Has the Internet Saved the Economy? Modeling Impact of ICT Sector and COVID-19 on GDP

• Autorzy: Olender-Skorek Magdalena , Szałański Michał , Sylwestrzak Marek

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.26636/jtit.2021.157821

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

This paper presents the influence of the COVID19 pandemic on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita for the 27 countries of the European Union. A panel model with fixed effects was applied to a dataset from 2010 to 2020. The analysis covered 13 independent variables, including nine related to the telecommunications market, and assessed their impact on GDP per capita. A variable related to the number of COVID-19 deaths per one thousand inhabitants was then added to the model. The results showed that COVID-19 is a significant factor and is negatively correlated with GDP per capita. The analysis described in the article has also shown that the importance of the ICT sector increased during the pandemic, i.e. the household broadband Internet variable became statistically significant.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

COVID-19; European Union; GDP; ICT sector

• Wydawca: Instytut Łączności - Państwowy Instytut Badawczy
• Czasopismo: Journal of Telecommunications and Information Technology
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: nr 4
• Strony: 61--67
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 21 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Olender-Skorek Magdalena

• National Institute of Telecommunications, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4831-6122

autor

Szałański Michał

• National Institute of Telecommunications, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3131-6193

autor

Sylwestrzak Marek

• National Institute of Telecommunications, Warsaw, Poland

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8962-8168

Bibliografia

• [1] M. Olender-Skorek, „Czwarta rewolucja przemysłowa a wybrane aspekty teorii ekonomii", Nierówności Społeczne a Wzrost Gospodarczy, vol. 51, pp. 38-49, 2017 (DOI: 10.15584/nsawg.2017.3.3) [in Polish].
• [2] E. Mączyńska and E. Okoń-Horodyńska, „Przedsiębiorstwo i jego otoczenie w obliczu czwartej rewolucji przemysłowej - Wyzwania, szanse i zagrożenia", Przegląd organizacji, vol. 1, pp. 9-21, 2020 (DOI: 10.33141/po.2020.01.01) [in Polish].
• [3] T. Zalega, „Nowe trendy konsumenckie jako przejaw innowacyjnych zachowań współczesnych konsumentów", Nierówności Społeczne a Wzrost Gospodarczy, vol. 46, pp. 202-225, 2016 (DOI: 10.15584/nsawg.2016.2.11) [in Polish].
• [4] ITU, „The economic impact of broadband and digitization through the COVID-19 pandemic. Econometric modelling", 2021 [Online]. Available: https://www.itu.int/dms pub/itu-d/opb/pref/D-PREF-EF.COV ECO IMPACT B-2021-PDF-E.pdf
• [5] ITU, „How broadband, digitization and ICT regulation impact the global economy. Global econometric modeling", 2020 [Online]. Available: https://www.itu.int/dms pub/itu-d/opb/pref/D-PREF-EF.BDR-2020-PDF-E.pdf
• [6] G. Singh and S. Garg, „Affect of Covid-19 on telecom sector in India - A review", PalArch's J. of Archaeology of Egypt/Egyptology, vol. 17, no. 6, pp. 13206-13213, 2020 [Online]. Available: https://archives.palarch.nl/index.php/jae/article/download/3399/3390/6555
• [7] S. Sale, R. Wood, and T. Rebbeck, „COVID-19 will lead telecoms revenue to decline by 3.4% in developed markets in 2020", Analysys Mason Report, 2020 [Online]. Available: https://www.analysysmason.com/research/content/short-reports/covid-19-operator-revenue-impact/
• [8] M. Karpowicz, „COVID-19 pandemic and Internet traffic in Poland: evidence from selected regional networks", J. of Telecommun. And Informat. Technol., vol. 3, pp. 86-91, 2021 (DOI: 10.26636/jtit.2021.15472).
• [9] R. Solow, „A contribution to the theory of economic growth", The Quarterly J. of Economics, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 65-94, 1956 (DOI: 10.2307/1884513).
• [10] I. Telega, „Trwałość w modelu wzrostu Solowa. Analiza krytyczna", Zeszyty Naukowe/Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, vol. 12, pp. 21-33, 2012 [Online]. Available: http://www.krakow.pte.pl/pliki/zn-pte-nr-12/zn-12telega.pdf [in Polish].
• [11] P. Kaczmarczyk, „Econometric modelling and forecasting of the Polish ICT sector development with regard to macroeconomic indicators", Roczniki Kolegium Analiz Ekonomicznych, vol. 45, pp. 259-272, 2017 [Online]. Available: http://rocznikikae.sgh.waw.pl/p/roczniki kae z45 19.pdf [in Polish].
• [12] M. Próchniak and B. Witkowski, „Digitalizacja i internetyzacja a wzrost gospodarczy", Working Paper DELab UW, vol. 4, 2016 [Online]. Available: https://www.delab.uw.edu.pl/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/digitalizacja i internetyzacja.pdf [in Polish].
• [13] M. König and A. Winkler, „COVID-19: Lockdowns, Fatality Rates and GDP Growth Evidence for the First Three Quarters of 2020", Intereconomics, vol. 56, no. 1, pp. 32-39, 2021 (DOI: 10.1007/s10272-021-0948-y).
• [14] B. Baltagi, Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons, 2008 (ISBN: 9783030539535).
• [15] W. Greene, Econometric Analysis, New Jersey: Pearson Education, 2003 (ISBN: 9780130661890).
• [16] S. Seabold and J. Perktold, „Statsmodels: Econometric and statistical modeling with Python", Proc. of the 9th Python in Sci. Conf. SciPy, Austin, TX, USA, 2010, vol. 57, pp. 92-96 [Online]. Available: http://conference.scipy.org/proceedings/scipy2010/pdfs/seabold.pdf
• [17] C. Harris et al., „Array programming with NumPy", Nature, vol. 585, pp. 357-362, 2020 (DOI: 10.1038/s41586-020-2649-2).
• [18] W. McKinney, „Data structures for statistical computing in Python", Proc. of the 9th Python in Sci. Conf. SciPy, 2010, vol. 445, pp. 56-61 [Online]. Available: http://conference.scipy.org/proceedings/scipy2010/pdfs/mckinney.pdf
• [19] R. Zbyrowski, „Szacowanie wartości nieruchomości na podstawie modeli ekonometrycznych", Equilibrium. Quarterly J. of Economics and Economic Policy, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 241-252, 2010 (DOI: 10.12775/EQUIL.2010.019).
• [20] J. Hunter, „Matplotlib: A 2D graphics environment", Comput. In Sci. & Engineer., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 90-95, 2007 (DOI: 10.1109/MCSE.2007.55).
• [21] M. Waskom, „Seaborn: statistical data visualization", J. of Open Source Software, vol. 6, no. 60, pp. 1-4, 2021 (DOI: 10.21105/joss.03021).

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2024).