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Operational setup of the soil-perturbed, time-lagged Ensemble Prediction System at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute

Duniec G., Interewicz W., Mazur A., Wyszogrodzki A.

Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications

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2017

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Vol. 5, Iss. 2

43--51

EN

The usage of Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)-based weather forecasts is nowadays becoming very popular and widespread, because ensemble means better represent weather-related risks than a single (deterministic) forecast. Perturbations of the lower boundary state (i.e., layers of soil and the boundary between soil and the lower atmosphere) applied to the governing system are also believed to play an important role at any resolution. As a part of the research project of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI), a simple and efficient method was proposed to produce a reasonable number of valid ensemble members, taking into consideration predefined soil-related model parameters. Tests, case studies and long-term evaluations confirmed that small perturbations of a selected parameter(s) were sufficient to induce significant changes in the forecast of the state of the atmosphere and to provide qualitative selection of a valid member of the ensemble members. Another important factor that added a significant increment to ensemble spread was the time-lagged approach. All these aspects resulted in the preparation of a well-defined ensemble based on the perturbation of soil-related parameters, and introduced in the COSMO model operational setup at the IMWM-NRI. This system is intended for the use in forecasters’ routine work.

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Influence of parameterization of soil processes on meteorological forecasts of vertical profiles

Duniec G., Mazur A.

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. S

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2016

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Vol. 23, nr 3

493--503

EN

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Quality of numerical weather forecast depends on good mapping of complex soil process (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation, thermal processes in the soil etc.) in parameterization soil schemes. Current parameterizations of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of the COSMO meteorological model) were prepared 30 years ago for numerical model with poor resolution. Nowadays operationally numerical models work with much better resolution. So, previous parameterization must have been improved or prepared from the beginning if it is expected improvement quality of numerical weather forecast. The influence of changing parameterization of water flux through the soil for “bare soil” case on vertical meteorological profiles is presented in this paper. This influence can be seen not only in weather forecasts, but also in any areas where the results of meteorological model(s) are used, like decision support systems in emergency situations or modeling of dispersion of air pollutants.

3

Modified description of soil processes vs. quality of numerical weather forecasts - “bare soil” case

Duniec G., Mazur A.

Ecological Chemistry and Engineering. S

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2015

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Vol. 22, nr 4

659--673

EN

Soil and atmosphere boundary layer (ABL) interact with each other and influence on physical processes in soil and atmosphere. Current parameterization of soil physical processes in TERRA_ML (multilayer soil module of COSMO meteorological model) was prepared more than 40 years ago and did not give satisfactory forecast results. New parameterizations should involve physical processes in the soil (microphysics processes in soil, fluid dynamics in porous media, soil dynamics, etc.), water cycle in soil and soil-plant-water relation. The aim of this project was to improve current soil parameterization in the COSMO model, called “TERRA_ML”. The results of the work, related to the parameterization of physical processes of bare soil evaporation, vertical and horizontal water transport in soil and a runoff from soil layers, are presented in this paper. In order to eliminate underestimation of evaporation from soil in the afternoon and overestimation evaporation from soil in the morning a correction time-depending factor was also introduced. In this way, theoretical description of vertical water transport in soil is improved with temperature dependency of hydraulic diffusivity for different sort of soil.

PL

Warstwy gleby i graniczna warstwa atmosfery (ABL) oddziałują ze sobą i wpływają na procesy fizyczne zarówno w glebie, jak i w atmosferze. Aktualny opis (parametryzacje) procesów fizycznych w glebie w modelu TERRA_ML (wielowarstwowy moduł gleby w modelu meteorologicznym COSMO) stworzono ponad 40 lat temu. W związku z tym obecnie zastosowane schematy parametryzacyjne nie dają zadowalających rezultatów (prognoz meteorologicznych). Nowe parametryzacje powinny uwzględniać procesy fizyczne w glebie (w tym mikrofizykę procesów w glebie, dynamikę płynów w ośrodkach porowatych, dynamikę gleby itp.), obieg wody w glebie i układzie gleba-roślinność-woda. Celem badań była poprawa obecnych parametryzacji TERRA_ML w modelu COSMO. W artykule przedstawiono wyniki pierwszej części prac, związanych z parametryzacją procesów fizycznych w przypadku parowania z powierzchni „gołej” gleby, pionowego i poziomego transportu wody w glebie oraz odpływania wody w głąb gleby. Teoretyczny opis transportu wodnego w glebie ulega poprawie wraz z uzależnieniem dyfuzji hydraulicznej dla różnych rodzajów gleby od temperatury. W celu wyeliminowania niedoszacowania parowania z gleby w okresie popołudniowym i przeszacowania - rano dodatkowo wprowadzono czynnik korygujący zależny od czasu, poprawiający wyniki parametryzacji.

4

Fizyka gleby w meteorologicznym modelu COSMO-LM : parametryzacja TILE i MOSAIC

Duniec G., Mazur A.

Przegląd Geofizyczny

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2013

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Z. 3-4

163--183

PL

W modelu COSMO (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) procesy fizyczne zachodzące pomiędzy dolną warstwą atmosfery a górną częścią gleby zostały sparametryzowane dwoma sposobami: model gleby i wegetacji TERRA oraz TERRA_ML. Od 2009 r. w Instytucie Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej – Państwowym Instytucie Badawczym (IMGW-PIB) testowane były dwie nowe parametryzacje, MOSAIC i TILE, które uwzględniają niejednorodności gleby w oczku siatki. W latach 2009 i 2010 testowano parametryzację typu MOSAIC (Duniec, Mazur, 2011), a w roku 2011 testowano parametryzacje TILE i MOSAIC (Duniec, Mazur, 2012). W celu sprawdzenia skuteczności obu parametryzacji testowano je na wyselekcjonowanych danych, które uzyskano w zróżnicowanych warunkach synoptycznych. Testy przeprowadzono przy użyciu różnych wersji kodu modelu z zaimplementowanymi nowymi parametryzacjami TILE i MOSAIC, z wykorzystaniem różnych schematów numerycznych oraz konwekcyjnych.

EN

In COSMO model (Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling) physical processes occuring between lower atmosphere and upper soil layers were parameterized via soil model TERRA and TERRA_ML (Doms et al., 2011). Since 2009 at the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) two new parameterizations, MOSAIC and TILE, (Ament 2006, 2008 and Ament and Simmer 2010, Duniec and Mazur 2011) have been tested. These parameterizations have taken into account non-homogeneities of the soil in a single grid. In 2009 and 2010 MOSAIC parameterization has been intensively tested (Duniec, Mazur, 2011) and tests were continued in 2011 with TILE parameterization. Tests were carried out using selected data from days with specific conditions. Different versions of the model code with both TILE and MOSAIC parameterizations implemented were used for tests, using various numerical and convection schemes.