Knowledge development and horizon scanning for strategic longterm planning in cyber security

• Autorzy: Göllner Johannes , Klerx Joachim , Mak Klaus

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.5604/23008741.1189270

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Existing foresight studies produce expectations regarding mid-term and long-term expectations about the future. In particular, in the cyber domain, these expectations tend to change accidently, caused by disruptive events. For reliable long-term strategic planning it is necessary to understand the dynamics of these changes. Our horizon scanning method is developed to address social needs, as well as scientific capabilities and technical solutions and will produce reliable knowledge about analysing weak signals for threats, disruptive events and long-term trends. Transparent, public knowledge about long-term trends is very important for the efficiency of each strategic long term planning activity in all supply chain networks and in relation to domain cyber space. In the last few decades, the ICT infrastructure did become ubiquitous for all supply chain networks, for all critical infrastructures and, in particular, for knowledge management in these domains. Each stakeholder has their own expectations about future trends and behaves in accordance with these expectations. Misleading expectations can cause flawed investments and political strategies. This publication will present a method for semi-automatic knowledge creation and sharing to increase knowledge about future developments and future needs in the system. This knowledge can support long term capability planning, research agenda setting, innovation management and strategic long term planning in cyber security. However, it is in the core of foresight not to predict the future of cyber security, but to build it. Thus, knowledge development and horizon scanning are support actions for strategic planning activities.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Knowledge development; Z-Model; multi-layer multiple vector model; horizon scanning; foresight; strategic long term planning; research agenda setting,; critical infrastructure; supply chain network protection; cyber security; information logistic; knowledge logistic; risk management; risk mapping

• Wydawca: Akademia Sztuki Wojennej
• Czasopismo: Security and Defence Quarterly
• Rocznik: 2015
• Tom: Vol. 7, No. 2
• Strony: 5--21
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 17 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Göllner Johannes

• Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports, National Defence Academy, Vienna, Austria

autor

Klerx Joachim

• AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Innovation Systems Department

autor

Mak Klaus

• Federal Ministry of Defence and Sports, National Defence Academy, Vienna, Austria

Bibliografia

• 1. Johannes Göllner, Andreas Peer, Manfred Gronalt, Gerald Quirchmayr. Risk analysis for supply chain networks. I3M: The 11 th International Multidisciplinary Modelling & Simulation Multiconference- HMS-track: Intermodal transportation systems and services, September 10-12, 2014 University of Bordeaux, France; http://www.msc-les.org/conf/i3m2014/i3m2014_program.pdf.
• 2. CentDoc: Department of Central Documentation and Information Service of theDepartment of Central Documentation and Information Service of the National Defence Academy at the Austrian Ministry of Defence and Sports.
• 3. The INNOSEC Project is supported and promoted within the security research programme of the European Commission (FP7-SEC-2012-285663). Parts of the article were taken from the deliverables which are referenced in the respective sections. We would like to thank all authors of the INNOSEC project for contributing to this article.
• 4. The ETTIS Project is supported and promoted within the security research programme of the European Commission (FP7-SEC-2011.6.3-1). Parts of the article were taken from the deliverables which are referenced in the respective sections. We would like to thank all authors of these deliverables for implicitly contributing to this article; however, the authors of this article take full responsibility for this publication.
• 5. Joachim Klerx, Andreas Kasztler and Jillian Yeow, “Strategic foresight and innovation management in security research”, upcoming in 2015.
• 6. Klerx, Joachim Göllner, Johannes, Mak, Klaus, Horizon Scanning for emerging risks in supply chain systems, in: Wilby, Blachfellner, Hofkirchner, Book of Abstracts, EMCSR-European Meetings on Cybernetics and Systems Research, S.601-607, Wien, 2014; vorgestellt im Rahmen der Präsentation auf der EMCSR 2014.
• 7. Hybridisation of Social Network Analysis in Context with other Methods for a Scenario Based Risk Analysis-Case Study: Critical Infrastructure for Energy Security in Austria (Johannes GOLLNER, Christian MEURERS, Andreas PEER, Guenter POVODEN). In: 7th Social Network Conference 2011 at the University of Greenwich, London, United Kingdom, 07/2011
• 8. Göllner, Johannes, Meurers, Christian, Peer, Andreas, Langer, Lucie, Kammerstetter, Markus: „Bedeutung des Risikomanagements für die Sicherheit von Smart Grids/Relevance of Risk Management for the Security of Smart Grids „ in Göllner, Johannes, Mak, Klaus, Meurers, Christian (Hrsg.): Viribus Unitis, Wissensmanagement - Ausgewählte Schriften, Militärwissenschaftliches Journal der Landesverteidigungsakademie, Band 16/2014, HDruckZ, Wien, 2014, p.179ff und Symposium Energieinnovation 2014, Technische Universität Graz, 2014,http://portal.tugraz.at/portal/page/portal/Files/i4340/eninnov2014/files/lf/LF_Meurers.pdf.
• 9. Göllner, Johannes, Meurers, Christian, Peer, Andreas (National Defence Academy) und Povoden, Günter (NBC-Defence School), result of the Austrian MoD-internal knowledge management/research project „Scenario planning and knowledge management at the Austrian Armed Forces, 2010-2022.
• 10. http://www.thefreedictionary.com.
• 11. Petersen, J. (2000) ‘Out of The Blue - How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises’ Madison Books.
• 12. Jaruzelski B. and Dehoff K. (2008) “Beyond Borders: The global innovation 1000”, Strategy and Business, No 53, Winter.
• 13. Joachim Klerx, Andreas Kasztler and Jillian Yeow, “Strategic foresight and innovation management in security research”, upcoming in 2015.
• 14. Project 840905-META RISK: Meta-Risk-Model for critical infrastructures (www.kiras.at). partly published in GÖLLNER, Johannes, BENESCH, Thomas, SCHAUER, et al. Framework for a Generic Meta Organisational Model. 14th FRAP - Finance, Risk and Accounting Management Perspectives Conference Oxford, U.K., 2014, paper Nr. 100.
• 15. Woitsch R., Mak K., Göllner J., Grundlagen zum Wissensmanagement im ÖBH Teil 2: Wissensbilanz als Steuerungsinstrument im ÖBH: Ein Evaluierungs-Rahmenwerk aus der Sicht praktischer Anwendungen. National Defence Academy, Vienna. 2010, ISBN 978-3-902670-47-2.
• 16. EU FP 7-Project: FOCUS- Foresight Security Scenarios: Mapping Research to a Comprehensive Approach to Exogenous EU Roles, Deliverable 5.2: EU 2035 roles related to critical infrastructure & supply chain protection. http://www.focusproject.eu/web/focus/wiki/-/wiki/THEMATIC_SCENARIO_SYLLABI/Scenarios+for+22EU+2035%22+roles+%28futuristic+mission+scenarios%29+as+a+security+provider.
• 17. Göllner, Johannes, Klerx, Joachim, Mak, Klaus, Meurers, Christian, 06.02.2015, based on the generic basic concept von Johannes Göllner, Joachim Klerx, Klaus Mak von 03/2012-04/2012 for EU-FP7 research proposal „SecScan“.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025)