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The Climate Change Impact on the Development of Droughts in Ukraine

Polevoy Anatoly, Barsukova Olena, Husieva Kateryna, Zhygailo Olena, Volvach Oksana, Kyrnasivska Nataliia, Tolmachova Alla, Zhygailo Taras, Danilova Nataliia, Kostiukievych Tetiana

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2024

Vol. 25, nr 6

194--205

The paper considers the peculiarities of the climate change influence on the dynamics of drought development in Ukraine. The analysis was performed for average long-term climatic conditions during the growing season (1981–2020) and under climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the period of 2021–2050 (for the period as a whole and by the decades: 2021–2030, 2031–2040, 2041–2050). The drought development was studied over relatively short periods of time (ten days) at the main agroclimatic regions of Ukraine (Polissia, Forest-Steppe, Northern and Southern Steppe). The assessment of the aridity of ten-day periods was accomplished by means of a set of aridity indicators by Selyaninov, Shashko, Budagovskiy and Bova, which corrects and supplements each other; this made it possible to consider in detail the genesis of climate-induced drought in the agroclimatic regions of Ukraine. Analysis of the study results showed that the development of drought conditions in all agroclimatic regions is expected as early as in the first decade (2021–2030). According to both scenarios, from 4–6 in Polissia to 16–17 severe and very severe droughts in the Southern Steppe are expected. In the second decade (2031–2040), under RCP4.5, improvement in moistening conditions is expected in Polissia and Forest-Steppe and under RCP8.5, an increase in the level of aridity is expected in these agroclimatic regions. In the Northern Steppe and Southern Steppe the number of moderately, very and extremely dry ten-day periods will increase (from 9 to 17). In the third decade (2041–2050), under the RCP4.5 scenario, very severe aridity conditions are assumed in all agroclimatic regions. Under RCP8.5, good moistening conditions and, according to both criteria, a small number of dry ten-day periods are expected in Polissia and Forest-Steppe. As for the conditions at the Northern and Southern Steppes very severe drought conditions are expected (from 8 to 17 ten-day periods with moderate, severe and very severe drought). For 2021–2050 on the whole, there will be an increase in aridity during the growing season in all agroclimatic regions of Ukraine.

Modeling Radiocesium Contamination of Sunflower Products in the Zaporizhzhia Region

Polevoy Anatolii, Lyashenko Galyna, Zhygailo Olena, Volvach Oksana, Zhygailo Taras, Popovych Iryna, Tolmachova Alla, Kolosovska Valeriya, Kostyukevych Tetyana, Barsukova Olena

Journal of Ecological Engineering

2023

Vol. 24, nr 4

279--287

The accident at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant was one of the most serious nuclear incidents in human history. A radioactive plume covered a whole strip of northeastern Europe. The consequences of this catastrophe are still being felt, both in Ukraine and around the world. The article is devoted to the assessment of the consequences of radiocesium contamination of agricultural lands and irrigated waters during a possible accident at the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the associated Cs137 contamination of sunflower products in the Zaporizhzhia region. The studies were carried out using a dynamic mathematical model for the formation of radionuclide activity in the "water-soil-plant-product" system, ECOSIS-87 (Ecoplant). The article presents the results of studies of possible contamination of the environment by radiocesium according the Chornobyl NPP-86 scenario and sunflower production by the method of mathematical dynamic modeling. The calculations were carried out on the basis of the results of an agrochemical and agroecological survey of the state of soils in Ukraine and the Dnipro cascade of reservoirs. If an explosion occurs at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the power of which will be equal to the Chornobyl NPP, then 100,000 hectares of agricultural land in the region will be taken out of the agricultural production of the Zaporizhzhia region. On agricultural lands where soil contamination with radiocaesium will be more than 5 Ci/km2, and the concentration in irrigated waters will reach 2 Bq/dm3, sunflower, which was grown for seeds to produce oil will need to be replaced with an industrial crop, which will also lead to loss of seed yield sunflower. Crop losses will lead to a decrease in the volume of sunflower oil. It should also be taken into account that the purification of soil and water does not occur in one year. At least in 5 years the situation will begin to improve.