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Pomiar poziomu koncentracji potencjału rozwojowego regionów w Polsce: wartość i dynamika w latach 2010-2017 oraz prognoza do 2020 r

Nadolny Michał

Biuletyn Komitetu Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania Kraju PAN

2019

No 273

44-58

The aim of the paper is to measure and forecast concentration of regional development potential on a regional basis. The study covered 14 GUS features, which measure the development potential. The forecast, nominal values and processes’ dynamics were calculated for data from 2010 to 2020, using author made method. The study reveals that key factors determining the diversification of the distribution of the potential include the relation of large agglomerations to their regional surroundings. Therefore, we are dealing with growth poles with different impact levels. Since 2010, the process of concentrating potential in Poland has taken different directions. In poorly developed regions, we observe constant distribution values. Most regions, especially those with medium and high levels of economic development, are characterized by a dynamic increase in the level of concentration 5% to 6% annually. This means that the growth poles «move away» from their surroundings and strengthen their position. Simultaneously, they slightly reduce the distance to the strongest developed region in Poland (Mazowsze). By 2020, these trends will remain unchanged, however regions with a moderately low level of development will observe the fastest growth.