The forecasting of volumes of foreign currency loans granted to individual entrepreneurs in Poland in the aspects of economic security

• Autorzy: Kozicki Bartosz , Jaśkiewicz Paweł

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.37055/pno/130383

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the article, the author raises the issue of the forecast of volumes of foreign currency loans granted in Poland to individual entrepreneurs on the basis of original data gathered from the National Bank of Poland, in the aspects of economic security. The research was initiated with the analysis and evaluation of time series within the volumes of foreign currency loans in Poland for individual entrepreneurs between 2012 and 2017. An outlier was detected and it was changed to the arithmetic mean of an element from the previous series and the following one. Then, the analyzed series was divided into two parts. As a result of the assessment made, forecasting was carried out, with the use of various methods, of the first part of an isolated time series composed of 60 elements and, after that, the best prognostic method was selected. Based on this method, the forecasting of the original time series was made for 2018 - 12 prospective periods.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

foreign currency loan; forecasting

PL

kredyt walutowy; prognozowanie

• Wydawca: Wojskowa Akademia Techniczna im. Jarosława Dąbrowskiego
• Czasopismo: Przegląd Nauk o Obronności
• Rocznik: 2020
• Tom: R. 5, Nr 9
• Strony: 64--78
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 15 poz., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Kozicki Bartosz

• Faculty of Security, Logistics and Management at the Military University of Technology in Warsaw, gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 01-476 Warszawa

• https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6089-952x

autor

Jaśkiewicz Paweł

• International Cooperation Department of the Military University of Technology in Warsaw, gen. Sylwestra Kaliskiego 2, 01-476 Warszawa

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8863-6948

Bibliografia

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Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).