An Approach for Flow Forecasting in Ungauged Catchments – A Case Study for Ho Ho reservoir catchment, Ngan Sau River, Central Vietnam

• Autorzy: Kha D. D. , Nhu N. Y. , Anh T. N.

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.12911/22998993/85759

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

Reservoir inflow forecasting with high reliability plays an important role in the operation and management of the reservoir for power generation, irrigation, flood prevention as well as ensuring the safety of the dam. However, the level of forecast accuracy is limited, since its performance depends on rainfall forecasting and hydrological model. In order to increase the efficiency of forecasting, this study introduces the inflow forecasting method that integrates the real-time updating techniques with continuous optimization method of MIKE NAM model to specify the appropriate parameter set for forecasting time. The proposed forecasting method was tested for the Ho Ho reservoir, the area facing the scarcity of historical data for model calibration and verification. The analysis of the forecasting results for Ho Ho reservoir using transferred parameters from the stable calibrated parameter values at Hoa Duyet station (downstream of Ho Ho reservoir) and the results obtained using the adapted parameters by the proposed method shows that the adapted parameter values provides a more reliable forecast, which will better serve the decision making.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

real time updating; flood; forecasting; ungauged catchment

• Wydawca: Polskie Towarzystwo Inżynierii Ekologicznej ; Lublin University of Technology
• Czasopismo: Journal of Ecological Engineering
• Rocznik: 2018
• Tom: Vol. 19, nr 3
• Strony: 74--79
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 13 poz., rys.

Twórcy

autor

Kha D. D.

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam

autor

Nhu N. Y.

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam

autor

Anh T. N.

• Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam
• Center For Environmental Fluid Dynamics, VNU University of Science, Vietnam National University, Hanoi, 334 Nguyen Trai, Thanh Xuan, Hanoi, Vietnam

Bibliografia

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• 3. Anh L.T., Son N.T. 2015. Some experiences for applying Hydrological, Hydraulic models to Hydrologic Forecasting, Journal of Science VNU. Natural Sciences and Technology, 31(1S) (in Vietnamese)
• 4. Bardossy A. 2007. Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungagged catchments. Hydrol. Earth Syst, Scie., 11, 703-710.
• 5. DHI Water & Environment. 2004. MIKE 11 Reference Manual.
• 6. Giang N.T. Phuong T.A. 2010. Calibration and verification of a hydrological model using event data, VNU Journal of Science, Earth Science, 26. (in Vietnamese).
• 7. Hapuarachchi H.A.P., Wang Q.J.A. 2008. Review of Methods and Systems Available for Flash Flood Forecasting; Report for the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO): Dickson, Australia.
• 8. Kamel A.H. 2008. Application of a hydrodynamic MIKE 11 model for the Euphrates River in Iraq. Slovak Journal of Civil Engineering, 2, 1-7.
• 9. Keskin F., Sensoy A.A., Sorman A. 2007. Application of MIKE11 Model for the Simulation of Snowmelt Runoff in Yuvacik Dam Basin, Turkey. International Congress on River Basin Management, The role of general directorate of state Hydraulic works (DSI) in development of water resources of Turkey.
• 10. Krishna B. 2014. Comparison of wavelet based ANN and regression models for reservoir inflow forecasting. J Hydrol Eng, 19(7), 1385-1400.
• 11. Liu H.L., Chen X., Bao A.M., Ling Wang. 2007. Investigation of groundwater response to overland flow and topography using a coupled MIKE SHE/ MIKE 11 modeling system for an arid watershed. Journal of Hydrology, 347, 448-459.
• 12. Long V.D., Anh T.N., Binh H.T., Kha D.D. 2010. An introduction to flood forecast technology in Ben Hai and Thach Han river systems using MIKE 11 model. Vietnam National University Journal of Science, 26(3S), 397-404.
• 13. Sanjeet K., Mukesh K.T., Chandranath C., Ashok M. 2015. Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Ensemble Models Based on Neural Networks, Wavelet Analysis and Bootstrap Method. Water Resour Manage, 29, 4863-4883, doi: 10.1007/s11269- 015-1095-7.

Uwagi

Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).