Simulation of the MW =7.9 Gulf of Alaska earthquake on January 23, 2018, by the stochastic fnite fault model

• Autorzy: Qicheng Li , Shupeng Yuan , Xinjuan Zheng

Identyfikatory

DOI

10.1007/s11600-021-00562-0

• Języki publikacji: EN

Abstrakty

EN

On the premise of constraining the seismogenic fault structure of a future large earthquake, we proposed using empirical equations to determine the length, width, seismic moment and slip distribution of a large seismogenic fault plane and using the stochastic fnite fault model to predict future large earthquakes. The ground motion time histories and response spectra recorded by 12 seismic stations on bedrock during the MW =7.9 Gulf of Alaska earthquake on January 23, 2018, were simulated. The simulation error determined by the average ratio of the simulated spectrum amplitude to the recorded spectrum amplitude varied between 1.08 and 0.92 in the period range of 0–10 s, and the standard deviation of the simulation error at diferent frequencies did not exceed 1; the 95% confdence interval also did not change signifcantly with the period. The above analyses show that our simulation results refect the mean ground motion. To further discuss the reliability of predicting future large earthquakes by the stochastic fnite fault model, we redistributed the initial rupture point and slip distribution on the seismogenic fault plane by the quasi-random method, and the simulation errors and simulation results of the redistribution model were similar to those of the previous model. Further research confrmed that our method for obtaining the seismic source parameters is viable and that the stochastic fnite fault model for the prediction of future large earthquakes is reliable, especially for large far-feld earthquakes. The seismic stations that we used are all situated on bedrock on one side of the fault and do not involve rupture directivity, i.e., the seismic wave pathways may be similar, so the simulation results are ideal. However, if the rupture directivity, diferent site conditions, surface topography and basin efects are considered, it will be necessary to amend the proposed method.

Słowa kluczowe

EN

earthquake; simulation; spectrum; stochastic finite fault model; seismogenic fault

PL

trzęsienie ziemi; symulacja; widmo

• Wydawca: Instytut Geofizyki PAN ; Springer
• Czasopismo: Acta Geophysica
• Rocznik: 2021
• Tom: Vol. 69, no. 2
• Strony: 415--425
• Opis fizyczny: Bibliogr. 35 poz.

Twórcy

autor

Qicheng Li

• Mining College, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, Liaoning, China

• https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3656-1275

autor

Shupeng Yuan

• Mining College, Liaoning Technical University, Fuxin 123000, Liaoning, China

autor

Xinjuan Zheng

• Chaoyang Technical School, Chaoyang 122000, Liaoning, China

Bibliografia

• 1. Atkinson GM (1995) Attenuation and source parameters of earthquakes in the cascadia region. Bull Seismol Soc Am 85:1327–1342
• 2. Atkinson GM, Beresnev IA (1998) Compatible ground-motion time histories for new national seismic hazard maps. Can J Civ Eng 25:305–318
• 3. Atkinson GM, Boore DM (1997) Stochastic point-source model of ground motions in the Cascadia region. Seismol Res Lett 68:74–85
• 4. Atkinson GM, Silva W (1997) An empirical study of earthquake source spectra for California earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:97–113
• 5. Beresnev IA, Atkinson GM (1997) Model finite-fault radiation from the spectrum. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:67–84
• 6. Beresnev IA, Atkinson GM (1998a) FINSIM: a FORTRAN program for simulating stochasstic acceleration time histories from finite faults. Seismol Res Lett 69:27–32
• 7. Beresnev IA, Atkinson GM (1998b) Stochastic finite- fault model of ground motions from the 1994 northridge, California, earthquake I. Validation on rock sites. Bull Seismol Soc Am 88(6):1392–1401
• 8. Boore DM (1983) Stochastic simulation of high-frequency ground motion on seismological models of the radiated spectra. Bull Seismol Soc Am 73:1865–1894
• 9. Boore DM (1986) Short-period P-and-S-wave radiation from large earthquakes: implications for spectral scaling relations. Bull Seismol Soc Am 76:43–64
• 10. Boore DM (2003) Simulation of ground motion using the stochastic method. Pure Appl Geophys 160(3–4):635–676
• 11. Boore DM (2016) Determining generic velocity and density models for crustal amplification calculations, with an update of the generic site amplification for VS(Z)=760 m/s. Bull Seismol Soc Am 106:316–320
• 12. Boore DM, Atkinson G (1987) Stochastic prediction of ground motion and spectral response parameters at hard-rock sites in eastern North America. Bull Seismol Soc Am 77:440–467
• 13. Boore DM, Joyner WB (1997) Site amplifications for generic rock sites. Bull Seismol Soc Am 87:327–341
• 14. Boore DM, Thompson EM (2015) Revisions to some parameters used in stochastic-method simulations of ground motion. Bull Seismol Soc Am 105:1029–1041
• 15. Boore DM, Joyner WB, Fumal TE (1997) Equations for estimating horizongtal response spectra and peak acceleration from western north american earthquakes: a summary of recent work. Seism Res Lett 69:128–153
• 16. Chin B, Aki K (1991) Simultaneous study of the source, path, and site effects on strong ground motion during the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake: a preliminary result on pervasive nonlinear site effects. Bull Seismol Soc Am 81:1859–1884
• 17. Hanks TC, Bakun WH (2002) A bilinear source-scaling model for M-log A observations of continental earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am 92(5):1841–1846
• 18. Hanks TC, Kanamori H (1979) A moment magnitude scale. J Geophys Res 84(B5):2348–2350
• 19. Hanks TC, McGuire RK (1981) The character of high frequency strong ground motion. Bull Seismol Soc Am 71:2071–2095
• 20. Harzell SH (1978) Earthquake aftershocks as Green’ functions. Geophys Res Lett 5:1–4
• 21. Heaton TH, Hartzell SH (1989) Estimation of strong ground motions from hypothetical earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone Pacific Northwest. Pure Appl Geophys 129(1):131–201
• 22. Hutchings L (1994) Kinematic earthquake models and synthesized ground motionusing empirical Green’s functions. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84:1028–1050
• 23. Irikura K (1983) Semi-empirical estimation of strong ground motions during large earthquakes. Bull Disaster Prev Res Inst Kyoto Univ 33(2):63–104
• 24. Irikura K (2004) Recipe for predicting strong ground motions from future large earthquakes. Disaster Prev Res Inst Ann Kyoto Univ 47(A):25–45
• 25. Lu SN, Changhai Z, Lili X (2013) Characteristics of duration of ground motion during the Wenchuan earthquake. J Earthq Eng Eng Vib 33(2):1–7 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 26. Motazedian D, Atkinson GM (2005) Stochastic finite-fault modeling based on a dynamic corner frequency. Bull Seismol Soc Am 95(3):995–1010
• 27. Qu Guoyan Yu, Ruifang, (2018) Simulation method of earthquake ground motion based on frequency-dependent amplitude envelope function and its influence on the structural nonlinear responses. J Vib Eng 31(2):198–208 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 28. Schneider JF, Silva WJ, Stark C (1993) Ground motion model for the 1989 M6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake including effects of source, path, and site. Earthq Spectra 9:251–287
• 29. Somerville PG, Irikura K, Graves R, Sawada S, Wald D, Abrahamson N, Iwasaki Y, Kagawa T, Smith N, Kowada A (1999) Characterizing earthquake slip models for the prediction of strong ground motion. Seismol Res lett 70(1):59–80
• 30. Wang HY (2014) Study on variation of soil site amplification with depth: a case at Treasure Island geotechnical array, San Francisco bay. Chin J Geophys 57(5):1498–1509 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 31. Wang SQ, Yu RF, Li XJ (2019) Simulation method of ground motion matching for multiple targets and effects of fitting parameter variation on the distribution of PGD. Earthq Struct 16(5):563–573 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 32. Wells D, Coppersmith K (1994) New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area and surface displacement. Bull Seismol Soc Am 84(4):974–1002
• 33. Yao XD, Zhang WB, Yu XW (2015) Simulation of near-field strong ground motion caused by the 2008 Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake. ChinJ Geophys 58(3):886–903 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 34. Yu RF, Shi HT, Sun JE, Zhang DF, Yu YX (2020) Comprehensive evaluation of ground motion parameters for dam site based on stochastic finite fault method. China Civ Eng J 53(7):1–11 (in Chinese with English abstract)
• 35. Zeng Y, Anderson JG, Yu G (1994) A composite source model for computing realistic strong ground motions. Geophys Res Lett 21:725–728