Probability mapping of petroleum occurrence with a multivariate-Bayesian approach for risk reduction in exploration, Nanpu Sag of Bohay Bay Basin, China

• Autorzy: Hu Suyun , Guo Qiulin , Chen Zhuoheng , Mi Shiyun , Xie Hongbin
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

A multivariate-Bayesian approach has been applied to the Nanpu Sag of the Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, to evaluate probability of oil occurrence. The geological data from 343 exploratory wells and seismic interpretations that were available at the end of 2004 were used for the purpose. Seventeen wells were drilled after the evaluation in 2005, sixteen of which reached their target horizon. Eight of the nine wells drilled in areas with a predicted high probability of hydrocarbon occurrence (>50%) encountered commercial oil, indeed; post-drilling analysis indicated that seven of these eight wells yielded high flow rates from thick net pay, and that one of these wells yielded a low flow rate. Seven wells were drilled in areas with a predicted relatively low probability (<50%) of oil occurrence; three of them were dry and four recovered oil with relatively low flow rates. Comparison of the post-drilling results with the pre-drilling prediction suggests that the multivariate-Bayesian approach can help visualize geological risk, thus improving exploration success by optimizing the drilling strategy.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

oil exploration; risk visualization; well planning; Nanpu Sag; probability map

PL

poszukiwanie ropy naftowej; wizualizacja ryzyka; Nanpu Sag; mapa prawdopodobieństwa

• Wydawca: Uniwersytet im. Adama Mickiewicza. Instytut Geologii
• Czasopismo: Geologos
• Rocznik: 2009
• Tom: Vol. 15, No. 2
• Strony: 91--102
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 24 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Hu Suyun

• Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China

autor

Guo Qiulin

• Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China

autor

Chen Zhuoheng

• Geological Survey of Canada, Calgary, AB T2L 2A7, Canada

autor

Mi Shiyun

• Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China

autor

Xie Hongbin

• Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration & Development, PetroChina, Beijing 100083, China

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2019).