Exponential Dispersion accelerated degradation modelling and reliability assessment considering initial value and processes heterogeneity

• Autorzy: Tian Runcao , Zhang Fan , Du Hongguang , Wang Peng

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.17531/ein/191432

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

In the production and operation, inherent variability and uncertainty necessitate addressing unit-to-unit heterogeneity in initial performance values and degradation processes. This article presents a bi-stochastic exponential dispersion process (BS-ED) designed to account for heterogeneity in both initial performance values and degradation processes. First, based on the ED process, the time and acceleration covariates are introduced to form a nonlinear accelerated ED process, and a random effect coefficient associated with the accelerated stress is incorporated to consider the heterogeneity of the process. Meanwhile, through the modelling of degradation time-shift, a degradation model considering the stochastic initial value of the product performance is developed. To effectively conduct the statistic inference of the BS-ED process, an improved stochastic EM algorithm is proposed, and the information matrix and Ito calculus are combined to estimate the confidence intervals. Finally, the stability of the method is verified by simulation and analyzed by two real cases.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

stochastic processes; accelerated testing; degradation modeling; parameter estimation

• Wydawca: Polskie Naukowo-Techniczne Towarzystwo Eksploatacyjne
• Czasopismo: Eksploatacja i Niezawodność
• Rocznik: 2024
• Tom: Vol. 26, no. 4
• Strony: art. no 191432
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 37 poz., rys., tab., wykr.

Twórcy

autor

Tian Runcao

• School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, China

• https://orcid.org/0009-0008-5212-2911

autor

Zhang Fan

• Institute of Science and Technology Innovation, Civil Aviation University of China, China
• Key Laboratory of Civil Aviation Aircraft Airworthiness Certification Technology, Civil Aviation University of China, China

• https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8532-0233

autor

Du Hongguang

• School of Safety Science and Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, China

• https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9040-0621

autor

Wang Peng

• Institute of Science and Technology Innovation, Civil Aviation University of China, China

• https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8738-0602

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