Hellenic air - space violations by Turkish aircraft: A statistical assessment and a forecast

• Autorzy: Symeonidis Vasileios , Zombanakis George Andrew

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.35467/sdq/128224

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper aims to assess the extent to which repeated attacks against sovereign Hellenic air space by Turkey along with the inevitably ensuing engagements between aircraft of the two sides follow a certain predetermined pattern of behaviour that can be detected based on a given statistical model, and if so, to what extent this pattern is predictable in terms of its intensity and the frequency of incidents. To this end, we use the Weibull statistical distribution as an appropriate tool for interpreting and quantifying the pattern of aggressive Turkish behaviour and calculating probabilities of occurrences. Based on this choice, we then proceed with a forecast of this behaviour in the near future. We provide specific mathematical formulae that can be readily used to calculate probabilities and forecast air space violations and engagements. Our models, based on historical data, assume that both Hellenic air space violations and engagement incidents will keep increasing but will inevitably reach a monthly maximum, constrained by the availability of property and human resources on the Turkish side. The conclusions drawn point to the fact that Turkey will at some point in the near future reach its capacity limits in terms of property and human resources used in such offensive exercises, and that there is very little that can be done to enhance the margins of such activities given the room provided by the Turkish economy, which seem to be prohibitive.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

Turkey; Greece; air; space; violations

• Wydawca: Akademia Sztuki Wojennej
• Czasopismo: Security and Defence Quarterly
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: Vol. 32, No. 5
• Strony: 7--18
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Symeonidis Vasileios

• Department of Science and Mathematics, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece

• https://orcid.org/https%3A//orcid.org/0000-0001-8967-0163

autor

Zombanakis George Andrew

• 2 Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, The American College of Greece, 6, Gravias street GR-153 42, Aghia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece

• https://orcid.org/https%3A//orcid.org/0000-0003-3137-2029

Bibliografia

• 1. Allen, L. (2007) An introduction to mathematical biology. New Jersey: Prentice Hall/Pearson.
• 2. Anderson, D., Sweeney, D., Williams, T., Camm, J., and Cochran, J. (2018) Statistics for business & economics. Boston: Cengage Learning.
• 3. Doulos, D., Katsaitis, O. and Zombanakis G. A. (2020) ‘How to make butter out of guns: The Turkish case and the Greek bitter lesson’. The 2020 International Society of Military Sciences Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 27-29 October, 2020.
• 4. Edelstein-Keshet, L. (1988) Mathematical models in biology. New York: Random House.
• 5. Hellenic Air Force General Staff (2020) Violations of national airspace – Infringements of Air Traffic Regulations ICAO. Available at: https://geetha.mil.gr/paravase... (Accessed: 20 September, 2020).
• 6. Hellenic Air Force Database (2020) Available at: https://geetha.mil.gr/paravase... (Accessed: 20 September, 2020).
• 7. IMF (2020) Country Reports, Turkey. Available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Countri... (Accessed: 10 October, 2020).
• 8. McKendrick, A. G. and Kesava Pai, M. (1912) ‘XLV.—The rate of multiplication of micro-organisms: A mathematical study’. Proceedings of the Royal Society of Edinburgh, 31, pp. 649–653.
• 9. McCool, J. (2012) Using the Weibull distribution: Reliability, modeling, and inference. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley & Sons.
• 10. OECD (2020a) Turkey Economic Snapshot, Available at: http://www.oecd.org/economy/tu... (Accessed: 20 September, 2020).
• 11. OECD (2020b) Turkey. Available at: https://data.oecd.org/turkey.h... (Accessed: 15 September, 2020).
• 12. Rinne, H. (2009) The Weibull distribution. A handbook. Boca Raton, FL: Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
• 13. Weibull, W. (1951) ‘A statistical distribution function of wide applicability’. Journal of Applied Mechanics, Transactions of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 18(3), pp. 293– 297.

Uwagi

„Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).”