Fighting recent inflation: An empirical literature review of monetary and governmental policies

• Autorzy: Haar Christoph

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.7494/manage.2024.25.1.7

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Inflation is a crucial issue for businesses and households, central banks and governments, in fact for all economic actors, as it has a strong impact on economic growth and welfare. This literature review captures how monetary policy and governmental policy can control inflation, how their measures work, and which are the key points to consider when conducting these policies, especially in times of crisis. It uses academic papers from the past eight decades, supplemented by publications from financial and economic institutions, but focuses on literature beginning with the 2000s to capture the latest methods and techniques to find out what drives inflation and how. Monetary policy and governmental policy should act together to effectively fight inflation. Monetary policy can have adverse effects on governments’ future tax revenues and debt-to-GDP ratios. Fiscal policy measures should be associated with altered government spending to avoid high inflation rates and/or high debt burdens in the future. Especially during and right after crises, measures have to be evaluated as too long support can fuel inflation in the future. Both parties should also take into account people’s inflation expectations, as these shape their economic behaviour.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

inflation; monetary policy; fiscal policy; governmental policy; policy instruments; policy effects; inflation expectations

• Wydawca: Wydawnictwa AGH
• Czasopismo: Managerial Economics
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 25, no. 1
• Strony: 7--54
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 128 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Haar Christoph

• Institute of Finance, University of Graz, Austria

Bibliografia

• [1] Acharya, V.V., Chauhan, R.S., Rajan, R. and Steffen, S. (2023) ‘Liquidity dependence and the waxing and waning of central bank balance sheets’, Working Paper 31050, National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2023, [Online], Available: http://www.nber.org/papers/w31050 [12 Jun 2024].
• [2] Aktas, Z., Kaya, N. and Özlale, Ü. (2010) ‘Coordination between monetary policy and fiscal policy for an inflation targeting emerging market’, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 29(1), pp. 123–138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2009.07.008.
• [3] An, S. and Schorfheide, F. (2007) ‘Bayesian analysis of DSGE models’, Econometric Reviews, vol. 26 (2–4), pp. 113–172, https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701220071.
• [4] Andrade, P., Gautier, E. and Mengus, E. (2023) ‘What Matters in Households’ Inflation Expectations?’, Journal of Monetary Economics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.05.007.
• [5] Arce, O., Hahn, E. and Koester, G. (2023) ‘How tit-for-tat inflation can make everyone poorer’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2023/html/ecb.blog.230330~00e522ecb5.en.html [27 Apr 2023].
• [6] Assadi, M. (2017) ‘The Implication of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions for the Price Levels: the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Revisited’, MPRA Paper 84851, University Library of Munich, Germany, Oct. 2017, [Online], Available: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890430 [12 Jun 2024].
• [7] Bachmann, R., Berg, T.O. and Sims, E.R. (2015) ‘Inflation Expectations and Readiness to Spend: Cross-Sectional Evidence’, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 7(1), pp. 1–35, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24465941 [12 Jun 2024].
• [8] Ball, L. and Mankiw, N.G. (1995) ‘What do budget deficits do?’, Working Paper 5263, National Bureau of Economic Research, September 1995, [Online], Available: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5263 [12 Jun 2024].
• [9] Banerjee, R.N., Boctor, V., Mehrotra, A. and Zampolli, F. (2022) ‘Fiscal deficits and inflation risks: the role of fiscal and monetary policy regimes’, BIS Working Papers 1028, Bank for International Settlements, July 2022, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1028.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [10] Bankowski, K., Bouabdallah, O., Checherita-Westphal, C., Freier, M., Jacquinot, P. and Muggenthaler, P, (2023) ‘Fiscal policy and high inflation’, ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 2/2023, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2023/html/ecb.ebart202302_01~2bd46eff8f.en.html [9 Mar 2023].
• [11] Barnichon, R. and Brownlees, C. (2019) ‘Impulse Response Estimation by Smooth Local Projections’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 101(3), pp. 522–530, https://doi.org/10.1162/rest_a_00778.
• [12] Barth, J.R. and Bennett, J.T. (1975) ‘Cost-push versus Demand-pull Inflation: Some Empirical Evidence: Comment’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 7(3), pp. 391–397, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1991632 [12 Jun 2024].
• [13] Bergholt, D., Furlanetto, F. and Vaccaro-Grange, E. (2023) ‘Did monetary policy kill the Phillips Curve? Some simple arithmetics’, Working Paper 2023/2, Norges Bank, Feb. 2023, [Online], Available: https://www.norges-bank.no/contentassets/6195e5c114d84928b9b01b71480239a5/wp-2-2023-phillipscurve.pdf?v=06022023124319 [12 Jun 2024].
• [14] Bernanke, B.S., Boivin, J. and Eliasz, P. (2005) ‘Measuring the effects of monetary policy: A factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 120(1), pp. 387–422, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25098739 [12 Jun 2024].
• [15] Blanchard, O. (2021) Macroeconomics, 8th edition, Pearson Education.
• [16] Board of Governors of The Federal Reserve System (2023) Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet, 2023, [Online], Available: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm [20 Apr 2023].
• [17] Bohn, H. (1998) ‘The behavior of U.S. public debt and deficits’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 113(3), pp. 949–963, http://www.jstor.org/stable/2586878 [12 Jun 2024].
• [18] Bordo, M.D. and Levy, M.D. (2020) ‘Do Enlarged Fiscal Deficits Cause Inflation: The Historical Record’, NBER Working Paper, No. 28195, December 2020, https://doi.org/10.3386/w28195.
• [19] Borio, C. and Zabai, A. (2018) ‘Unconventional monetary policies: a reappraisal’, in Conti-Brown, P. and Lastra, R.M. (ed.) Research Handbook on Central Banking, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp. 398–444, [Online], Available: https://ideas. repec.org/h/elg/eechap/16612_20.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [20] Borio, C., Lombardi, M.J., Yetman, J. and Zakrajsek, E. (2023) ‘The two-regime view of inflation’, BIS Papers number 133, Bank for International Settlements, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/b/bis/bisbps/133.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [21] Brunnermeier, M.K. (2009) ‘Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007–2008’, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 23(1), pp. 77–100, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/27648295 [12 Jun 2024].
• [22] Bundesministerium für Finanzen (2022a) ‘Regierung beschließt Abschaffung der kalten Progression’, [ Online], Available: https://www.bmf.gv.at/presse/pressemeldungen/2022/September/kalte-progression.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [23] Bundesministerium für Finanzen (2022b) ‘Gesamtübersicht über alle Entlastungspakete’, [Online], Available: https://www.oesterreich.gv.at/themen/steuern_und_finanzen/sonstige_beihilfen_und_foerderungen/entlastungspaket/gesamtuebersicht-entlastungspakete.html [14 Mar 2023].
• [24] Bundesministerium für Klimaschutz, Umwelt, Energie, Mobilität, Innovation und Technologie (2022) ‘Informationen für Haushalte und Privatpersonen’, [Online], Available: https://energie.gv.at/fuer-haushalte [14 Mar 2023].
• [25] Burke, M.A. and Ozdagli, A. (2021) ‘Household Inflation Expectations and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Panel Data’, Working Papers 2110, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, https://doi.org/10.24149/wp2110.
• [26] Caballero, R.J. and Krishnamurthy, A. (2008) ‘Collective risk management in a flight to quality episode’, The Journal of Finance, vol. 63(5), pp. 2195–2230, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/25094505 [12 Jun 2024].
• [27] Carlstrom, C.T., Fuerst, T.S. and Paustian, M. (2009) ‘Inflation persistence, monetary policy, and the great moderation’, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 41(4), pp. 767–786, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00231.x.
• [28] Cevik, S. and Miryugin, F. (2023) ‘It’s Never Different: Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation’, IMF Working Papers, WP23/98, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400242878.001.
• [29] Chin, K.-H. (2022) ‘Inflation persistence and monetary policy: DSGE-VAR approach’, The Manchester School, vol. 90(6), pp. 715–729, https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12420
• [30] Clarida, R., Galí, J. and Gertler, M. (1999) ‘The science of monetary policy: A new keynesian perspective’, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 37(4), pp. 1661–1707, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2565488 [12 Jun 2024].
• [31] Coibion, O., Georgarakos, D., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Rooij van, M. (2019) ‘How Does Consumption Respond to News about Inflation? Field Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial’, NBER Working Papers 26106, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26106.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [32] Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Kumar, S. (2018) ‘How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence’, American Economic Review, vol. 108(9), pp. 2671–2713, https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20151299.
• [33] Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (2022) ‘Fiscal policy in a time of high inflation’, [Online], Available: https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscalpolicy-time-high-inflation [24 Jan 2023].
• [34] Corsetti, G., Dedola, L. and Leduc, S. (2010) ‘Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies’, in Friedman, B.M. and Woodford, M. (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. 3, chapter 16, pp. 861–933, Elsevier, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/h/eee/monchp/3-16.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [35] Cukierman, A., Webb, S.B. and Neyapti, B. (1992) ‘Measuring the independence of central banks and its effect on policy outcomes’, The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 6(3), pp. 353–398, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/3989977 [12 Jun 2024].
• [36] D’Acunto, F., Hoang, D., Paloviita, M. and Weber, M. (2019) ‘Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations’, Working Paper Series in Economics 126, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/kitwps/126.html.
• [37] Del Negro, M.D., Eggertsson, G., Ferrero, A. and Kiyotaki, N. ‘The great escape? A quantitative evaluation of the fed’s liquidity facilities’, The American Economic Review, vol. 107 (3), pp. 824–857, https://doi.org/10.1257/ aer.20121660.
• [38] Deutsche Bundesbank (2023) ‘Fine-tuning operations’, [Online], Available: https://www. bundesbank.de/en/tasks/monetary-policy/open-marketoperations/regular-refinancing-and-fine-tuning-operations/fine-tuningoperations-625868 [15 Aug 2023].
• [39] Doulamis, E. and Colman, M. (2023) ‘Central Bank Hawks and Doves Cheat Sheet’, [Online], Available: https://www.itcmarkets.com/hawk-dove-cheatsheet-2/# [19 Apr 2023].
• [40] Dovern, J., Fritsche, U. and Slacalek, J. (2012) ‘Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 94(4), pp. 1081–1096, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/23355342 [12 Jun 2024].
• [41] El-Gamal, M. (2022) ‘Inflation Is Still A Monetary Phenomenon: A Wavelet Analysis of Inflation, Oil Prices and Money Supply’, Applied Economics Letters, vol. 0(0), pp. 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2022.2129040.
• [42] Eleftheriou, M. and Kouretas, G.P. (2023) ‘Monetary policy rules and inflation control in the us’, Economic Modelling, vol. 119, 106137, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106137
• [43] Elmendorf, D.W. and Furman, J. (2008) If, when, how: A primer on fiscal stimulus, The Hamilton Project, Strategy Paper, January 2008.
• [44] Epstein, G.A. and Schor, J.B. (1986) The divorce of the Banca d’Italia and the Italian Treasury: a case study of central bank independence, Discussion Paper Series, Harvard Institute of Economic Research.
• [45] European Central Bank (2016) ‘Targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/omo/tltro/html/index.en.html [15 Aug 2023].
• [46] European Central Bank (2018) ‘What is the main refinancing operations rate?’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me/html/mro.en.html [15 Aug 2023].
• [47] European Central Bank (2022) ‘Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/ecb.projections202206_eurosystemstaff~2299e41f1e.en.pdf [15 Aug 2023].
• [48] European Central Bank (2023a) ‘Annual consolidated balance sheet of the Eurosystem’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/annual-reports-financial-statements/annual/balance/html/index.en.html [20 Apr 2023].
• [49] European Central Bank (2023b) ‘Core HICP inflation forecasts’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/table_hist_core.en.html [20 Apr 2023].
• [50] European Central Bank (2023c) ‘Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP)’, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/implement/pepp/html/index.en.html [27 Mar 2023].
• [51] European Commission (2021) ‘REACT-EU’, [Online], Available: https://commission.europa. eu/funding-tenders/find-funding/eu-funding-programmes/react-eu_en# programme-features [16 Aug 2023].
• [52] European Commission (2022a) ‘Council Regulation (EU) 2022/1854 of 6 October 2022 on an emergency intervention to address high energy’, [Online], Available: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32022R1854 [24 Jan 2024].
• [53] European Commission (2022b) ‘Communication From the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions – REPowerEU: Joint European Action for more affordable, secure and sustainable energy’, [Online], Available: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:52022DC0108 [24 Jan 2024].
• [54] European Commission (2023) ‘The Recovery and Resilience Facility’, [Online], Available: https://commission.europa.eu/business-economy-euro/economic-recovery/recovery-and-resilience-facility_en [16 Aug 2023].
• [55] European Union (2016) ‘Consolidated version of the Treaty on Europea Union Protocol (No 4) on the Statute of the European System of Central Banks and of the European Central Bank’ [Online], Available: https://eurlex.europa.eu/eli/treaty/teu_2016/pro_4/oj [15 Mar 2023].
• [56] European Union (2001) ‘NextGenerationEU’, [Online], Available: https://next-generation-eu. europa.eu/index_en [16 Aug 2023].
• [57] Eurostat (2023) ‘Labour cost levels by NACE Rev. 2 activity (lc_lci_lev)’, [Online], Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/LC_LCI_LEVcustom_7701476/default/table?lang=en [6 Oct 2023].
• [58] Falck, E., Hoffmann, M. and Hürtgen, P. (2021) ‘Disagreement about inflation expectations and monetary policy transmission’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 118, pp. 15–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.08.018.
• [59] Ferguson, N., Kornejew, M., Schmelzing, P. and Schularick, M. (2023) ‘DP17858 The safety net: Central bank balance sheets and financial crises, 1587–2020’, [Online], Available: https://cepr.org/publications/dp17858 [15 Feb 2023].
• [60] Ferguson, T. and Storm, S. (2023) ‘Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy’, International Journal of Political Economy, vol. 52(1), pp. 1–44, https://doi.org/10.1080/08911916.2023.2191421 [12 Jun 2024].
• [61] Ferrara, L., Metelli, L., Natoli, F. and Siena, D. (2021) ‘Questioning the puzzle Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation’, Journal of International Economics, vol. 133, 103524, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103524.
• [62] Fritzer, F., Reiss, L. and Schneider, M. (2023) ‘What’s driving inflation in Austria? Energy imports, profits or wages?’ [Online], Available: https://www.oenb.at/dam/jcr:af826569-4be6-4b0f-8de6-1cc0c8011499/What-is-driving-inflation-in-Austria_Energy-imports-profits-or-wages. pdf [6 Oct 2023].
• [63] Glenn, L.M. and Samad, A. (2012) ‘Fiscal and Monetary Policies Interrelation and Inflation over the Long Run: Testing Sargent and Wallace’s View for the United States’, The Journal of Business Inquiry, vol. 11(1), pp. 58–70, [ Online], Available: https://journals.uvu.edu/index.php/jbi/article/view/242/215 [12 Jun 2024].
• [64] Godley, W. and Lavoie, M. (2012) Monetary economics: An integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth, Springer Science & Business Media.
• [65] Gonçalves, E. and Koester, G. (2022) ‘The role of demand and supply in underlying inflation – decomposing HICPX inflation into components’, ECB Economic Bulletin, vol. 7, [Online], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202207_07~8b71edbfcf.en.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [66] Goodfriend, M. (2007) ‘How the world achieved consensus on monetary policy’, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 21(4), pp. 47–68, [Online], Available: http://www. jstor.org/stable/30033751 [12 Jun 2024].
• [67] Gorodnichenko, Y. and Candia, B. (2021) ‘The Inflation Expectations Of U.S. Firms: Evidence From A New Survey’, CEPR Discussion Papers 16161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/16161.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [68] Greenwald, B.C. and Stiglitz, J.E. (1993) ‘Financial market imperfections and business cycles’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 108(1), pp. 77–114, https://doi.org/10.2307/2118496.
• [69] Greenwood, R., Hanson, S.G. and Shleifer, A. and Sørensen, J.A. (2022) ‘Predictable Financial Crises’, The Journal of Finance, vol. 77(2), pp. 863–921, https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13105.
• [70] Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014) ‘Inflation targeting monetary and fiscal policies in a two-country stock–flow-consistent model’, Cambridge Journal of Economics, vol. 38(4), pp. 839–867, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/24695043 [12 Jun 2024].
• [71] Grimm, M., Jordà, O., Schularick, M. and Taylor, A.M. (2023) ‘Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability’, NBER Working Papers 30958, National Bureau of Economic Research, https://doi.org/10.3386/w30958.
• [72] Gudmundsson, T., Mrkaic, M. and Barkema, J. (2020) ‘Output gaps in practice: Proceed with caution’, [Online], Available: https://cepr.org/voxeu/ columns/output-gaps-practice-proceed-caution [3 May 2023].
• [73] Guerrieri, V. and Shimer, R. (2014) ‘Dynamic adverse selection: A theory of illiquidity, fire sales, and flight to quality’, The American Economic Review, vol. 104(7), pp. 1875–1908, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/42920874 [12 Jun 2024].
• [74] Gürkaynak, R.S., Kısacıkoğlu, B. and Lee, S.S. (2022) ‘Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory’, CFS Working Paper Series 679, Center for Financial Studies (CFS), [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfswop/679.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [75] Horton, M. and El-Ganainy, A. (2019) ‘Fiscal Policy: Taking and Giving Away’, [Online], Available: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/Series/Back-to-Basics/Fiscal-Policy [15 Aug 2023].
• [76] International Monetary Fund (2021) ‘Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic’, [Online], Available: https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Databasein-Response-to-COVID-19 [6 Oct 2023].
• [77] Ireland, P.N. (2004) ‘Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 86(4), pp. 923–936, https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653043125158.
• [78] Jahan, S. and Mahmud, A.S. (2013) ‘What is the output gap?’, Finance and Development, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2013/09/basics.htm [3 May 2023].
• [79] Jordà, Ò. (2005) ‘Estimation and inference of impulse responses by local projections’, American Economic Review, vol. 95(1), pp. 161–182, https://doi.org/10.1257/0002828053828518.
• [80] Jørgensen, P.L. and Ravn, S.H. (2022) ‘The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?’, European Economic Review, vol. 141, 103982, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103982.
• [81] Kelleher, D. and Basil, P. (2023) ‘Federal reserve policies and systemic instability: Decoupling asset pricing from underlying risks’, [Online], Available: https://bettermarkets.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/BetterMarkets_Federal_Reserve_Instability_Report_01-17-2023.pdf [15 Feb 2023].
• [82] Keynes, J.M. (1973) The General Theory of Employment, 14th edition, Interest and Money, Macmillan.
• [83] Klein, M. and Linnemann, L. (2020) ‘The time-varying effect of fiscal policy on inflation: Evidence from historical US data’, Economics Letters, vol. 186, 108823, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108823.
• [84] Kliem, M., Kriwoluzky, A. and Sarferaz, S. (2016) ‘Monetary-fiscal policy interaction and fiscal inflation: A tale of three countries’, European Economic Review, vol. 88, pp. 158–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2016.02.023.
• [85] Kocherlakota, N.R. (2022) ‘Stabilization with fiscal policy’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 131, pp. 1–14, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.07.007.
• [86] Kopp, C.M. (2022) ‘Terms of Trade (TOT): Definition, Use as Indicator, and Factors’, [Online], Available: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/terms-of-trade.asp [3 May 2023].
• [87] Kotzé, K. (2019) ‘Structural vector autoregression models’, [Online], Available: https://kevinkotze.github.io/ts-8-svar/[17 May 2023].
• [88] Kurnia, A.S., Izzulhaq, S., Maharda, J.B. and Kunaedi, A. (2021) ‘Inflation and Financial Stability Trade-off: Role of Monetary Policy Credibility and Fiscal Cyclicality’, Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, vol. 40(1), pp. 31–53, https://doi.org/10.1111/1759-3441.12297.
• [89] Kwon, G., McFarlane, L. and Robinson, W. (2009) ‘Public Debt, Money Supply, and Inflation: A Cross-Country Study’, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 56(3), pp. 476–515, [Online], Available: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40377808 [12 Jun 2024].
• [90] Lanne, M. (2015) ‘Noncausality and inflation persistence’, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, vol. 19(4), pp. 469–481, https://doi.org/10.1515/snde-2013-0108.
• [91] Lanne, M. and Saikkonen, P. (2013) ‘Noncausal vector autoregression’, Econometric Theory, vol. 29(3), pp. 447–481, 14694360, http://www.jstor.org/stable/23470171 [12 Jun 2024].
• [92] Lieb, L. and Schuffels, J. (2022) ‘Inflation expectations and consumer spending: the role of household balance sheets’, Empirical Economics, vol. 63(5), pp. 2479–2512, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02222-8.
• [93] Malmendier, U. and Nagel, S. (2015) ‘Learning from Inflation Experiences’, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 131(1), pp. 53–87, https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjv037.
• [94] Mankiw, N.G. and Reis, R. and Wolfers, J. (2004) ‘Disagreement about Inflation Expectations’, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, vol. 18, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 209–270, [Online], Available: https://ideas. repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/11444.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [95] Marques, C. (2004) ‘Inflation persistence: facts or artefacts?’, Working Paper Series 371, European Central Bank, 2004, [Online:], Available: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp371.pdf [12 Jun 2024].
• [96] Matsumura, M. (2022) ‘What price index should central banks target? An open economy analysis’, Journal of International Economics, vol. 135, 103554, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103554.
• [97] Mello, M. and Ponce, J. (2023) ‘Fiscal Policy and Inflation Expectations’, Journal of Applied Economics & Business Research, vol. 13(1), pp. 26–44, [Online], Available: https://www.cemla.org/PDF/ic/2021-07-jrp/Uruguay_PonceMello_JRP2020.pdf [12 Jun 2024].
• [98] Michau, J.-B. (2019) ‘Monetary and fiscal policy in a liquidity trap with inflation persistence’, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control, vol. 100, pp. 1–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2018.12.006.
• [99] Mishkin, F.S. (2021) The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, Global Edition, Pearson.
• [100] Montes, G.C. and Hollanda Lima de, N.T. (2022) ‘Discretionary fiscal policy, fiscal credibility and inflation risk premium’, Quarterly Review of Economics & Finance, vol. 85, pp. 208–222, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2021.01.006.
• [101] Nicita, A. (2013) ‘Exchange rates, international trade and trade policies’, International Economics, vol. 135–136, pp. 47–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2013.10.003.
• [102] OECD (2022) ‘General government fiscal balance’, [Online], Available: https://www. oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/42c624f3-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/42c624f3-en [20 Apr 2023].
• [103] Parliament of Australia (2021) ‘Bracket creep and its fiscal impact’, [Online], Available: https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Budget_Office/Publications/Budget_explainers/Bracket_creep [14 Mar 2023].
• [104] Pasimeni, P. (2022) ‘Supply or Demand, that is the Question: Decomposing Euro Area Inflation’, Intereconomics, vol. 57(6), pp. 384–393, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1092-z.
• [105] Peterdy, K. (2022) ‘Government Guarantee’, [Online], Available: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/commercial-lending/government-guarantee/ [15 Aug 2023].
• [106] Ramsey, F.P. (1928) ‘A mathematical theory of saving’, The Economic Journal, vol. 38(152), pp. 543–559, https://doi.org/10.2307/2224098
• [107] Reis, R. (2020) ‘The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations’, Discussion Papers 2033, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/cfm/wpaper/2033.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [108] Reis, R. (2022a) ‘The burst of high inflation in 2021–22: How and why did we get here?’, BIS Working Papers 1060, Bank for International Settlements, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/1060.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [109] Reis, R. (2022b) ‘Has Monetary Policy Cared Too Much about a Poor Measure of r-star?’, [Online], Available: https://abfer.org/media/abferevents-2022/ampf/Ricardo-Reis-ampf-paper.pdf [12 Jun 2024].
• [110] Rockoff, H. (2008) ‘Price Controls’, Econlib’, [Online], Available: https:// www.econlib.org/library/Enc/PriceControls.html [15 Aug 2023].
• [111] Rüdinger, A. (2023) ‘Exiting the energy crisis: Lessons learned from the energy price cap policy in France’, Intereconomics, vol. 58(1), pp. 5–9.
• [112] Rumler, F. and Valderrama, M.T. (2020) ‘Inflation Literacy and Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Austrian Household Survey Data’, Economic Modelling, vol. 87, pp. 8–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.06.016.
• [113] Santacreu, A.M. and LaBelle, J. (2022) ‘Global Supply Chain Disruptions and Inflation During the COVID-19 Pandemic’, vol. 104(2), pp. 78–91, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec. org/a/fip/fedlrv/93685.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [114] Sargent, T.J. and Wallace, N. (1981) ‘Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic’, Quarterly Review, vol. 5(Fall), [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedmqr/y1981ifallnv.5no.3.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [115] Sinai, A., Orszag, P.R. and Rubin, R.E. (2004) ‘Sustained budget deficits: longer-run US economic performance and the risk of financial and fiscal disarray’, AEA-NAEFA Joint Session, Allied Social Science Associations Annual Meetings, The Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum, “National Economic and Financial Policies for Growth and Stability”, Sunday, January 4, 2004, San Diego, CA, [Online], Available: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/20040105.pdf [12 Jun 20024].
• [116] Soyres de, F., Santacreu, A.M. and Young, H.L. (2022) ‘Demand-Supply imbalance during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of fiscal policy’, Working Papers 2022-019, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/94714.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [117] Stokman, A. (2023) ‘Accelerating inflation expectations of households in the euro area: Sources and macroeconomic spending consequences’, Applied Economics Letters, [Online], Available: https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2023.2208827.
• [118] Taylor, J.B. (1999) ‘A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules’, in Monetary Policy Rules’, NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, pp. 319–348.
• [119] The Government of the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg (2020) Cross-border workers and Luxembourg, [Online], Available: https://luxembourg.public.lu/en/work-and-study/employment-in-luxembourg/luxembourg-jobmarket.html [2 May 2023].
• [120] Totonchi, J. (2011) ‘Macroeconomic Theories of Inflation’, 2011 International Conference on Economics and Finance Research IPEDR, vol. 4, pp. 459–462.
• [121] Trading Economics (2023) ‘Euro Area Inflation Rate’, [Online], Available: https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/inflation-cpi [6 Oct 2023].
• [122] Vellekoop, N. and Wiederholt, M. (2019) Inflation expectations and choices of households. SAFE Working Paper Series 250, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/safewp/250.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [123] Visco, I. (2023) ‘Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area’, Atlantic Economic Journal, vol. 51, pp. 111–129.
• [124] Walsh, C.E. (2022) ‘Inflation Surges and Monetary Policy’, IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/22-e-12.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [125] Weber, M., D’Acunto, F., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Coibion, O. (2022) ‘The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 36(3), pp. 157–184. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.3.157.
• [126] World Nuclear Association (2023) ‘Nuclear Power in France’, [Online], Available: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/countryprofiles/countries-a-f/france.aspx [6 Oct 2023].
• [127] Wu, J.C. and Xie, Y. (2023) ‘(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy’, Staff Working Papers 23-6, Bank of Canada, [Online], Available: https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/23-6.html [12 Jun 2024].
• [128] Zezula, P. (2021) ‘Hauptkomponentenanalyse (Principal Component Analysis)’, [Online], Available: https://md.psych.bio.uni-goettingen.de/mv/unit/fa/pca.html [24 July 2023].

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024)