Selection of Evacuation Scenarios for Evacuation Simulations

• Autorzy: Tofiło P. , Cisek M
• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

The current practice of fire safety engineering analysis often comes down to the comparison of the available safe evacuation time (ASET) and the required safe evacuation time (RSET) in order to determine whether the criterion of acceptability in a form of an adequate safety margin of time has been met. Analysis of fire dynamics and evacuation usually takes place separately although there are also tools to simultaneously simulate the development of fire and evacuation of people. In both cases however it is essential to develop such an evacuation scenario that is the most unfavorable but nonetheless plausible and representative for the building in question. The worst case scenario is understood here as the most unfavorable combination of the input parameters. Assuming such a scenario for analysis is most probably putting the designer on the safe side, usually however the selection of scenario parameters and assumptions is often accompanied by disputes and controversies between the designing and the verifying parties regarding the realism of the assumed scenario. The paper presents a more refined methodology that can be used to facilitate the analysis of RSET involving a range of defined scenarios differing with probability. The choice of values for each main scenario parameter is represented by conditional event tree functions. The probability of a given level for each variable is based on data obtained from research or actual events or failing that, on the expert judgment. Numerical analysis of all predefined evacuation scenarios (taking into account all possible combinations of input parameters) is carried out for a selected case study – a 3 storey school building. A variation of obtained evacuation times is presented. Variables having the greatest impact on the final outcome of the simulation are discussed. Results are further expressed by a Weibull cumulative probability distribution function. The use of the analytical methodology with the use of event trees is discussed as a tool in the process of negotiations involving the evacuation scenario with the verifying and approving institutions.

• Wydawca: Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej
• Czasopismo: Zeszyty Naukowe SGSP / Szkoła Główna Służby Pożarniczej
• Rocznik: 2012
• Tom: Nr 44
• Strony: 99--109
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 6 poz., rys., tab.

Twórcy

autor

Tofiło P.

• Katedra Bezpieczeństwa Budowli SGSP

autor

Cisek M

• Katedra Badań Bezpieczeństwa SGSP

Bibliografia

• [1] BS 7974:2001 – Application of fire safety engineering principles to the design of buildings – Code of practice.
• [2] Life Safety Code NFPA 101 2006 – Performance Based Option.
• [3] Notarianni K.A., Perry G.W., Uncertainty: SFPE Fire Protection Engineering Handbook, 4th Ed, 2008 SFPE.
• [4] Hurley M. J., Rosenbaum, E.R., Performance Based Design: SFPE Fire Protection Engineering Handbook 4th Ed, 2008 SFPE.
• [5] Hadjisophocleous G.V, Mehaffey J.R., Fire Scenarios: SFPE Fire Protection Engineering Handbook, 4th Ed, 2008 SFPE.
• [6] Lord J., Meacham B., Moore A., Guide for evaluating the predictive capabilities of computer egress models – NIST GCR 06-886, 2005.