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Projections of changes in heavy precipitation in the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains

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EN
Abstrakty
EN
Heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation events in the Tatra Mountains and their northern foothills may cause floods that propagate downstream in the Vistula River and inundate large areas of Poland. In a warmer climate, future precipitation extremes could be higher than they are today, hence the flood risk potential is likely to grow. Therefore, assessment of these future changes and adaptation to changes in flood risk are of considerable interest and importance. In this study, seven global climate models were used to get insight into a range of changes in the characteristics of mean and heavy precipitation: this was done for two climate scenarios – A1B and A2 of the SRES family. With the help of the so-called delta-change method and based on responses from global climate models, projections were made for 11 precipitation stations in the region. Analyses were made of various indices, such as annual totals, maximum 24 h, 5-day; 10-day, monthly maximum sums of precipitation and also numbers of days with intense precipitation equal or above the thresholds of 30 and 50 mm per day. It was found that all GCM models under examination projected an increase in mean annual precipitation totals as well as in heavy precipitation in the future time horizon studied here (2080-2100).
Twórcy
autor
  • The Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment of Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
  • The Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment of Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
  • The Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment of Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60-809 Poznań, Poland
Bibliografia
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  • 7. Łupikasza E., Niedźwiedź T., Pińskwar I., Ruiz-Villanueva V., Kundzewicz Z.W., 2016, Observed changes in temperature and precipitation and relationship between them, in the Upper Vistula Basin, [in:] Flood risk in the upper Vistula basin, Z.W. Kundzewicz, M. Stoffel, T. Niedźwiedź, B. Wyżga (eds.), Springer International Publishing, 155-187
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  • 11. Niedźwiedź T., Łupikasza E., Pińskwar I., Kundzewicz Z.W., Stoffel M., Małarzewski Ł., 2015, Variability of heavy rainfall events and related synoptic situations causing floods at the northern foothills of the Tatra Mountains, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 119 (1), 273-284, DOI: 10.1007/ s00704-014-1108-0
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  • 14. Seneviratne S.I., Nicholls N., Easterling D., Goodess C.M., Kanae S., Kossin J., Luo Y., Marengo J., McInnes K., Rahimi M., Reichstein M., Sorteberg A., Vera C., Zhang X., 2012, Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment, [in:] Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of working groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), C.B. Field, V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, P.M. Midgley (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York, 109-123
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Typ dokumentu
Bibliografia
Identyfikator YADDA
bwmeta1.element.baztech-408d19c7-6c7f-4457-834f-112c1640fa9a
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