807

EN

The present paper reviews selected outcomes of the FLORIST project devoted to flood risk in the region of the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains in Poland and summarizes novel results. The project encompassed theoretical, field, and modeling work. It was focused around observation-based hydroclimatology; projections for the future; dendrogeomorphology; as well as influence of transport of large wood on fluvial processes. The project improved understanding and interpreting changes in high-flow frequency and magnitude as well as changes in flood risk in the region, related to the presence of large wood in mountain streams. A unique database on past episodes of intense precipitation and flooding was created, harnessing multiple sources. The project showed that the analysis of tree rings and wood logs can offer useful information, complementing and considerably enriching the knowledge of river floods in the region of northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains. Retrospective and scenario-defined modeling of selected past fluvial events in the region was also performed.

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Floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains — A Polish-Swiss research project

Kundzewicz Z.W, Pińskwar I., Choryński A., Stoffel M, Ruiz-Villanueva V, Ballesteros-Canovas J.A, Kaczka R.J, Niedźwiedź T, Łupikasza E, Czajka B., Małarzewski Ł., Janecka K, Wyżga B, Mikuś P.

Acta Geophysica

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2014

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Vol. 62, no. 3

620--641

EN

The present paper introduces the topical area of the Polish–Swiss research project FLORIST (Flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains), informs on its objectives, and reports on initial results. The Tatra Mountains are the area of the highest precipitation in Poland and largely contribute to flood generation. The project is focused around four competence clusters: observation-based climatology, model-based climate change projections and impact assessment, dendrogeomorphology, and impact of large wood debris on fluvial processes. The knowledge generated in the FLORIST project is likely to have impact on understanding and interpretation of flood risk on the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, in the past, present, and future. It can help solving important practical problems related to flood risk reduction strategies and flood preparedness.

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Prognozy zmian klimatu i ich skutków

Kundzewicz Z. W., Pińskwar I.

Przegląd Komunalny

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2008

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nr 11

103-106

PL

Zaobserwowane zmiany klimatu, a zwłaszcza wzrost temperatury na Ziemi, wywołane są przede wszystkim zwiększeniem stężenia tzw. gazów cieplarnianych w atmosferze, które prowadzi do intensyfikacji efektu cieplarnianego. Wyniki wielu studiów zgodne są co do tego, że przy obecnie prowadzonej polityce i związanym z nią rozwoju gospodarczym atmosferyczne stężenie gazów szklarniowych będzie rosło przez następnych kilka dekad.