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1
Content available The probabilistic analysis of the remote monitoring systems of critical infrastructure safety
Zhulina S., Kuznetsova T., Kostogryzov A., Kurpatov O., Nistratov A., Nistratov G.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2017
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Vol. 8, No. 1
183--188
EN
The approach for probabilistic analysis of the remote monitoring systems (RMS) of critical infrastructure safety (CIS) is proposed. It allows to estimate the reliability and timeliness of information producing, the completeness, validity and confidentiality of the RMS information. In application to composed and integrated CIS with RMS and without RMS the earlier models, developed by authors, are used. The methods for evaluating influence of RMS quality on risk to lose CIS integrity are developed. Some effects of RMS applications in Russia are demonstrated.
2
Content available Analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems on the principles of system engineering
Kostogryzov A., Stepanov P., Nistratov A., Nistratov G., Zubarev I., Grigoriev L.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2016
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Vol. 7, No. 1
157--166
EN
The approach for analytical modelling operation processes of composed and integrated information systems is proposed. It allows to estimate the reliability and timeliness of information producing, the completeness, validity and confidentiality of the used information from users’ point of view. In application to composed and integrated systems the existing models are developed by introducing the space of elementary events for operation processes from system engineering point of view. It is intended for systems analysts for any IS. Some effects are demonstrated by examples.
3
Content available About accuracy of risks prediction and importance of increasing adequacy of used probabilistic models
Kostogryzov A., Nistratov A., Zubarev I., Stepanov P., Grigoriev L.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2015
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Vol. 6, No. 2
71--80
EN
The work purpose is the quantitative proof of importance and necessity of increasing adequacy of probabilistic models, described by probability distribution functions (PDF) of time between losses of system integrity. For purpose achievement the analysis of probabilistic metrics of risks and the elementary forms to establish an admissible risks is carried out, some ways of increasing an adequacy of probabilistic models for complex structures are described. Possibilities of extracting the latent knowledge from an adequate PDF are shown. Practical value of the researches are the revealed possibilities for a substantiation of more effective system decisions at the expense of increasing accuracy of risks prediction. Effects are demonstrated by examples.
4
Content available The systemic approach, based on the risks analysis and optimization, to research variants for developing hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions
Grigoriev L., Guseinov Ch., Kershenbaum V., Kostogryzov A.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2014
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Vol. 5, No. 1
71--78
EN
The original methodological approach based on the risks analysis and optimization is proposed to research variants for developing hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions. The basic analytical problems that are due to be solved by probabilistic modelling of processes are formulated. Input and otput allow to research different variants for developing hydrocarbon deposits of Arctic regions. Some effects are demonstrated by example.
5
Content available Applicable technologies to forecast, analyze and optimize reliability and risks for complex systems
Kostogryzov A., Nistratov G., Nistratov A.
Journal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association
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2012
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Vol. 3, No. 1
1--14
EN
The paper is concerned with the application of the original mathematical models and supporting them software technologies to forecast, analyze and optimize reliability and risks for complex systems (system is defined as a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes). Functionality and usability to analyze information system processes and standard processes in system life cycle are presented. Rational use of the proposed results allows to go «from a pragmatical filtration of information to generation of the proved ideas and effective decisions». Effects are demonstrated by examples.
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